A new national unity government is to be formed in Yemen by mid-September, according to a deal between Yemeni President Abd Rabu Mansour Hadi and Abdel-Malik Al-Houthi, leader of the Houthi group that has been fighting against the government. Under the deal, the price of fuel will be lowered, an important concession to Houthi demands. The group has organised demonstrations against government plans to remove subsidies on petroleum products and widespread corruption. Thousands of Houthi supporters, most of them armed, are still in camps around the capital Sanaa and plan to remain there in to ensure that the deal is implemented. One day before the deal was reached last Tuesday, the Houthis, a Shia group, took further steps to topple the government. At the same time, the group challenged the international community and the UN Security Council, which has threatened to sanction them. On Monday, thousands of Houthi supporters closed the streets leading to government buildings in Sanaa in an attempt to force the government to step down. In response, Hadi accused Iran of planning to “destroy Sanaa” through its support for the Shia Houthis in the “same way that Damascus and Baghdad have been destroyed.” “There is a state in the region that wants to cause chaos in Sanaa as it has in Damascus and Baghdad,” Hadi said Monday at a meeting in Sanaa, making an apparent reference to Iran. The new deal may lower the risk of such chaos occurring, but there are several possible outcomes. In the worst-case scenario, the conflicting parties, including the Houthis and their allies and the Yemen Muslim Brotherhood and its allies, will fail to implement the deal, as has happened with previous agreements. Should this happen, the Houthis may take control of Sanaa by force and establish an Iranian-supported Shia state south of the Sunni kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This scenario would mean the end of Yemen's national dialogue and the possible secession of the country's southern region. In the best-case scenario, the deal will be implemented, the transition period completed, and a state based on respecting the rights and liberties of all established. Between these two scenarios, the most likely outcome is maintenance of the present situation and management of hostilities between the Houthis and the Brotherhood-backed Al-Islah Party and the Salafists. Al-Houthi ignored Hadi's statement earlier this week, even though he and one of his aides, Abu Ali Ahakem, were mentioned by name as the “spoilers” of the transition. The UN Security Council also called on the Houthis to withdraw their forces from Amran and return the area to government control. They were asked to cease all armed hostilities against the government in the Al-Jawf area and dismantle the checkpoints they have erected in and around Sanaa. The Security Council restated its readiness to sanction individuals, groups and entities that have not cut their ties to Al-Qaeda and associated groups. It reiterated its support for Hadi in his efforts to address the concerns of all parties within the framework of the national dialogue conference. The council also urged the Yemeni authorities to expedite the process of reforms, including army and security sector reform. It recalled UN Security Council Resolution 2140 of 2014 that urged the early adoption of a law on transitional justice and national reconciliation and the need for a draft of the new constitution to be passed for review without delay, so a referendum can be held in a timely manner. It also sent out a strong message to groups working to spoil the political transition, urging them to refrain from any actions that might worsen the already fragile situation. It welcomed efforts made by the Gulf Cooperation Council and the international community to support the transition in Yemen.
