Whether or not the Islamic State (IS) is connected with the regime led by Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad, and if so in what manner, is a matter for debate. Some Syrians believe that IS is a front for the Syrian regime and Iran, while others believe that only part of the organisation may be run by Syrian intelligence. Others maintain that Al-Qaeda and like-minded groups could not have made headway in Syria without the regime's obstinacy and the uprising against it by its opponents. IS has grown beyond all expectations. Enriched by the sale of Syrian oil and emboldened by the seizure of weapons belonging to the Iraqi and Syrian armies, IS is now a threat to the governments of both Baghdad and Damascus. It has become a cause of concern both inside and outside the region. The Syrian regime is no longer able to keep the organisation at bay, and some say that IS forces are now in control of 40 per cent of Syria, practically becoming a state within the state. The regime and its militias have failed to stop the advance of IS, whose thirst for blood has shocked the world, and yet the regime has also been trying to capitalise on the threat by offering to cooperate with the international community to stop the group's advance. Damascus has also urged the Americans to come to its rescue, saying that both the US and Syria have a stake in fighting terrorists. Not so long ago the official view in Damascus was that the Syrian uprising was a terrorist movement supported by the Americans. Now the rhetoric has changed to suit the interests of a regime that has killed almost a quarter of a million people to stay in power. Al-Assad sent a message to the US through his foreign minister, Walid Al-Muallem, expressing his willingness to coordinate with regional and world powers to defeat IS and Al-Nusra Front, a breakaway group from Al-Qaeda. He apparently said that he did not object to the west intervening in Syria if the aim is to obliterate the terrorist groups and if any such action is coordinated with the regime. US President Barack Obama has rejected the offer, saying that the Syrian people are not obliged to choose between the regime and IS. He reiterated Washington's promise to stand by the moderate Syrian opposition in the current conflict. Louay Hussein, leader of the Build the State Current, an opposition group, was contemptuous of regime attempts to lure the west to its assistance. “The Syrian regime has helped terrorist groups congregate in Syria in the hope of regaining the legitimacy it lost because of its acts of repression,” he said. It has long been trying to get the west to recognise it as a partner in the fight against terror. But if the regime wanted aerial attacks on terrorist bases, he said, it did not need the west's help since the Syrian air force could get the job done. Said Hussein, “The regime can use its own air force is it wants such strikes. What it really wants is an international mandate to fight terror in order to try to restore its own legitimacy.” But it is unlikely that the international community will come to the aid of a regime that has lost credibility with its own people, a quarter of whom have been displaced during the last three years. With the exception of Iran and the Lebanese Shia group Hizbullah, the Syrian regime has no friends in the region. Although the US is not prepared to put troops on the ground in Syria to help the opposition, it is unlikely to take the side of the regime in the current conflict. The US is more likely to try to boost the power of the moderate opposition to the point where the regime is on the verge of collapsing and then to encourage talks on a handover of power. But none of this is likely to happen in the near future. Obama has made it clear that the formation of an effective strategy in Syria is a long-term objective. In general, the US has been vague about the best way to confront IS. While aerial attacks seem to be the preferred option for now, they do not seem to be the only possible recourse. US officials have also been talking to tribal leaders in Syria. The possibility of strengthening the Free Syrian Army has been discussed, and concerted action by the tribes, the FSA, and Saudi-backed moderate Islamist groups cannot be ruled out. Maged Habbu, a member of the National Coordination Committee for Democratic Change (NCCDC), has expressed concerns that the fight against IS may overshadow the battle to unseat Al-Assad. “The IS threat must be confronted by an international and regional alliance. However, there are fears that the west may try to rehabilitate the Syrian regime, presenting it as a force that is combatting terror,” Habbu said. Habbu added that he could not rule out clandestine cooperation between Washington and the regime in the fight against IS. Fahd Al-Masri, director of the Centre for Strategic, Security, and Military Studies on Syria, said that the war in Syria has already achieved much of its purpose, which was to destroy the Syrian army and exhaust both Iran and Hizbullah. “The regional and international forces that forced Syria into this war of attrition can now feel pleased with themselves as Al-Assad has destroyed the army and the country and turned Syria into a failed state,” he said. The war has drained the resources not only of Syria, but also of Russia, Hizbullah, and Iran. Preparations for the post-Al-Assad era should now begin, he added. “The US is likely to take action in Syria against IS and the regime in order to end Al-Assad's rule in the country. The post-Al-Assad phase has started, and it is likely that IS will now retreat from the country,” Al-Masri said. Cairo is likely to play a major role in future arrangements in Syria, he added. “Cairo will make a forceful comeback, resuming its natural regional role. It will take control of the political dossier and the next peace conference on Syria will be in Cairo and not Geneva.” Another Syrian opposition member, Said Moqbel, said that air strikes alone will not obliterate IS or resolve the Syrian crisis and claimed that Washington was well aware of the Syrian regime's role in encouraging the terrorist groups. “Aerial bombing cannot stop IS or end the terror that is spreading in the region,” Moqbel said. While blaming US “wavering” for recent IS victories, he voiced hopes that concerted action by local and international players could stop the group in its track. “The US has to carry out a surgical operation against the IS, something that calls for real support from the Syrian people and for the unification of the moderate Syrian opposition. There is a need to end Iran's involvement in the Middle East, confront Hizbullah, and eliminate the Al-Assad regime,” Moqbel said. American intervention in Syria now could boost the fortunes of the Al-Assad regime and would not help restore peace to the country unless it is part of a clear strategy for the post-Al-Assad phase, he added. What is needed is for all sides, including the Americans, to start planning a comprehensive strategy that leads to a political settlement. This is likely to mean putting pressure on the parties to make concessions, the only way, perhaps, of pulling Syria back from the abyss.
