Over the past few weeks, leaders of the Syrian opposition have been telling everyone who cares to listen that “sophisticated” American weapons are on their way. They have been particularly hoping for smart anti-aircraft missiles that could deter the regime led by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad from bombarding opposition-held areas. However, there is little evidence that such weapons are going to be delivered to what the West considers to be “moderate” resistance groups, such as those associated with the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (NCSROF). In fact, most Western officials still voice fears that high-grade weaponry may fall into the wrong hands if it is delivered to Syria in the current conditions of chaos and mayhem. Since Al-Nusrah Front and the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), two Islamist groups, started operating in Syria, moderate groups fighting the Al-Assad regime have receded from the scene. Although the West has kept talking to the leaders of the NCSROF and the Free Syrian Army (FSA), little has been done to boost the military power of the moderates who often find themselves fighting against both the regime and its jihadist opponents without much success. Yet, NCSROF leaders who have recently visited the US now claim that the delivery of crucial weapons capable of changing the course of the conflict is imminent, even if these claims do not tally with the tepid reception given NCSROF officials in Washington or the statements made by US President Barack Obama himself. The American president has refrained from making any reference to the delivery of weapons to the moderate rebels. Two weeks ago, Obama made a speech in which he said that he supported the opposition and hoped for a peaceful solution to the conflict in Syria. Although he called Al-Assad “a dictator,” he seemed to be more concerned about the Jihadists who have been streaming into Syria than the opposition's ability to bring down the regime. Western diplomatic sources have mentioned the possibility of the US giving the moderate opposition high-grade weaponry. But the consensus among Western diplomats is that the groups associated with the NCSROF are not in a position to guarantee that any sophisticated weapons they receive will not fall into the wrong hands. Some sources have hinted that any weapons delivered to the rebels may not be channelled through the NCSROF, widely considered to be the umbrella for the moderate groups, but instead to selected armed outfits that would be vetted through independent channels. Following the election of Al-Assad to a third term in office earlier this month, US National Security Advisor Susan Rice said that the US was providing both lethal and non-lethal help to “moderate rebels.” This was the first time a top US official had said that Washington was sending weapons to Syria. But the devil is in the details. The term “lethal” can mean anything from ammunition and light weaponry to smart rockets that could deter the regime's air force from bombarding rebel-held zones. Rice declined to comment on how “lethal” the US help was. According to Western sources, the US is providing just as much assistance as is required for the “moderates” to roll back the Jihadists. Toppling the regime does not seem to be a US priority. One reason for the US caution is that Washington is concerned about the possible outcome of the recent conflict. If Syria is allowed to fall apart, a likely outcome is that the regime – backed by Iran and Hizbullah – may carve out a section of the country while the Jihadists of the Al-Nusrah Front and the ISIS, both affiliated with Al-Qaeda, may retain control of other parts. The rest of the country may be left to the FSA, although the Syrian Kurds may also insist on a chunk of their own. Some military aid is said to be on its way, according to one moderate commander who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly on condition of anonymity. The West, he said, was training 700 fighters every week from Syrian army deserters in a neighbouring country. Of those, about 300 are being selected for further training. They are tested first in order to ensure that they are “moderate” enough to serve Western goals. Some observers claim that even smart anti-aircraft rockets may not now be enough to turn the course of battle, however. The regime, they note, has thousands of rockets that it can use against any section of Syria it deems threatening. NCSROF member Yehya Maktabi said that the regime had used rockets already in battle, but without success. Speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly, he said that “the Syrian regime is now using all types of lethal weapons against the Syrian people and the FSA, including internationally banned weapons such as poison gas. It is using surface-to-surface missiles and Scuds that can reach most areas which it gets from Russia and Iran.” Maktabi said that the opposition could stop the regime in its tracks if it acquired quality anti-aircraft missiles, which he wanted to see delivered through the NCSROF and FSA. “All weapons deliveries must be made through the Staff Command. Offering the weapons directly to selective rebel groups would undermine the opposition's unity,” he said. Abdel-Razeq Eid, Director of the Damascus Declaration Association, said that the NCSROF was exaggerating the anticipated weapons delivery. Speaking to the Weekly, he said that “NCSROF leaders keep talking about the great things they are doing for the revolution simply because they don't want to admit their failures.” Molla Omeir, deputy commander of the Revolutionary Military Council in Deir Al-Zur, said that his troops, now engaged in battle against the ISIS, had received no Western aid, military or otherwise. Speaking to the Weekly, he said that the “ISIS is a terror group, and yet it is receiving generous cash and military support from the Syrian and Iranian regimes, while we get nothing.” Mohannad Al-Hosni, Chairman of the Syrian Human Rights Society, said that the Syrian people had risen up in the cause of freedom and not to see international powers bargain with the regime over chemical weapons. “The Syrians do not seek help from the Americans. They haven't sacrificed their sons for the sake of aid or for [the removal of] chemical weapons from the country,” he said. For now, the jury is still out on whether “lethal” aid is really on its way, or how “lethal” this is likely to be. But it is already clear that Washington and its Western friends are more concerned about the perils of the Jihadists than the fortunes of the moderates or the safety of ordinary Syrians.
