The diplomatic breakthrough everyone has been hoping for in Geneva II, as the Syrian peace talks are commonly known, has failed to materialise, leaving the country's opposition — once again — with the uncomfortable realisation that to remove the regime they have been battling for nearly three years they will have first to defeat it. The military option is back, but direct involvement by the US or its Western allies is currently out of the question. If fighting on the ground is the only available option, then the opposition must get the weapons and training it needs to stay in the game. Saudi Arabia is poised to offer Syrian anti-government groups shoulder-held anti-armour and anti-aircraft missiles, said opposition sources. The US, too, is reportedly willing to train thousands of Syrian fighters in Jordan, and then send them back home across the border. According to opposition sources, plans have been made to transfer hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees from Jordan to a border area inside their country, under protection of elite troops. A no-fly zone is also contemplated to ensure the protection of the refugees once they are relocated. Borhan Ghalyun, a leading figure in the National Coalition of Syrian and Revolutionary Opposition Forces (NCSROF), expects anti-government fighters to receive high-performance weapons in the near future. “Providing the Free Syrian Army (FSA) or some of its battalions with quality weapons is no longer in doubt. The decision has been made and the logistics are being sorted out,” Ghalyun said. If the opposition launches a credible offensive against the regime, a diplomatic solution may follow, he added. “A new phase is starting in which (opposition) forces will be qualified to stage quality operations against the regime, so as to force it to negotiate about handing over power, something that it currently refuses to do,” Ghalyun remarked. The Americans have made it clear that they do not intend to stage a military strike against the regime. So for now they are offering to arm the “moderate” resistance in cooperation with Western and Arab friends. The recent sacking of FSA Chief of Staff General Salim Idris is just the first step in a restructuring and rearming of this fighting force in order to allow “the moderates” to challenge the regime, without being upstaged by hard-line Islamists who have been making inroads in the northern part of the country. US National Security advisor Susan Rice said that her country is committed to resolving the Syrian crisis without military intervention on its part. The US, she pointed out, has no intention of sending any troops to Syria. The White House spokesman, meanwhile, said that President Obama is not considering a military strike, but is looking into “options” that suit America's national security concerns. European sources, however, say that American, European and Arab officials are coordinating an effort to arm and train selected brigades of the opposition. Their action is in response to the rising prospect of the Syrian war spilling outside Syria's borders, with jihadists using the country as a launching pad. On the ground, there is yet no sign of the rebels in south Syria receiving high-performance weapons, or of the “thousands” of fighters some reports said the Americans were busy training for months. The disheartening truth is that the regime used these reports to justify its brutal shelling of various towns and cities in south Syria, where 250 were killed within the span of one week. The modern shoulder-held rocket launchers that are supposed to keep the regime's forces at bay, and that many hope will turn the course of the war, have apparently not materialised so far. The regime may have been chastised by foreign diplomats and threatened by Syria's powerful friends, but when it comes to armament and logistics, the one who is receiving those is President Bashar Al-Assad, whose Iranian friends are firmly standing by his side. Russia is helping Al-Assad, Hizbullah is offering battle-hardened troops to keep him in power, Iraqi Shias are volunteering to fight on his side — all of which is quite reassuring for the man who keeps telling Westerners that he is about to give them chemical weapons to destroy, but is only making token deliveries of these weapons, a tactic that has worked in his favour so far. Hadi Al-Bahra, chief opposition negotiator, admits that diplomacy is not making much headway for now. Speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly, Al-Bahra said: “There is no doubt that the regime is exhausted. This is why he is relying on the help of factional militia from neighbouring countries, using them to stage a proxy war against his own people. But he is not going to win this war, because our revolution is at essence a popular, not a military one.” NCSROF spokesman Louay Safi doesn't see a reason to pursue negotiations for the time being. He said that the third round of the Geneva II talks might not be held if the situation remains unchanged. Speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly, Safi said: “The regime is only responding to the language of force and the credible threats to use it. Our strategy is to confront the regime and isolate it politically and militarily.” Giving weapons to Al-Assad's opponents is easier said than done, as events of the past two years have shown. The US is worried that the weapons it sends into the country may fall into the wrong hands, thus increasing an already substantial jihadist threat in the region. The imposition of no-fly zones also poses certain problems, as it may raise the possibility of deeper involvement by Western powers in the conflict, a prospect that is not appealing to America and the West for the moment. Waging a battle at the regime's stronghold in Damascus is also on the cards, but aside from the human cost of such a move, the logistics involved may take months to arrange. Under the current circumstances, there is no possibility of quick action to break the diplomatic impasse in Syria. As negotiators turn away from the table and field commanders contemplate options of confrontation, the regime is busy consolidating its power, and some would say preparing for an eventual partitioning of the country, with an Alawite enclave envisioned for coastal areas. In his opening speech at Geneva II, NCSROF Chief Ahmed Jarba said that, “time for the Syrians is blood.” At present, more time — and blood — is certain to be wasted.
