Is US power waning? It has become an article of faith among some commentators that US influence is waning worldwide, and that the rise of rival powers, such as China and Russia, is eating into America's traditional spheres of influence. The argument is based on the events of the past 10 years, which show that the Americans are less capable of acting unilaterally than they thought, and that their objectives seem to run into hurdles in various venues of conflict. Some say that the growing power of Brazil, Russia, India and China, or the BRICS group, heralds the end of US global hegemony that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union. It is only a matter of time, some say, as the world becomes multipolar, in which America is just another major power, not the supreme power of world affairs it had been in recent years. But is it true that American influence is waning? American officials are the first to admit that US global power depends on the consent and approval of other countries in the world. In a recent tour of Asia, President Barack Obama visited four countries: China, Japan, the Philippines and South Korea. With the exception of China, the Americans keep military presence in all of these countries, a vestige of their World War II victory. Washington is planning to keep nearly two-thirds of its fleet in the Pacific Ocean and Southeast Asia, all pieces of chess in America's global chess game, and a message to China that it is not a military equal as yet. The Americans also have Russia in their sights, continuing to placate while chipping away at its sphere of influence, as is clear in the cases of Syria and the Ukraine. During the Cold War, Washington and Moscow were engaged in global rivalry, but at an arm's length, fighting by proxy, through client states and in distant lands. This tradition may have continued to some extent today, but if anything it is the Americans not the Russians who are gaining ground. American influence, through NATO, has expanded in East Europe, depriving Moscow of many of its traditional allies. With the Ukraine in turmoil, the Russians seem poised to lose at least part of this country to pro-US groups. The same thing happened in Georgia, and is happening in Syria. The Americans may not be getting the same undivided support and ultimate power in their global endeavours, but for all the mishaps of their foreign policy, they are winning. Russia is losing in the Ukrainian crisis, even if it ends up controlling Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine. If a civil war erupts in that country, the fallout will be more damaging to Moscow than it is to Washington. A few weeks ago, a journalist asked President Obama if Iran was winning in Syria. Obama told him that Syria was all pro-Iranian before the civil war started; now the Iranians are facing a war of attrition in this country. This is how American officials see the world today. The global conflicts in which the Americans are taking part, directly or through the intercession of others, may not be turning out in Washington's favour. But they are taking a heavy toll on America's conventional adversaries. Take Syria, for example. This was a country that was fully allied with Russia. Now, in any future settlement, pro-US groups are likely to have a share in power. Washington may not gain the same influence that the Russians once have, but it will have improved its position on the global chessboard. In other parts of the world, America is not doing too poorly. NATO now dominates not only West Europe, but East Europe as well. Iran wants a deal with Washington, India wants to stay on its good side, and so do African countries. Washington may not be having its way in the unconditional manner it had dreamt of at the turn of the century, but its power is far from waning. This is not to say that America hasn't been wrong footed in various parts of the world, Afghanistan and Iraq included, and recently Egypt. The Americans are not invincible, nor are their policies immune to being challenged and frustrated. But they are persistent, pragmatic and on the whole winning more ground than they are being given credit for. The global influence that the Republicans tried to achieve through brute force is still America's objective, but the Democrats are trying to attain it through soft power. In short, it is too early to write the Americans off, although never too late to influence them and even confront them if necessary.
