Few would dispute that the forthcoming municipal elections that have begun to rivet public attention in Turkey will mark a turning point in Anatolian political life. Many believe that these elections, scheduled for 30 March, will mark the threshold to a new and brighter era. Their hopes have been encouraged by the developments that began with the Gezi Park demonstrations last June and that continue to play out in many forms, conveying the widespread opposition to the continued hegemony of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK). The AK has been fighting tooth-and-nail to stay in power, and it has been using every means at its disposal to do so, including electoral bribing. According to Yurt, for example, a widely read Turkish daily, residents of the Fatih district of Istanbul, seat of the former Ottoman caliphate, have reported that the incumbent municipal chief Kadir Topbaş, the AK candidate, has been facing stiff competition from his rival from the Republican People's Party (CHP), Mustafa Sarigül. In order to improve his chances of winning, Topbaş's campaign staff are apparently prepared to pay YTL500 (over US$200) per vote. As background music to the feverish campaign season there is the steady stream of leaked telephone conversations relating to the corruption scandal that broke on 17 December. Among the latest is a conversation between Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayip Erdogan and the minister of justice in which Erdogan instructs the latter to “take care” of a lawsuit that is currently being heard in the courts. Lawmakers have condemned this as flagrant executive meddling in the judiciary and a grave breach of the rule of law. In the recording, Erdogan can allegedly be heard dictating the penalty that should be handed down to his adversary who is being tried. Leaked recordings such as this have been hitting the Internet and sending shockwaves through Turkish public opinion, and they have been placing strain on Erdogan. In ten days' time he and his Party will be undergoing the harshest test they have had to face since they came to power 11 years ago. Only a year ago, Erdogan boasted that his Party would never win less than 60 per cent of the votes in any election. Today, the AK has pinned its hopes on coming away from the polls with 40 per cent. If it reaches this target, the country's leading media, which Erdogan has long since tamed into submission, will portray this as an epic victory. As the countdown to the polls ticks away, former military chief of staff Mehmet Ilker Başbug has recently been released after 26 months in prison pending renewed investigations into his involvement in the conspiracies against the AK government known as the Ergenekon and Sledgehammer cases. Başbug, along with other defendants in these cases, had been sentenced to life imprisonment. It has been suggested that the military chief's release at this time is not exactly a coincidence. It may ease the misgivings of supporters of Turkey's military establishment, driven to humiliation by the many years of the Ergenekon and Sledgehammer investigations, and thus improve the prospects of AK candidates whose popularity ratings have been plunging in the opinion polls conducted in the run-up to the 30 March elections. But the release of Başbug, together with some other former military top brass and civilians who had been found guilty in these cases, has not sat well in some quarters of the ruling circles. Şamil Tayyar, AK deputy for Gaziantep, lashed out against the release ruling, for example, accusing AK leaders of “bowing to blackmail” and threatening to resign. In Gazientep there is reportedly considerable support for Muhammed Fethullah Gülen, the Islamist pundit whom Erdogan holds responsible for triggering the graft probes that have implicated top AK officials as well as close associates and family members of the prime minister. Although the presidential elections, scheduled for 10 August, is still several months away, the contest has already begun to add to the political turbulence. There have been intimations that the recently released Başbug may himself stand in the elections with the backing of secularist-oriented parties and political forces opposed to the ruling AK and conservative Islamist forces. Commentators in the Turkish dailies have written that they will support Başbug if he decides to run for president, and the country's two main opposition parties, the CHP and the National Movement Party (MHP), have made it clear that they will stand behind one of the strongest defenders of the principles of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder of modern Turkey. Should Başbug decide to stand for the presidency, he might not pose formidable competition to Erdogan, but he would certainly complicate the latter's presidential bid as Erdogan has his sights set on the presidential palace and the highest office in the land. Yet, Erdogan's toughest obstacle may come from closer quarters. The current incumbent, Abdullah Gül, has said that he is keeping all his options open, and Erdogan's lifelong companion on the political road, in the past ready to sacrifice himself and take a back seat to the party leader, may no longer be as compliant as he used to be. Since 2007, Gül and Erdogan have gradually begun to part ways, and the AK's current political crises have broadened the gap between them. When Erdogan was raving against the Gezi Park protesters as hooligans and thieves, Gül opted for more rational and conciliatory terms, cautioning against “behaviour that harms the rule of law and democracy” and appealing to all concerned “to try harder to listen to other points of view and allay the fears of the people,” for example. Another factor that is likely to be souring relations between the president and the prime minister is the fact that Gül is known to be close to Gülen, now in voluntary exile in Pennsylvania, who is seen by the prime minister as a sworn enemy. Observers believe that given the current political climate and the distance he has been creating between himself and Erdogan, Gül would stand a good chance of winning a second term as president. With all the political setbacks, lurking suspicions and anger surrounding his rule, the question is whether Erdogan will have the guts to run for president. His Party still rates highly in the opinion polls, but respondents have been increasingly accusing him of dictatorial tendencies. Abroad, Erdogan's Turkey has lapsed from the image of “moderate Islam” or “democratic Islamism” that was once lauded by politicians in the US and Europe. In the Middle East, Turkey has lost its stature as the place to turn to for resolutions on the region's problems, with Ankara's failed strategy on Syria being a salient lesson. Domestically, the CHP leader Kemal Kiliçdaroglu best summed up the growing mood among the Turkish public when he asked how Erdogan, after the exposure of the biggest corruption scandal in the history of the Turkish Republic, could remain in office with “his hands tainted by the state's and the people's money.” The facts on the ground not only indicate that Erdogan will not now become president. They also suggest that he is unlikely to remain the head of the AK, which also appears to be poised to become the former ruling party.
