Six years ago, in the summer of 2007, hundreds of thousands of Turks rallied in Tandogan Square in the heart of Ankara to protest against Recep Tayyip Erdogan's candidacy for the presidency and reaffirm the secularist identity of the Turkish state. The rally was the first in a series of Republic Demonstrations during which protesters stood for hours around the Anytkabir, the mausoleum of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the father of modern Turkey who laid the foundations of the contemporary Turkish state on the ruins of the former Ottoman Empire. One could not help but be reminded of that peaceful uprising watching the demonstrations that have unfolded in Turkey over the past week. One also could not help but be struck by the fact that the spark that triggered these events on Friday occurred in Gezi Park in the heart of Istanbul, Erdogan's native city and the seat of the erstwhile Ottoman caliphate that, according to some of his opponents, Erdogan is seeking to resurrect with himself as padishah. But the question remains of what exactly is now happening in Turkey and why. Is this the Turkish spring and the prelude to an uprising that will overthrow the current regime and usher in its antithesis? Or is it merely an outburst of popular anger that will subside once the government offers concessions? Erdogan could claim, rightfully, that his government has not only preserved green urban spaces but has also expanded public parks and gardens throughout the country. However, the threatened trees in Gezi Park are only one aspect of a multifaceted phenomenon that could spiral out of control if it is not properly addressed. Unfortunately, the prime minister has ignored many crucial factors. In an address to an economic gathering in Istanbul, broadcast live on most Turkish TV networks, he appeared indifferent to the cries of the demonstrators, instead speaking at length about his economic achievements and how his government had more than quadrupled the country's export trade from $36 billion to $156 billion in a single decade. Just before this broadcast, Turkish national television had set the stage for this boasting with a report that the country's exports for the month of May had totalled $13 billion. However, the Turks are familiar with such figures, virtually knowing them by heart so frequently are the numbers recited in the media. The repetition of these figures now is undoubtedly deliberate, and it is intended to trivialise the protest rallies and flaunt the government's self-confidence. Yet, a display of self-confidence is one thing and overweening arrogance is quite another. The demonstrators' defence of the trees in Gezi Park in Istanbul's Taksim Square have only been the latest symptom in what has been a mounting syndrome. The question of the identity of the Square was a subject of contention long before the Erdogan government announced its plan to eliminate the Park in order to make way for the construction of a replica of a 19th-century Ottoman barracks that would serve as a shopping mall. Late last year, Istanbul residents, joined by prominent Turkish writers and intellectuals, began to voice their vehement objections to the plan. The fact that the Erdogan government blithely dismissed their objections and gave the go-ahead to the bulldozers is telling. Not even the prime minister's staunchest opponents can deny his government's success in boosting Turkey's export trade. But at least for the sake of completeness and transparency he should also have discussed the other half of the accounts, namely imports. Erdogan likes to impress his audiences with what he regards as the country's export revolution, credit for which he claims is due to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK) that he heads. However, he does not like to bore his audiences with the figures on the country's imports. These have also experienced impressive leaps and bounds, as was the case under previous governments, with the result that the country's trade deficit is still as high as it was in 2002 and higher than it was under the previous coalition government led by Mustafa Bülent Ecevit, who hailed from the political left and served four terms as prime minister, the last being from 1999 to 2002. In response to the protests stirred up on Friday when the police moved into Gezi Park to clear a peaceful sit-in that had been in progress for days, Erdogan finally admitted that the police may have used excessive force, as opposed to “brutal force”, which was how columnist Sibyl Ozgentürk described it in the Turkish newspaper Cumhuriyet. Yet, he was also adamant about pressing ahead with the project because, he said, he had pledged to do what no other government before his had been able to do, which was to turn the famous Taksim Square into a Turkish version of the Parisian Place de l'Etoile. It appears that nothing will now divert him from this resolve, and in what some observers have described as an imperious manner Erdogan ordered the protesters to call a halt to their protests. Some have said that the wave of protests that has swept the country in response to Friday's clampdown has also heightened Erdogan's determination. If this is the case, then it indicates that the price of his government's success is hubris. It is now widely believed that Erdogan has no intention of giving up his broad powers and, indeed, that he plans to run for the presidency next year. But in the opinion of some commentators, if the anger against him continues to snowball his chances in those elections will be slim. And the anger does indeed appear to be snowballing. At the beginning of the weekend, only a few other cities had seen demonstrations in solidarity with the Gezi Park protesters. But by the end of the weekend, the protests had spread to towns and cities in 25 provinces. Not only is the impetus now growing, but the mostly youthful protesters have notched up the tone of their slogans, while members of the country's normally “silent majority” have been leaning out of their windows clapping, chanting and banging pots in support. If the demonstrators, most of whom are high school and university students and unemployed young people, have their way, these supporters will eventually leave off banging pots and join them in the streets. The political adversaries of the government may be pinning their expectations on other hopes. One scenario envisions a rift between Erdogan and his long-term friend, Turkish President Abdullah Gül, that would send a fissure through the ruling party. Might Gül find this opportunity to override the bonds of friendship and declare his intention to run for a second term in office too good to miss? Certainly his reaction to the demonstrations thus far, which has been to describe them as disturbing, lacks the tone of unequivocal support that Erdogan might have been looking for. For his part, Erdogan seems to be carrying on regardless, prompting questions as to whether this may be a case of the pride that comes before a fall.
