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Flu scares
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 12 - 02 - 2014

Four more people in Al-Menoufiya governorate died of swine flu — this, in addition to an extra 44 suspected cases — raising the number of deaths to 36 and infections to 342. Schools and universities were closed for an extra several weeks as anxiety spread among parents in the densely populated country.
Meanwhile, the Health Ministry is considering postponing the school term once again if the virus continues to spread. The ministry issued a statement warning that pregnant women, citizens over the age of 65, children under two and people with respiratory or circulatory problems are particularly at risk.
The ministry spokesman Ahmed Kamel pointed out that the ministry will coordinate with Education Ministry for the students' safety. “If the death toll continues to rise, the ministry will delay the start of the school year,” he said.
Kamel said the virus did not undergo any mutation since it last struck. “The virus's genetic mark is the same. There is no mutation and the response to Tamiflu is the same,” he said. Samples have been taken from suspected cases and sent to ministry laboratories, the World Health Organisation (WHO), and the Naval Medical Research Unit (NAMRU), a biomedical research laboratory of the US Navy conducting infectious disease research in North Africa and the Middle East.
According to the report issued by WHO about the virus in 72 countries, nearly 24,500 cases were positive for influenza viruses, of which nearly 25 per cent were influenza H1N1 cases. The report also said that Egypt was one of the countries experiencing an increase in influenza viral activity.
“The rate of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza was above the epidemic threshold, and 10 pediatric deaths were attributed to influenza,” the WHO report stated. The report added that intensive care unit admissions for influenza increased to 19.4 per cent, with a three-percent increase compared to previous seasons. Worldwide, annual influenza epidemics result in about three to five million cases of severe illness, and 250,000-500,000 deaths.
The report stated that in Egypt, there have been 339,483 influenza cases since December; only 318 of them were diagnosed as H1N1. Another 1,376 cases of respiratory diseases also occurred. “The numbers this time are still within the normal range. We don't want people to panic,” said Kamel. But at the same time ministry officials are eager not to underestimate the risk. With no clustering, Kamel explained, the infection cannot be considered epidemiological.
Last week WHO denied rumours that some doctors in Egypt died as a result of the virus. The report also stated that WHO officials are monitoring the situation with all the relevant authorities.
Meanwhile, Kamel announced at a press conference conducted few days ago at the ministry headquarters that 80 percent of those who died were suffering from one or more pre-existing risk factors. “Most of the deaths have occurred in vulnerable groups: the elderly, pregnant women, or those with pre-existing immune or respiratory diseases,” he said.
At the same time, Amr Qandil, the head of Health Ministry's preventive medicine department, stated that the ministry has already imported an additional 20,000 doses of H1N1, bringing the whole amount to 100,000, to vaccinate doctors against the virus. “All doctors and nurses working at the ministry's hospitals will be vaccinated against the virus in order to protect them from contracting it while dealing with patients,” Qandil said.
Qandil denied rumours that the ministry's stock of vaccines has expired. “We don't manufacture the vaccine here in Egypt, we import it. The ministry has set a protocol to provide treatment and medical instructions for the disease at hospitals in remote areas. We are providing the requirements for infection control, disinfectants, detergents, pharmaceuticals and coordination between hospitals to transport patients to central hospitals in case of need for intensive care,” he said. The country's 55 hospitals and health centres capable of dealing with H1N1 cases and are ready to receive any new patients and will soon have large stocks of vaccines, he added.
All relevant officials at the Health Ministry reiterated that H1N1 is a seasonal flu, expected to spread throughout winter. Whereas members of the Doctors' Syndicate believe that the Health Ministry is not taking serious enough measures to prevent and treat the spread of the virus. According to Khaled Samir, a member of Doctors' Syndicate board of directors, the ministry needs to take prevention measures to a higher level to protect the public. “The most important thing is that small and simple precautions should be taken, 99 per cent of all infections can be easily avoided by wearing medical masks and vigilant hand-washing,” Samir said.
In 2009, the global swine flu pandemic prompted authorities to cull more than 300,000 pigs previously used to dispose of the city's organic garbage. However, Jason McDonald, spokesman for the Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said that the virus is now most often transmitted from human to human, and not through contact with pigs.


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