The Middle East witnessed a near-earthquake Saturday, 23 November 2013. In the morning, Egypt announced that it decided to declare the Turkish ambassador to Cairo persona non grata and to downgrade its diplomatic relations with Turkey to the chargé d'affaires level. The Egyptian ambassador to Ankara had been recalled for consultations 15 August. He never went back to his post and Egypt decided to transfer him definitively last Saturday. These measures were taken in response to the meddling of the Turkish government in the internal affairs of Egypt and its indirect role in inciting violence in the country. Less than 24 hours after the Cairo announcement, the P5+1 group (the United States, United Kingdom, Russia, China and France, with Germany) and Iran reached an interim agreement concerning the Iranian nuclear programme. By all measures, this accord is a breakthrough, not only in the context of the Iranian nuclear question, but also in a wider regional context. The extent this agreement will impact on the Middle East and the Arab Gulf region depends, of course, on the ability of the parties concerned to seal a definitive agreement on the same issue. If they do, this will change the regional dynamics that have shaped the two strategic regions in the last 35 years in the wake of the Iranian Revolution of 1979. One thing is certain, though. Relations between the United States and Iran are expected to improve in the next few months after the signing of an executive order by President Barack Obama to ease sanctions on Iran by releasing up to $7 billion, according to the Geneva accord. Restoration of full diplomatic relations between the two countries should not be expected in the foreseeable future, but we should not discard the establishment of an Interests Section. The former will depend on reaching a final agreement on the Iranian nuclear programme. But one thing is certain. The two countries are not on a collision course for the time being. The Geneva accord should be considered a diplomatic achievement for the Obama administration. The Geneva accord, by bringing the United States and world powers closer to Tehran, will change the dominant regional politics of the last three decades, especially in American relations with its regional allies such as Israel, Turkey and Saudi Arabia — three countries who had been watching progress in negotiations with Iran on its nuclear programme with muted alarm and public misgivings about the true Iranian intentions in these negotiations. The three regional powers, who by definition are regional rivals to Iran, have framed and conducted their regional alliances and their relations with outside powers in the context of the American-Iranian confrontation that ensued after the seizure of the American Embassy in Tehran on 4 November 1979 and the developments of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with all its ramifications regionally and in the context of bilateral relations among the concerned parties. The two developments — the growing estrangement between Cairo and Ankara on the one hand, and the Geneva interim accord on the other — could herald a new alignment of forces in the Middle East. One possibility is Turkey and Israel moving closer together in spite of the record of the Turkish government on the Palestinian issue. A second possibility is Egypt and Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries cementing further their already strong relations. A third possibility is for Iran to provide further assistance and aid to Syria. In the case that the Geneva II conference on the Syrian crisis takes place soon (the UN announced 25 November that the conference will be convened 22 January 2014), Iranian participation should not be in doubt after the agreement signed in Geneva between the P5+1 and Iran. This participation will give the Syrian government valuable support during the talks, probably to the advantage of Damascus. In the next few months, we could witness three alliances emerging in the Middle East and the Gulf region. The first will be the consolidation of the already existing alliance between Iran and Syria. The second will be between Ankara and Tel Aviv. The third will strengthen ties and security relations between Egypt and the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Furthermore, security relations between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan will get closer. On the other hand, a new player will have a greater say in the Middle East, and that is Russia, that has returned with full force to the Middle East and I believe will weigh considerably on regional politics in the years to come. A closer relationship between Russia and Saudi Arabia should not be discounted. The net losers in the Middle East today are Israel and Turkey, who for different reasons were comfortable with the confrontation between the United States and Iran with its result of checking Iranian power and influence in the Middle East. Israeli reactions give an idea of how alarming Israel views the accord signed in Geneva. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu described the accord 24 November as a “historic mistake” and added that, “The world has become a much more dangerous place because the most dangerous regime in the world has taken a significant step towards attaining the most dangerous weapon in the world.” Netanyahu went on to say that his country is not “bound” by this agreement, referring to the Geneva accord. More ominous was the declaration by Avigdor Lieberman, Israel's foreign minister, as quoted in The New York Times. He said: “Israel will have to make a reassessment,” and that “all options” are “on the table”. Such Israeli reactions reveal the depth of Israeli apprehensions, not out of fear that it would be attacked by Iran any time soon, or even in the future, but rather fears that Israeli hegemony is in question today. The last three decades, which began with the signing of the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty, have seen the rise of Israeli power within the context of a growing alliance with the United States. With the return of Russia to the Middle Eastern scene and the United States and Iran about to begin a normalisation process in their relations, Israel stands to lose its unchecked dominance in the Middle East. Turkey, for its part, and after its failure in both Egypt and Syria, will have to reassess its regional position. The only capital that it can look to, perhaps against its better judgement, is Tel Aviv. For the last three years, Turkish foreign policy has played a dangerous game of meddling in the domestic affairs of major Arab powers, namely Egypt, Syria and Iraq with a grandiose plan to lead a Sunni front against Iran and Shiism. Amid the upheaval in Syria and the opening of Turkish borders to terrorist elements to enter Syria to help in the overthrow of the Syrian government, Turkish short-sighted calculations were that the downfall of President Bashar Al-Assad would pave the way for the Muslim Brothers of Syria to rule in Damascus, thus chasing Iran out of the Middle East and leaving Turkey holding the keys to Sunni forces in the region. It has been a very dangerous game and has led to a region-wide destabilisation that should be redressed for the security and territorial integrity of Middle Eastern countries. Egypt has a chance to play a leading role in such a stabilisation process in the Middle East. From an Egyptian perspective, the Geneva accord should be welcomed. It has opened the door for international diplomacy to settle the Iranian nuclear question away from Israel warmongering that threatened to drag the Middle East and the United States into a military confrontation with Iran, the consequences of which no regional or international power could foresee. The Geneva accord could also facilitate a diplomatic solution to the Syrian crisis, thus neutralising Turkey's destabilising role in the Middle East. Moreover, the chances of working out a final peace deal between the Israelis and the Palestinians look greater today than one week earlier. The Middle East stands at a crossroad today. Let us hope that Egypt will seize the opportunity and provide vision and leadership to put the region on the road to progress and prosperity.
The writer is former assistant to the foreign minister.
