Are the contradicting signs of the diplomatically troubled relations a reflection of a strategic change? Could Israel or Turkey afford severing their ties? Could the Turkish government go to the end of the road against the will of military institution? Does Turkish government follow the rule of the region, which is talk about Palestine to win hearts then do anything? To address these questions, one should return to the basis that made these two countries allies. Turkey is a NATO member and it hosts the biggest US air force base Ingrlik in the region. The Americans store arms in Israel. Both Israel and Turkey, which are obliged to cooperate with each other to some extent, have problems with a common neighbour Syria. Until now, Israel occupies Golan Heights and Syria did not recognise Iskandrona region a Turkish territory. Syria complains that Turkish projects decreased its quota of rivers' water that came from Turkey. It is expected that water will be a major security subject that may lead to wars. Yet, the geopolitical facts add to controversy. Turkey is surrounded by two historical enemies, Russia and Iran. Before the Islamic Revolution in Iran both Ankara and Tehran were in the Western bloc, but after the revolution the Turkish-Iranian relation witnessed disturbances. Regarding the Russian factor Turkey needs a southern ally to form a depth. Egypt served this role during the Ottoman Empire and the Egyptian army saved Turkey during Mohamed Ali era. The improved relations with Russia and Iran are a compromise and accommodation to decrease the risk. However, until there is a real alliance between Russia and the West and there is a satisfactory end for the Iranian nuclear file, Turkey cannot change its strategic alliances in the region from the geopolitical point of view. Israel needs Turkey now as well. Russia sees the Israeli nuclear arms a direct threat. Israel serves the Western and US strategy in the region and it was one of the main arms suppliers to Georgia. However, both Russia and Israel have common strategic interests to separate Turkey from its normal geopolitical context. This explains the progress of the Russian-Israeli relations after the US reached the point of reconciliation with the Islamic world. And this explains also the increasing tension of the Turkish-Israeli relation. In other dimension, the row between Turkey and Israel may reflect change of alliances if the peace process succeeded. Failure of peace process makes Turkey a vital ally because Russia will not sever its relations with Syria to have influence in the Eastern Mediterranean. Some analysts talked about the internal political situation in Turkey and the desire of the Turkish government to change internal balance to downsize the influence of army generals by decreasing the external risk with neighbours. In this case, the government may let relations with Israel deteriorate as it does not pose a direct risk for the Turkish homeland even the Zionist project does not affect the Turkish territories. Another dimension is the Turkish will to exert its regional role through playing the role of a political mediator whether in the Syrian track or in the Iranian nuclear file. This dimension put a ceiling for any Turkish-Israeli conflict. There is a direct Iranian desire to let Turkey play this role not give all files of the peace process to Egypt and Saudi Arabia so that it could use the Palestinian cause to serve its nuclear file. Syria, the Iranian ally, did not ask Egypt or Jordan to mediate between it and Israel despite being common members in the Arab League and having relations with Israel. This explains the improved Iranian-Turkish relations lately. And this explains why the Turkish government took stiff reaction to Gaza war and it did not take similar steps during the previous years of conservative Islamic party rule in Turkey. Some analysts talked about US-Israeli-Turkish plan to improve the Turkish face so that Turkey can play a role in the American new Middle East plans. The supporters of this view told about the military cooperation between Turkey and Israel that has never stopped. Turkey bought unmanned military warplanes at US$180 million hundred and eighty million from Israel. The strategic agreement between the two countries gives Turkey accessibility to the advanced Israeli military technology. After the diplomatic row and before the visit of Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak to Ankara, a high-profile Turkish military delegate visited Tel Aviv. There are four air force exercises between the two countries yearly. The security cooperation between the two countries never stopped. Israel has relations with the Iraqi Kurds and stirring troubles through them annoys Turkey. The conclusion is both the Turkish military institutions and the government adjust the tempo of the Turkish-Israeli relations according to serve the Turkish strategy and its foreign policy. In Israel this tempo is also adjusted by the army mainly. The Turkish government applies the regional rule of talking about Palestine to advance its foreign policy and letting the army to do the real job strategically. [email protected]
