The logic of Syrian realpolitik now seems to be paying off, writes Emad Fawzi El-Shueibi* The Syrians have been caught in the worst tempest in their modern history. Instead of being a major player in a regional conflict, they found themselves in the eye of the storm. This was Damascus's worst nightmare, to become a mere bone of contention, a feather in mighty international winds. Conventional wisdom has it that whoever controls Syria decides the course of events in the Middle East. And the Syrians don't wish to be controlled by anyone. Unfortunately, the Syrians have a few cards to play, aside from their geo-strategic position, which is a mixed blessing. With their army under-equipped and their economy underperforming, the Syrians cannot afford to raise the ante. So what are they doing exactly? Here are a few examples of how the Syrians manage their foreign policy. First, "bend with the wind". The Syrians are willing to accommodate others, but only to a certain degree. Interestingly enough, Damascus has ruled out all concessions. The reason is that once the concessions start, things may get out of hand. So Damascus prefers to reject demands, rather than offer the minimum of concessions that others may have opted for. Second, "play for time". Instead of going for drastic action and dramatic manoeuvres, the Syrians are waiting until others make mistakes, seeking then aiming to capitalise on them. The Syrians are waiting for the right balance of power to develop, and they recognise the fact that they have been unable to engage in serious military spending for over 25 years. Syria is also at an economic disadvantage, due to the numerous conflicts it has been drawn into. Third, "engage in the issues of the region". The Syrians are aware that their country is at the crossroads of Asia, Europe and Africa. Due to its geo-strategic position, Damascus has to be proactive. The Syrians engage others in dialogue, but they do not seek war or confrontation. Still, they cannot forego their strategic concerns. The Syrians engage international parties in dialogue, but don't let anyone tell them what to do. Meanwhile, they are not interested in escalating conflicts, and they try to calm things down as much as possible. Fourth, "defend sovereignty". Damascus is not interested in playing second fiddle. It is willing to exchange opinions and meet others halfway, but is averse to major powers telling it what to do. So the Syrians are walking a thin line between their desires and their capabilities. They weigh their words with care and, when diplomacy fails, they prefer to say nothing at all. Fifth, "keep the rhetoric down". Most Syrian diplomacy is conducted away from the media, for Damascus is not prone to bombastic rhetoric. The Syrians prefer to retain their cards close to their chest. Sixth, "wait for the right moment". Because of their tendency for secrecy, the Syrians are often misunderstood and criticised. But they are persistent and patient, and convinced that their policy will eventually pay off. The neo-con rhetoric coming from the US has not unsettled the Syrians, for they know that even a superpower has to stick to the rules. Damascus has weathered the storm that assailed it with the fall of Baghdad. It remained adamant that it must have a say in the future of the region. And now others are listening. * The writer is a professor of political science at Damascus University and director of the Centre for Strategic Data and Studies.
