The humanitarian situation in Darfur remains dire as the crisis continues to evade resolution, writes Mohammad Abul Fadl* Darfur has been the subject of high-level diplomatic initiatives for sometime now, but the future of the war-torn region remains as uncertain as ever. Stage Two of the UN peace-keeping plan is underway, but to move from there to Stage Three, over 20,000 international troops will have to be deployed in that locale. And unless fighting between pro-government forces, including the much-feared Janjaweed, and local factions ends, the international community may impose sanctions on the Sudanese government. Several countries have been advocating diplomacy. Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Chad, Eritria and China have all come up with diplomatic initiatives aimed to defuse the situation. Their efforts have so far been met with partial success. A few days ago, the government of South Sudan called on the signatories of the Abuja Agreement to meet once again. Mohamed Othman Al-Mirghani, leader of the opposition Sudanese Democratic Alliance, said arrangements were underway for a meeting in Cairo among the Abuja signatories. Two international emissaries have been coming up with fresh ideas. African Union (AU) envoy to Darfur Salem Ahmed Salem and UN and EU special envoy to Darfur Jan Eliasson have drawn up a roadmap for peace and passed it on to their superiors. This shows the level of concern the international community feels about the crisis. And yet Darfur proved to be a harder nut to crack than negotiators had expected. Over the past few months, various groups of negotiators have come up with divergent ideas. No unified agenda for a solution has emerged, and yet finding such a framework seems the only way out of the crisis. The Sudanese don't seem to be able to get their act together. And powerful countries, human rights groups, humanitarian organisations and pressure groups have come up with oft- irreconcilable ideas. Some negotiators focus on the humanitarian aspect, others on diplomatic efforts, and others still on military means. Sudan's neighbours don't want to see Sudan divided or descending into chaos. They have been pressing the Sudanese government to reach a deal with local groups on the sharing of power and wealth. And they are still trying to get the Abuja agreement implemented. Egypt and Libya have been talking to opposition groups in Darfur in the hope of getting them to accept the Abuja Agreement. Some international parties, however, prefer a military approach. They argue that the Sudanese government has been dragging its feet in talks with the opposition. And they point out that time is at a premium due to the humanitarian catastrophe in the region. But there is a reason why diplomacy is slow in Darfur. In south Sudan, diplomacy took a long time, although we had only two sides on the table. In Darfur, there are five major movements and dozens of smaller factions, so things take time to happen. This is exactly what kept the Abuja Agreement from being implemented. Major international powers seem to prefer a military solution to Darfur. Despite its tribulations in Iraq, the US still believes that, with a little help from countries in the region, the Darfur crisis could be resolved through military means. But there are several problems here. One is that international powers disagree over the specifics of military action. Another is that peace-keeping operations are proving too hard for the AU. And although several African and Muslim countries have promised troops, the picture remains generally vague. As diplomats continue to debate the situation, humanitarian conditions remain dismal in Darfur. Relief shipments are hard to get in to the region due to militia activities, tribal infighting, and Sudanese- Chadian tensions. And there is not much the refugees of Darfur can look forward to. The international community has not yet figured out a way of bringing enough peace-keeping troops on the ground. And the Sudanese government is taking its time on diplomacy. Somehow, something will have to give soon. Either the international community will figure out a viable plan for military action, or enough diplomatic momentum will be created for a peaceful solution. * The writer is a researcher specialised in African and Sudanese affairs.
