Since the Riyadh Arab Summit revived the Beirut peace initiative, talks among Arabs, Israelis and Europeans on the Arab-Israeli conflict have shown that Israel isn't interested in a negotiated final settlement but merely in security measures that maintain the status quo. Still, it wishes to move ahead with normalisation. Israel believes that it can join Arab "moderates" in a confederation that would keep Iran and other members of the "axis of evil" at bay. Moderate Arabs should side with Israel against terror, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says. The Americans see things the same way. They want the Arabs to support them in Iraq, but to leave Palestine alone. In the recent conference in Sharm El-Sheikh, US officials talked about Iraq all the time, while avoiding other regional issues. Since the war on Lebanon in the summer of 2006, the Americans and Israelis have been seeking the political means to achieve the same objectives that Israel used to pursue through aggression. Through intensive lobbying at the UN Security Council, the US did all that it could to reward Israel for the war it lost in Lebanon. Slowly, Israel is coming to the realisation that military power has its limitations. One reason for this shift in thinking is that Arab resistance groups have given their adversaries hell in the battlefield, especially in Iraq. Israel knows that its land is no longer safe from the consequences of military hostilities, as its war on Lebanon demonstrated. It also knows that it failed to uproot Hizbullah; indeed, its war made the Lebanese resistance group stronger. This is why Israel is abandoning war for politics and is trying to secure the help of "moderate" Arabs in its new endeavours. Unfortunately, some Arab governments -- especially those unpopular at home -- need the support of the US to stay in power. Israel knows that and is playing on it. On the other hand, the shift in emphasis in Israeli strategy is not without historical context. Israel's founding fathers have disappeared from the scene and a new generation is coming to power, one that lacks the zeal and doctrinal obsessions of the old. This is why reservists demonstrated recently in front of Israel's Ministry of Defence, threatening to refuse to serve in any future war. During the war in Lebanon, an Israeli military spokeswoman blamed the outbreak of hostilities on "the corruption of power and the politicisation of the army". She added that the next phase would be all about "politics", where "there is room for decisions to be taken and influence to be had". If the Israelis are turning to politics, what kind of politics will it be? This is the question we have to answer. Unless the Arabs understand the nature of the shift of mood in Israel, the latter will win the peace just as in the past it won the wars. The humanitarian situation in Darfur remains dire as the crisis continues to evade resolution, writes Mohammad Abul Fadl
