In spite of an escalation of violence and a deteriorating humanitarian and security situation, peace in Darfur has the glimmerings of a second chance, writes Gamal Nkrumah Darfur has again fallen victim to the Machiavellian machinations of provincial politicians and tribal leaders and their petty rivalries. Seen from a global perspective, rather than a national Sudanese perspective, the humanitarian catastrophe in Darfur is untenable. The violence in the war-torn province must be brought to an end. However, there are important caveats to the current escalation of fighting in Darfur. For one, it remains unclear how determined Khartoum is to ending the fighting in Darfur. The political process in Sudan is highly uncertain. The government of national unity in Khartoum remains primus inter pares, first among equals, as far as the protagonists in the Darfur conflict are concerned. However, the Sudanese government itself has no clear Darfur policy, a reflection of deep ideological divisions within the government. The differences in opinion between the leaders of the country are confusing. Displays of outrage and humbug from the Sudanese President Omar Hassan Al-Beshir and his hangers-on are as vocal as ever. He is adamantly opposed to the deployment of foreign troops in Darfur. His First Vice-President Salva Kiir, however, is sympathetic to the idea. The contrast in their political stance over Darfur is stark. Kiir's visit to Washington last week only highlighted the glaring contrariety among Sudan's new ruling clique. Indeed, Kiir openly complained to his American hosts about the "painfully slow" process of transforming the country into a democratic, multi-party nation". On the face of it, Sudan has achieved peace between its northern and southern halves, but in reality the underlying tensions are tremendous. Southerners complain that even though they hold top ministerial posts in the federal government, they do not wield real power. The political changes, in other words, are tantamount to mere window dressing. Kiir received the red carpet treatment in Washington, a welcome that is reserved to visiting heads of state, and one that has long not been accorded to a visiting Sudanese official. In Washington, Kiir made it clear that the political inclusion of southerners was a vital necessity. His hosts listened attentively. The Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), which is headed by Kiir, now virtually runs southern Sudan. Kiir is, after all, officially the president of Southern Sudan under the federal system. The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed between the SPLM and the then Sudanese government led by the National Congress Party (NCP) of President Al-Beshir on 9 January 2005 stipulated the reform of the country's state security apparatus. The northern leadership has failed to abide by its commitments to reform the state security apparatus. This has not only poisoned the air between north and south, but lies at the heart of the Darfur crisis. All eyes are on the armed opposition groups and quasi-independent tribal militias, and on the precise nature of their relationship with the Sudanese government. Most of the current fighting is between rival armed opposition groups. But the main bone of contention is that the two factions that refused to sign the Abuja peace deal insist on reforming the Sudanese state security apparatus in order to guarantee a greater respect for human rights and instill security in Darfur. The leader of the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) Minni Arko Minnawi tentatively agreed to sign the Darfur peace agreement brokered by the African Union (AU) in the Nigerian capital Abuja on 15 May. The leader of a splinter SLA faction, Abdul- Wahed Mohamed Ahmed Al-Nour, refused to sign the peace deal. A third opposition group -- the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) -- also rejected the peace deal. Last month, in the Eritrean capital Asmara, the SLA Al-Nour faction, JEM and the Federal Alliance headed by Ahmed Ibrahim Dreig formed the National Salvation Front and vowed to continue with the struggle to rid Darfur of "oppressive government forces". They demanded that the government bows to their demands to change the terms of the Abuja peace accords. The government has so far refused to do so. So where will it end? "Under the Abuja agreement there is no specific timetable for the disarming and disbanding of the militias allied to the government," SLA leader Abdel-Wahed Mohamed Ahmed Al-Nour told Al-Ahram Weekly. "We are being reasonable, and not intransigent". Minnawi visited Washington and met with US President Bush who urged the Sudanese rebel leader to stop instigating violence and to form an alliance with the other two Darfur groups. Minnawi is poised to become senior assistant to Al-Beshir and head the so-called Darfur Authority. JEM and the SLA Al-Nour faction accuse the SLA Minnawi faction of escalating violence in Darfur. Not only is Minnawi accused of being a "sell-out and government stooge" but he is also reportedly working hand in glove with Musa Hilal, the Janjaweed leader and a member of the Arab Mahameed tribe. Musa Hilal is wanted at the International Criminal Court for committing crimes against humanity. The Janjaweed have resumed attacks on villagers in Darfur in tandem with the SLA Minnawi faction. The AU peacekeeping forces are unable to police the war-torn region. "The Janjaweed are still very much in the picture," Al-Nour added. The government's Popular Defence Forces, an Islamist militia under the Sudanese government jurisdiction, is also a force to be reckoned with. "How could we take the peace agreement seriously if there is no clear mechanism for disbanding the Janjaweed? The government funded and armed the Janjaweed and the Popular Defense Forces who were responsible for the worst atrocities in Darfur," Al-Nour explained. He said that his movement is fighting for a new Sudan -- one in which all the people of Sudan participate in the decision-making process. "Today Sudan faces disintegration because of the stranglehold of a small tribal clique over the political establishment," Al-Nour said. "We want to do away with the old Sudan." At the moment, the country is run by two northern Arab tribes -- the Jaileyin -- President Al-Beshir's tribe -- and the Shaiqiya. The Al-Shaiqiya tribe, perhaps the most politically influential in the Sudanese state today control the ministries of energy and national security. The powerful Second Vice President Ali Othman Mohamed Taha is a Shaiqiya and so is the Minister for Unitary Relations, and former state security chief, Nafie Ali Nafie. Awad Ahmed Al-Jaz, another Shaiqiya, is minister of the all-important Petroleum Ministry, a ministry that was supposed to be headed by a southern Sudanese under the terms of CPA. It was one of the many points that NCP of Al-Beshir reneged on. Sudan is well positioned to become a major African oil exporter. Yet, there has been no proper demarcation of the North-South border as stipulated under the CPA in order to determine the division of the oil fields. The southerners believe that the North "reneged in meeting its obligations" as Kiir put it to his hosts in Washington. Be that as it may, Kiir will no doubt regard his Washington visit as something of a success. Kiir's Washington visit also provided an opportunity for clarifying the US policy on Darfur. "The UN should be invited in," US President George W Bush told Kiir. "Our strategy is that we want AU forces to be complemented and blue-helmeted," Bush explained. "We are committed to ending violence in Darfur," added Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. At a Sudan donors conference in the Belgian capital Brussels last week, US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer declared that the US pledged $116 million to the African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS). The US has contributed $247 million to AMIS since 2004. The CPA was brokered with considerable US pressure and Washington wants to play a similar role in Darfur. That has been the missing ingredient in the Darfur crisis. Where then is the sophisticated nuanced understanding of a US diplomatic approach to Sudan? Kiir's Washington visit was something of a bellwether. The international community, the AU and a majority of the armed opposition groups of Darfur want to see the deployment of UN troops in Darfur. Regional and international efforts to bring peace to Darfur are gaining momentum. These efforts could fail, as could the effort to create a modern and more democratic Sudan. But they could also succeed.
