Israeli Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon stays in his office on the fourth floor of the Defence Ministry building in the heart of Tel Aviv until the wee hours every day; there's a lot to do. He is directly responsible for implementing the decision by the security cabinet taken two weeks ago to block the transfer of any weapons from the Syrian army to “enemy terrorist forces”. As defence minister and the link between the cabinet and army, Yaalon monitors from his office attacks on targets in Syria. Speaking to the Israeli media, he indicated Israel would continue attacks in the future. At first glance, it appears Israeli attacks target weapons that Hizbullah is about to receive from Syria. This is exactly what the Israel propaganda machine is trying to promote in an attempt to legitimise its attacks. The truth is different. Roni Daniel, Israel's Channel 2 defence correspondent, reported on the evening of 9 May that a senior army source told him Israeli raids are targeting all of the Syrian army's capabilities since current conditions are a good opportunity to strip Syria of its weapons stockpile that could harm Israel's domestic front in the future if it falls in the hands of “terrorist” groups. Tel Aviv is very worried that Syrian weapons would end up with Sunni Islamist groups after the overthrow of Bashar Al-Assad's regime. Israel's attacks deep inside Syria indicate that Tel Aviv has adopted a clear strategy towards events in Syria, including obliterating the capabilities of Syria's military force and trying to influence its political geography after Al-Assad's regime is removed. Israeli decision-makers realise that Al-Assad's overthrow could trigger widespread anarchy during which Islamist groups there could play a definitive and key role. These groups are expected to take control of the majority of the regime's most dangerous weapons, including ones that could strike Eilat in the farthest south and Kiryat Shmona in the farthest north of Israel. According to Israeli Minister of Interior Gideon Saar, although the Syrian regime has owned a large arms stockpile — especially long-range weapons — for a long time, “the overthrow of the regime is very dangerous because these weapons could fall into the hands of groups that do not represent a state or any entity of authority, which makes it difficult for Israel to deter or control them.” Complicating matters further for Israelis are geo-strategic realities, because large and vital Israeli cities and important economic and industrial facilities are within range of Syrian weapons. This makes it even more risky if weapons end up in the hands of these groups. The second goal of Israel's strategy is to map out the political, ethnic and religious geography of Syria after Al-Assad's ouster in a manner that serves Israel's interests. General Uzi Dayan, former chairman of Israel's National Security Council, incessantly urges decision-makers in Tel Aviv to use the opportunity of events in Syria to “significantly and profoundly change the strategic environment” for Israel. This would be done by pushing for carving up the Syrian state into the largest number of statelets or micro-states. Dayan, who previously served as director of military intelligence AMAN, openly admitted he met and urged several decision-makers to employ their relations with the US administration and EU to push for partitioning Syria, since this would be the best way “to enable Israel to hit several birds with one stone”. He told Israeli Radio on 9 May that Syria should be divided into at least four mini states: Kurds in the northeast; Alawites on the Western coast; Druze on the eastern front of the Golan Heights; and Sunnis in the centre and south. Dayan, the nephew of former Israeli defence minister Moshe Dayan, is not the only one who is urging for partitioning Syria. A large number of Israeli officials openly call for exploiting conditions in Syria to push for this outcome. Alon Levin, former undersecretary at the foreign ministry, published a study in the research journal Seacor Memokad listing Israel's gains if Syria is carved up. Dayan believes creating an Alawite statelet would especially serve Israel's national interests because of their need for outside support in likely battles with the Sunni majority that will continue to demand revenge from Alawites. The Alawites could turn to Israel, just as the Maronites in Lebanon did. Dayan hopes this scenario would help Israel to work “legitimately and comfortably” inside Syria after Al-Assad's overthrow. He believes the creation of an Alawite state would also strengthen Israel's hand in confronting Turkey if its leaders continue to challenge the Hebrew state. Dayan pointed out there are seven million Alawites living in Turkey, and if an Alawite state is created inside Syria this could boost separatist inclinations among Turkish Alawites. This would increase Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan's troubles and force him to de-escalate with Israel. Dayan also believes a Kurdish state in northeast Syria would be a strong blow to Turkey's national security, since that would further stir separatist tendencies among Turkish Kurds. Dayan has no doubt that a Druze state on the eastern front of Israel, meanwhile, would be very beneficial, because a Druze state would be more keen on protecting Israel's security. He argued Druze figures in Israel would convince the leaders of the new micro-state to cooperate with Israel to secure the eastern border and prevent attacks against Israel from there. The Druze in Israel, in fact, volunteer to serve in the Israeli army. Although decision-makers believe partitioning Syria is an ideal solution for the Jewish state, they feel implementing this plot requires a relatively long time. Thus, Israel must take steps to protect its national security, most notably by ensuring areas of the Golan Heights currently under Syrian control do not become a launching ground for military attacks against Israel. Aluf Benn, Haaretz chief editor, uncovered secret meetings between Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Jordan's King Abdullah II in December and January to discuss procedures needed create a security belt in the heart of the Golan Heights. According to Benn, Jordan will be in charge of establishing this belt by convincing Syrian immigrants in Jordan to join armed groups based in the Golan Heights to repel military groups from attacking Israel from that border. Israel believes after the fall of the Al-Assad clan or the disintegration of the Syrian state, and in absence of a strong central authority in Damascus, the Golan will become a magnet for armed Islamist groups bent on resisting Israel and launching attacks from there. Benn asserts that the last thing Israel's political and military leaders want is for the Israeli army to overrun the Golan to establish a security belt. Tel Aviv's choice would be to leave Jordan to carry out this task. Israel obviously feels it is in a race against time to safeguard its interests, especially to ensure Syria is carved up into micro-states. Its recent military action is no doubt unfolding within the parameters of this strategic goal.
