While handshakes remain fresh on the Fatah-Hamas reconciliation track, economic conditions could soon derail the Palestinian Authority entirely, writes Khaled Amayreh in Ramallah Although he is more than 65 years old and was busy as a manager of an economic firm, the Israeli army recalled Shay Avital, a retired general who left the army more than a decade ago. This unusual move in Israeli military tradition is seen as vital as army leaders believe Avital would guarantee the success of a new army leadership unit, known as Depth Corp, in charge of special military operations deep in the Arab world. Fast-paced developments in the Arab world in the wake of revolutions for democratic change will result in numerous threats for Israel, which requires it to prepare plans to face these threats. This includes preparing for operations in the heart of the Arab world. Military leaders believe that despite Avital's advanced age he is the best qualified to head Depth Corp because of his unique expertise. During his service in the army, Avital led many elite units in the army specialising in unique operations in the heart of the Arab world, most prominently the Sayeret Matkal unit that specialised in assassination and kidnapping operations. The formation of Depth Corp is part of restructuring the Israeli army to ensure Israel's freedom of manoeuvre when necessary. The main assumption for Israeli strategists is that the Arab Spring will bring with it immense challenges to Israel's security, which in time could evolve into existential threats. Israeli military leaders fear that the countries where revolutions for democratic change have taken place could become bases for military operations against Israeli targets. Hence, decision-makers in Israel believe they need to be prepared to carry out operations deep inside states that are far away from Palestine's borders, such as Yemen and Iraq. Although political and military leaders do not give details on the threats, conditions in Yemen are of great interest to Israeli decision-makers. Some 30 per cent of Israeli trade passes through the Red Sea on its way to Southeast Asia, while Israeli navy vessels and submarines also sail through there during military exercises. Hence, Israelis fear that armed groups could launch attacks from Yemen, which overlooks the Straits of Mandab, against Israeli commercial and military vessels. This requires Israel to be prepared to work against any party that could carry out such attacks. The same applies to Egypt. Although the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces and Egyptian political parties, including Islamist movements that won the elections, are sending reassuring messages about their commitment to the Camp David Peace Treaty, Israeli decision-makers believe that the rise of Islamists to power in Egypt could foment anti-Israel sentiment there. But Israelis are most worried about future conditions in Jordan. There is consensus inside Israel about the key role Jordan plays in guaranteeing Israel's safety by securing the longest border with Palestine. Nonetheless, there are serious doubts inside Israel about the future of the incumbent regime in Jordan. Decision-makers in Tel Aviv are assuming the worst, namely the overthrow of the regime or at least transformation from absolute monarchy to a constitutional monarchy. Accordingly, Israelis are preparing to confront the repercussions of the collapse of the Jordanian regime, which would make Jordan a springboard for resistance operations against Israel. This would require the special units operating under Depth Corp to prepare for operations in the heart of Jordan, as stated by former Minister of Defence Binyamin Ben-Eliezer. Strategic analysts in Israel are also very concerned about the repercussions of the US withdrawal from Iraq, assuming that this would increase incentive for parties hostile to Israel to target Israel in an ideal environment, especially Iran and its instruments in Iraq. Israelis are most worried about Iran being able to establish missile bases in Iraq, especially western Iraq, and using them to attack Israel if the latter bombs Iranian nuclear facilities. Hence, part of the responsibilities of the new military leadership will be to deal with these threats if they materialise. At the same time, Depth Corp will play a key role in any military attacks by Israel against Iranian nuclear facilities. The Israeli army's leadership believes that air strikes alone by Israel's Air Force against nuclear facilities would not be enough to ensure serious damage to these facilities. Hence, there is a need for special units on the ground to also take part in the attack to ensure the operation is successful. At the same time, planting these units inside Iran would increase the targets that complement air strikes. Israel strategists also believe that the chances of Damascus escaping the fate of the regimes of Muammar Gaddafi, Hosni Mubarak and Zein Al-Abidine bin Ali is decreasing, hence it is preparing to deal with the serious consequences of the post-Assad phase. Israeli military leaders realise that any regime that replaces Bashar Al-Assad would not be able -- at least in the beginning -- to prevent the Golan Heights from becoming a launching pad for resistance operations against Israel. This would be a root change in the strategic environment for Israel, since the Golan Heights overlooks many Jewish industrial and residential centres. At the same time, instability on the Syrian front means deterioration in security conditions for Jewish settlements built on the Golan Heights, which have been safe and quiet throughout the rule of the Assad family. In fact, this has resulted in a large number of Jews wanting to live on the Golan Heights over the past two decades. Matters are further complicated by the fact that it would be impossible for Israel to deter expected resistance operations by groups and movements inside Syria, especially traditional military operations. Israelis know that they will yearn for the days when the Assad regime was in power because Tel Aviv was largely successful in its power of deterrence towards that regime, forcing Damascus to endure Tel Aviv's insults without even attempting to respond. Israel bombed the Syrian nuclear research facility in northeast Syria at the end of 2006, Mossad killed several officials in the Syrian nuclear programme, as well as assassinating the leader of the armed wing of Hizbullah, Emad Mughniyeh, in the heart of Damascus, without the Al-Assad regime taking a single serious step against Israel, even in the media. Strategists in Israel believe that even if the regime in Syria is toppled and civil war breaks out, this development would also carry serious consequences because it would result in the formation of armed groups and militias who would later turn their attention to attacking Israel. Accordingly, there is a need for Depth Corp to confront these threats if they materialise. At the same time, Israel assumes that once the Assad regime realises it is standing on its last legs it will transfer its heavy weaponry arsenal to Hizbullah, which would require Israel to intercede and bomb weapons caravans in transit or attack the storage facilities where they will be located. One can surmise from the debate that took place about forming Depth Corp that Israeli military leaders believe that Arab revolutions increase the ability of Palestinian resistance to obtain weapons, which would change the balance of power between the resistance and Israel. Israeli decision-makers agree that current conditions in several Arab states where there have been revolutions for democratic change will allow the flow of weapons to the Gaza Strip -- even if only because the concerned governments are unable to thoroughly monitor theirs precincts and borders. Choosing targets in the depth of Arab states and operating in the heart of Arab countries will be a key mechanism in Israeli operations to contain the repercussions of, and enhance weaknesses within, revolutions for democratic change in the Arab world.
