In what can be easily construed as a provocative measure, Ethiopia promised to push ahead with an ambitious programme for hydroelectric projects on the Blue Nile and some of its tributaries. A total of five projects, including the Renaissance Dam, have now obtained an official seal. The news, in all likelihood, will add to tensions already existing between that country and its downstream neighbours, Egypt and Sudan. The announcement came during celebrations marking two years since the start of the Renaissance Dam, the massive project that has become a bone of contention between Egypt and Ethiopia. Reports of Israel's involvement in various water projects in Ethiopia are hardly reassuring to the Egyptians. The history of Ethiopia's hydroelectric ambitions goes back to a non-official American paper submitted to Ethiopia in the mid-20th century. This paper drew a comprehensive plan for several water projects designed to double the Ethiopian share of the Nile water and allow the country more control over the water flowing to Sudan and Egypt. The essence of the American paper is what the current plans are all about, although the details differ in matters concerning the size of the dams involved. In fact, the locations of the dams are just the same as the Americans suggested many years ago, and the justifications the Ethiopians keep giving for this project match exactly the ones in the said paper. Recent official statements coming from Addis Ababa are worrying on more than one level. Most importantly, Ethiopia seems to have forgotten that negotiations are underway on this issue. An Egyptian-Sudanese-Ethiopian Committee is still looking into the consequences of such hydrological projects, and the committee is yet to submit its findings to the governments in question. Now it seems that Addis Ababa has decided to jump the gun and go ahead with its project irrespective of the findings of the committee, which is no way to handle differences of such gravity with one's neighbours. It would seem, therefore, that Ethiopian participation in the said committee was little more than a tactical gesture, a way to silence its neighbours while having its way. One has to conclude that the negotiations were more of a cover than a quest to manage an incredibly thorny issue in a manner satisfactory to all those concerned. Ethiopia, as you may know, maintains that none of its current or future projects will impact adversely on Egypt or Sudan, at least not in a perceptible manner. Hence, the Ethiopians may argue, the discussions held at the tripartite committee must not interfere with the progress of ongoing projects, since the latter are unlikely to cause any damage to downstream countries anyway. This is rather contradictory, for the mere act of holding talks is to decide on the outcome of a certain course of action, and thereby agreeing to it or choose another course of action. To go ahead and do something that may contradict the outcome of the talks is to rob the talks of all substance. Experts looking into the possible outcome of the current Ethiopian hydroelectric projects have offered a wide array of views, not all compatible with what the Ethiopians say. Unlike the official Ethiopian position, technical studies and expert opinions suggest that the Renaissance Dam and the rest of the project planned for the Blue Nile may reduce significantly the amount of water going downstream. At present, Egypt receives through the Blue Nile more than 85 per cent of its annual quota of 55 billion cubic metres. Some experts say that once the dams are complete, Egypt will lose more than 30 per cent of its quota and Sudan will lose nearly 20 per cent of Sudan's quota. Others estimates speak of a 10 per cent loss in Egypt's case and five per cent loss in Sudan's case. The loss of water will lead to a loss in agricultural production, which some say will amount to 50 per cent of the total in Egypt's case. The extent of the losses can be greater if Ethiopia decides to fill up its newly built reservoirs immediately, rather than over a number of years. One has to keep in mind that the Renaissance Dam will create a reservoir with a storage capacity of 40-60 billion cubic metres, which is close to Egypt's water supply for a whole year. Let's now turn to another aspect of the issue, which is Israel's involvement. Israel's activities in Africa are not a secret. But the details of these activities are less than transparent. We have known for many years that Israel was forging friendships with various non-Arab countries in Africa, both on the Nile Valley and the Horn of Africa — especially with Eritrea, Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Kenya and South Sudan. In fact, relations between Israel and South Sudan started long before the south went independent. Israel has always been interested in the Nile water. During peace negotiations with Egypt, Israeli officials kept asking president Anwar Al-Sadat to supply Israel with water across Sinai, a request that he turned down. Now that Israel failed to access Nile water through Egypt, it is trying to make life difficult for both downstream countries: Egypt and Sudan. Zvi Mazel, a former Israeli ambassador to Cairo, once wrote a study for his Foreign Ministry's Centre for Political Research, in which he suggested that it was in Israel's interest to internationalise the conflict involving Nile Basin countries. An Israeli periodical, elaborating on the same idea, recently published papers suggesting that countries in the Horn of Africa should be approached differently according to their religion. For some reason, it seems that Israel believes that a growing polarisation between Christian and Muslim countries in the Horn of Africa may play out in its favour. When you look at the history of water projects in Ethiopia, you'll see that Israel has always been present, if not officially then through business connections and expertise. Some Israeli companies are involved in land surveying, while others help with feasibility studies. Israeli civilians may also be involved in providing funding for the Renaissance Dam, although the Ethiopians categorically deny any involvement by Israel in the project. In 2009, Israel and Germany signed an agreement with Ethiopia to develop the latter's agricultural sector. The project is supposed to raise the efficiency of Ethiopia's irrigation and drainage operations in Amhara, Tigray, Oromia, and the South Ethiopia Peoples' States. Therefore it is hard to look at the projects of Ethiopian dams in isolation from the regional context. The question of water availability is paramount, of course. But let's not forget the question of national security.
