The River Nile has been the subject of endless treaties, most finalised during the colonial period, all of them imposed to ensure that Egypt and Sudan, as the two downstream states, are guaranteed access to sufficient water. But a status quo that has been in place for more than a century is now crumbling beneath the combined weight of population pressure and geopolitical changes. South Sudan seceded in 2011. Upstream Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopia — source of 85 per cent of Egypt's 55.5 billion cubic metre quota of Nile water — Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda are all battling to further national development. “Egypt,” says international water expert Diaa Al-Kousi, “could face losing 20 per cent of its 55.5 billion cubic metre quota when the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is built.” Cairo seems to be making light of what many see as an urgent issue with officials repeatedly insisting water scarcity is not a major problem. “In the past, Egypt's ties with many African countries, including Ethiopia, were stumbling. Now there are great chances of enhancing cooperation that satisfies the interests of all sides. Mutual talks in this regard are currently taking place and we welcome the refurbishment of old relations with Africa,” President Mohamed Morsi said in Addis Ababa earlier this month. More tellingly, he also found it necessary to deny allegations that Cairo and Khartoum were considering military action against the as yet un-built Ethiopian dam should it be necessary to protect their quotas of water. Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam, says Al-Kousi, will be 250 metres high and create a lake of 72 billion cubic metres. “Ethiopia anticipates cultivating millions of feddans with the water. It has already sold one million feddans to the Saudi company Savola to grow sunflowers for oil and 1.6 million feddans to a US agri-business. The water that is used, as well as that stored in the lake, would once have flowed through Egypt.” Cairo is refusing to sign the Framework Convention of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) before three conditions are added guaranteeing Egypt's historic claims to its quota. It is demanding source countries explicitly acknowledge Egypt's historic right to 55.5 billion cubic metres of water, that they continue to seek Egyptian approval for any upstream water projects and that any existing convention articles be amended only if they secure the unanimous approval of all parties. Upstream states have categorically refused Cairo's conditions. Some source countries suffer from periodic drought, points out former minister of water resources and irrigation Mohamed Nasreddin Allam. They are anxious to utilise the Nile for irrigation and, in some cases, for producing hydroelectricity, as well. “The Nile Basin Initiative [NBI] was launched in 1998 to establish regional cooperation among the countries who share the Nile following major agricultural changes,” says Allam. Egypt has no problem in supporting any of the Nile Basin countries which want to build dams for producing electricity “as these types of dams do not affect Egypt's quota of the water”, he adds. But dams built for storing water to be used in agriculture are another matter altogether. They constitute a “huge threat to Egypt's share of Nile water and accordingly Egypt can never agree to them”. Yet despite Egyptian and Sudanese objections to Ethiopia's dam project Addis Ababa is going ahead. Access to Nile water is based upon several immutable principles, insists professor of international law Ahmed Abul-Wafa: the shares of individual states must be in proportion with population size and the area of land under cultivation and no Nile Basin state should act in a way that harms any other country using Nile water. Yet what happens when these principles are flouted? “There aren't a lot of alternatives in such cases,” says Abul-Wafa. “Other than political and diplomatic negotiations and international arbitration, the only remaining option is the use of military force.” Historically, only Egypt and Sudan had a guaranteed share of Nile water. Other Nile Basin countries received enough rainfall annually to cover their agricultural needs. While early agreements were signed by Britain and Italy as colonial powers, the most recent agreement on quotas was signed by Egypt and Sudan in 1959. “All these agreements,” says Abul-Wafa “are protected by international law.” The 1959 agreement saw Egypt's total share of the Nile waters rise to 55.5 billion cubic metres and Sudan's to 14.5 billion cubic metres. This amount comprises six to eight per cent of the total rainfall over the Nile Basin. Much of the rest is lost, some through evapotranspiration — the consumption of plants — yet more by seepage into the ground. “What we use is very little when compared to the potential. Yet to tap this potential there must be far better management of the water in some areas, such as the equatorial lakes where water losses are huge. Weeds consume more than is lost through natural evaporation,” says Abul-Wafa. “The Nile can provide for all of the countries lying in its basin if properly used,” said Ibrahim Nasreddin of Cairo University's African Institute. “Many Nile Basin countries want to irrigate far more than in the past. But such decisions cannot be taken unilaterally. From now on there must be consultation and mutual agreement,” argues Nasreddin. Egypt will eventually need to increase its own quota, he says. “Due to population growth an individual Egyptian's share of potable water is less than 750 cubic metres per year, compared to 2,000 in upstream states. Officials must start talking about this and associated issues. The most important principal is that the Nile is for all countries.” Despite the failure to reach any agreement, Egypt has made it absolutely clear to everyone that it supports and will continue to support any development that does not harm Egypt's water quota. Much of the concern about the equitable distribution of Nile waters seems to stem from the fear that there will be limited resources to share in the very near future, due to the high population growth rates in the basin region. “For the time being we do not have a real problem with our water as we use our quota two and a half fold by recycling,” says Allam.
