With agricultural and other uses of water increasing and the possibility of conflict looming with other Nile Basin countries, Egypt is in danger of losing its water security, writes Galal Nassar At a recent meeting of the Nile Basin countries in Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt refused to sign the final agreement on the distribution of the Nile's water, saying that its needs had been ignored and bringing dire predictions of increasing conflict over water from the River Nile just that little bit closer. According to Egypt's minister of irrigation and water resources, Mohamed Nasreddin Allam, who recently replaced Mahmoud Abu Zeid, Egypt refused to sign the agreement since it did not specify Egypt's quota of Nile water. With Egypt's water rights coming under fire at the meeting, Allam reasserted Egypt's right, established in previous agreements, to veto upstream water projects, even as questions arose over the handling of the previous negotiations by former minister Abu Zeid. According to published figures, Egypt has dipped below the "water poverty" line of an estimated 1,000 cubic metres per capita per annum, the country's water supply now standing at an average of 750 cubic metres. Such figures put the country at the mercy of upstream countries and hold out the possibility of potentially ugly conflict over water in the future. Present disagreement between Egypt and the upper riparian nations over water from the Nile began in the late 1990s, prompting Abu Zeid to enter into negotiations with the other Nile Basin countries in Switzerland in 1997. During these negotiations, Egypt demanded an increase in its main quota of 55.5 billion cubic metres per year, citing increases in its water needs. These talks ended with the drafting of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) in 2000. This agreement, which remains on the drawing board, aimed to increase water resources for upstream countries, such as Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which have accused Egypt of taking advantage of agreements signed in colonial times in order to maximise its water advantages. These agreements include the 1929 agreement, which the British signed on behalf of what were then British colonies, and the 1959 agreement that Egypt signed with the Sudan without consultation with other upper riparian nations. However, the previous round of negotiations presided over by former minister Abu Zeid has remained opaque in terms of results, Abu Zeid being said to have spent three years planning development projects costing a total of $211 million in the upstream countries without achieving much progress in terms of negotiations over Egypt's quota of Nile water. When Abu Zeid was asked to comment on the negotiations, he said that a new agreement guaranteeing Egypt an adequate quota of Nile water was within reach. As a result, approval of such an agreement was expected by the heads of state of the Nile Basin countries meeting at the African summit held in July 2008 in Sharm El-Sheikh. When this did not happen, it became clear that Abu Zeid had either not given a true picture of the situation, or that he had been unaware of the flaws in the draft agreement. Either way, when Egypt requested that an additional 11 billion cubic metres of water be added to its historical quota of 55.5 billion cubic metres, the upstream countries balked at the idea. Abu Zeid is also said to have failed to coordinate with the Sudan, the only other Arab country that lies in the Nile Basin and with which Egypt signed an agreement in 1959. While various reasons have been given for Abu Zeid's dismissal and his replacement as minister by Allam, inevitably attention has turned to the failure of the NBI talks. However, even with a new minister in charge Egypt still needs more water, owing in particular to expanding needs for agricultural use, notably as a result of the Toshka project and other developments. It also needs more water to provide for the tourist resorts and golf courses that are mushrooming across the country on often formerly arid land. Government agencies seem to have collaborated with businessmen in approving water- intensive projects without thinking of the consequences for the country's overall water needs, and as a result there are said to be feuds in government between officials at the ministries of irrigation and agriculture, with other Arab and African countries displeased at the conduct of Egypt's Ministry of Irrigation. With Egypt's water security under possible threat, and as Egyptian leverage over upstream countries has waned, the government has also discussed the idea of selling Nile water to farmers in a bid to reduce use and increase efficiency. While the idea has been shelved for the time being, it nevertheless should have a wake-up effect on the country as a whole and serve as a reminder of the seriousness of the situation. Many countries are now facing shortages of fresh water, with the possibility of conflict over precious water resources looming large in several regions. According to recent estimates, half the world's population is now threatened with political instability and climate change, and wars over water may well replace wars over oil, as UN Secretary- General Ban Ki-Moon has recently said. While Egypt is therefore not alone in facing a shortage of water, it is too late to pretend that this is a problem that need only be dealt with in the future. According to figures released by the Egyptian Irrigation Ministry and the World Bank, Egypt's water consumption stood at 64 billion cubic metres in 1997 and 72 billion cubic metres in 2000. Meanwhile, the country's water resources consist of 55.5 billion cubic metres representing Egypt's quota from the Nile, four billion cubic metres representing rain on the north coast, and 6.4 billion cubic metres representing drainage water re-used for irrigation. In other words, more than 90 per cent of the country's present consumption comes from the Nile. Constituting a reservoir holding 1.3 million square miles of water, the Nile Basin is shared by 10 countries: Rwanda, Burundi, Congo, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. Until 1993, Egypt's annual per capita consumption of water stood at 1,000 cubic metres, though this has been falling and by 2025 it is likely to have dropped to 550 cubic metres. According to experts, Egypt also loses nearly 35 per cent of the water released into the Nile at Aswan every year. Of this water, some 8.1 billion cubic metres end up in the Mediterranean, and nearly 11 billion cubic metres of drainage water is dumped annually into the sea. When evaporation and leakage are added, the figures indicate that Egypt may be losing up to half of its water resources. Also according to experts, Egypt's present system of agricultural irrigation is less than 50 per cent efficient. According to Nader Nour, professor at the Cairo University Faculty of Agriculture, the open irrigation system used in Egyptian agriculture, also known as the inundation system, leads to the loss of up to half of the country's limited water resources. As a result of growing demands for water and of increasing pollution, with the noted Egyptian geologist Rushdi Said arguing that the river now serves as a receptacle for much of Egypt's industrial, urban and agricultural waste, the Nile is working double time. Not only does it supply up to 90 per cent of Egypt's water needs, but it also flushes away nearly 75 per cent of the country's waste. As a result, the river is very polluted by the time it reaches the sea. In addition to an unspecified amount of treated sewage that is pumped into it, the Nile carries nearly 10 billion cubic metres of drainage water and industrial refuse every year. Over 500 million cubic metres of industrial waste are dumped into the river every year, with toxins contained in spent irrigation and waste water poisoning crops and fish alike. Moreover, the abolition of crop rotation and the cultivation of new strains of crops that grow out of season have altered the pattern of agricultural water use. The expansion of rice farming has led to overuse of irrigation water, since the existing canals and waterways are hardly designed for the increased needs of irrigating some two million feddans of rice farms. Areas planted with rice should not exceed 1.1 million feddans, according to experts. Such background features of Egypt's increasing water use have meant that the challenge coming from the Nile Basin countries to Egypt's traditional right to dictate its water needs has come at a particularly difficult time. Previous agreements, such as the 1929 agreement between Egypt and Britain that was binding on the former British colonies of Uganda, Kenya and Tanganyika/Tanzania, the 1953 agreement between the Egyptian and Ugandan governments, and the Egyptian-Sudanese agreement of 1959, are now being questioned since African countries are refusing to recognise agreements signed during the colonial period. Moreover, conflict over the distribution of the Nile's water is hardly new. Following the signature of the 1959 Egyptian-Sudanese agreement, for example, Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda called for an additional five billion cubic metres to be made available to them annually to meet development needs. Even then, upstream countries resented having to abide by treaties concluded during colonial times. In 1957, Ethiopia said that it would develop water projects on the Blue Nile and would not guarantee the delivery of water to downstream countries. The country then announced a programme to build two reservoirs on the Blue Nile and the Atbara River for irrigation and electricity generation purposes, ushering in a first phase of confrontation with Egypt. Foreign and regional powers are also said to have fuelled conflict over Nile water, with the finger of blame pointed at French-US rivalry in the Great Lakes area and in the Horn of Africa and at deals made by countries as various as Italy, Israel, Iran, China, Japan and South Africa. Yet, despite this history and the present situation, Egypt seems thus far to be in denial over the possibility of increasing conflicts over the Nile's water. The day before he left office, for example, former minister Abu Zeid denied the existence of problems with the Nile Basin countries over Egypt's quota of Nile water, saying that relations between Egypt and Nile Basin countries were satisfactory and that Egypt was helping upstream countries to develop their water resources. The government has, however, made efforts to improve efficiency in the country's consumption of water. In 1996, Abdel-Hadi Radi, a former minister of irrigation, submitted a memorandum proposing a strategy for more efficient water consumption that would involve improved irrigation methods, increased reliance on groundwater, better use of treated drainage and sewage water, restrictions on water-intensive crops, and the sale of irrigation water to farmers. As a result, the Ministry of Irrigation made efforts to improve irrigation methods, modernise pumping stations, introduce automatic control gates, and encourage end-users to create their own associations. The first modernisation project was undertaken in the governorates of Beheira and Kafr Al-Sheikh in late 2008, and, covering 216,000 feddans, this aimed at helping nearly 4,000 associations of water end-users to improve their irrigation systems. By mid-2008, 480,000 feddans had undergone modernisation. The ministries of irrigation and agriculture are currently helping farmers introduce drip and drizzle irrigation methods on reclaimed land, as well as on farms in the Nile Valley and Delta. In February 2009, the government decided to introduce modernisation techniques to five million feddans of existing arable land, the aim being to save nearly eight billion cubic metres of water and use this to reclaim and cultivate nearly three million additional feddans of land. Thus far, however, the government has resisted recommendations that water be priced and sold to farmers. Former minister Abu Zeid voiced the consensus view when he said that water should be free to all and promising farmers that they would never have to pay for it. Overall, though, the implementation of modern irrigation techniques has been slow, and it has proven difficult to restrict areas cultivated with water-intensive crops. Because of the phasing out of crop rotation, farmers are also continuously planting high-yield, but water-intensive, crops such as rice, vegetables and sugarcane. As for Egypt's underground water, excessive use has led to considerable waste. Contrary to common belief, underground water is not always renewable or sweet, and excessive use has increased its salinity. This has taken place at several farms relying on such water, and their owners have called for water to be pumped from the Nile at a cost of some LE5.1 billion. Luxury projects, including man-made lakes, swimming pools and golf courses, have all added to Egypt's water woes, with the Irrigation Ministry already ordering thousands of illegal wells to be shut down. Some of these orders have not been carried out, allegedly because of political connections among the violators, and the Irrigation Ministry has subsequently accused businessmen and government agencies affiliated with the ministries of agriculture, oil and awqaf (religious endowments) of digging wells without permission. A further concern is that some of Egypt's much-touted national projects are likely to add to the country's water woes. The Salam Canal, for example, which will take Nile water to the Sinai, is one such project. When completed, the canal is planned to help cultivate an additional 620,000 feddans of agricultural land, but as things stand it may only add to current water shortages. The Toshka project, covering an area of some 500,000 feddans, will also add to pressures on water supplies. When ambitious projects like these come into conflict with political and economic realities something will have to give. But what? For now, no one has an answer.
