Doaa El-Bey attends a seminar positing a pragmatic rethink of Egypt's regional role Egypt must focus on resolving inter- Palestinian conflicts, play a more active role in Sudan within an African framework and act to counterbalance Iran's growing regional influence according to a seminar, "Rethinking of Egypt's strategic role in the region", organised by the International Centre for Future and Strategic Studies. The seminar stressed the centrality of the Palestinian issue to Egyptian security and national interests. Hassan Issa, former head of the Israel desk at the Egyptian Foreign Ministry, said Gaza constitutes Egypt's first line of defence and the eruption of violence in the Strip could all too easily cross borders. Calm between the different Palestinian factions, he argued, should be Egypt's major goal at the present stage. Egypt's role, which Issa described as historic, must be to foster national understanding in the interests of the Palestinians as well as Egyptian security. He ruled out any hope of Egypt pushing Palestinian Israeli peace talks ahead for at least three years given the weakness of the parties involved -- US President George Bush, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and the Palestinian government. In analysing the current situation in Sudan, Hani Raslan from Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, said the peace accord signed in 2005 had created a new entity divided between north and south. In addition, there is now talk about amending the Abuja Declaration to divide Sudan into six provinces between which authority rotate. Among the challenges that face Sudan and will impact on Egypt's national security he counted the 2010 referendum on independence for the south, developments in the Darfur crisis that could affect the entire region, and calls for dividing north and central Sudan into smaller provinces. Should matters spin out of control, Sudan could slip into a pattern of chaos similar to that in Somalia or Iraq, leading Raslan to recommend that Cairo give the utmost importance to ensuring such a direct threat to its own national security is avoided. On the political level, he said, Egypt should work to reach a political agreement with all parties in Sudan within an African rather than Arab framework. On an economic level, he argued Cairo should seek economic partnerships and abandon any talk about integration, since the time is not ripe. Such partnership should facilitate the flow of individuals, commodities and capital and in so doing create new bases for cooperation between the two states. "A strategic partnership like that between EU member states is a positive and peaceful aim for the next phase. The political independence of both states should be preserved," he said. On the international level, Raslan argued the US was unlikely to welcome Egypt playing such a role in Sudan. The key, he argued, would be to forge a deal in which Egypt plays a bigger role vis-à-vis its southern neighbour in exchange for partially relinquishing its role in Palestine and Iraq. Medhat Hammad, editor of the Iranian Strategic Report, spoke about ways in which Egypt might counterbalance Iranian influence in the Gulf, Turkey, Central and South East Asia. As early as 1989 Tehran, he said, realised it could not rely on exporting its own brand of revolution to its neighbours. Since then, he said, Iran has worked on consolidating cultural and religious ties. Egypt, as a consequence, must draw up a clear strategy to counter Iranian influence that operates on the cultural and religious levels. Hammad's suggestions included establishing a satellite channel in Farsi, targeting the language's 40 million speakers. He also recommended the building of a network of Egyptian cultural centres that could facilitate exchange programmes and organise cultural events. On a religious level, he said Egypt must stop ignoring the needs of millions of Shia Muslims who currently turn to Iran for religious counselling. Cairo, he argued, must exert every effort to re-establish ties with Iran. He pointed out that territorial disputes between Iran and the United Arab Emirates had not prevented Dubai from emerging as Iran's largest trading partner. And the only way to re-establish full diplomatic relations, he insisted, is a summit meeting between President Hosni Mubarak and Ali Khamenei. Mahmoud Barakat, former head of the Arab Institute for Atomic Energy, spoke on Iran's nuclear programme, ruling out any suggestions that the programme could represent a threat to Egypt's national security. "Egyptian national security comes from inside Egypt. Maintaining democracy and working hard to produce our needs are what will furnish us with security," he said. Strengthening Egypt's regional role, Barakat went on to add, depends on reinforcing the scientific, political and moral life of the country. Without doing so, he said, Egypt's regional influence will gradually erode. Nabil Othman, former chairman of the State Information Service, attributed any waning in Cairo's influence to the fact that the positions Egypt sometimes adopts conflict with the interests of other parties. He criticised the prevailing habit of reacting only in the face of emergency: it was, he said, tantamount to trying to treat cancer with aspirin, hardly the right approach when much of the world -- and not, as Condoleezza Rice seeks to suggest, only the Middle East -- is undergoing a period of "creative chaos". The only way to regain our regional role, concluded Othman, is to create a strong economy and search for the national goals capable of uniting Egyptians behind them. "We have to give up our timidity in dealing with external problems and take strong and open stands that the public will support," he said.
