Yet more talks to end Lebanon's long-running political crisis are in the offing. Beirut has been down this path many times before, but France's initiative may stand a chance of success, Lucy Fielder reports from Beirut Warring political factions have tentatively welcomed a French offer to host talks in Paris, giving rise to a rare mood of optimism despite ongoing fighting in the north between the Lebanese army and the Sunni militants of Fatah Al-Islam. Leaders from both sides of the fence have accepted the invitation by new French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner to an informal "ice- breaker" in late June. Kouchner dispatched envoy Jean-Claude Cousseran to Lebanon this week to do the rounds, meeting its plentiful religious and political leaders. "It is a simple, clear and well-intentioned initiative, and it is based upon France's interest in taking part in the rebuilding of trust between the various Lebanese factions," Cousseran told reporters. Initiatives earlier this year by the Arab League and Saudi Arabia ended in failure. What has changed, as the standoff between the government and the opposition rolls into its seventh month, is that the international tribunal to try Rafik Al-Hariri's killers has become a fait accompli. A 30 May UN Security Council vote, under Chapter VII, removed the issue from Lebanese hands, and the court came into effect on 10 June. The controversial tribunal was established despite the concerns of the Hizbullah-led opposition, which backed the court in principle but was suspected by critics of doing its ally Syria's bidding. Lebanon's ruling, pro-Western, 14 March movement accuses Syria, which dominated Lebanon after the civil war ended in 1990, of killing Al-Hariri in February 2005. Given its difficult birth, the effect the tribunal will have on Lebanon remains to be seen. But the removal of one major sticking point appears to have spurred the French initiative and galvanised both sides into tackling the other unresolved issues: power-sharing and the presidency. As soon as the Security Council had voted, Al-Hariri's son Saad, head of the parliamentary majority, extended an olive branch to Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah on Lebanese television. "I don't think the French have any secret formula, but we're in a new phase in the country where a deal on a new government, presidential elections and the electoral law is now feasible," said Paul Salem, head of the Carnegie Endowment's Middle East Centre in Beirut. "I think there is also international pressure to use that to bring the country back to some normalcy." The opposition wants a veto-wielding third of the cabinet, which the US-backed government has so far rejected. Salem said it appeared that French, Saudi Arabian and Iranian pressure appeared to be nudging the government towards accepting such a formula in return for guarantees. Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun's visit to Paris at the end of May can be seen in that context, Salem said. The former general may have been required to promise that if he controlled more cabinet seats, the opposition would not seek to "sabotage" the government. The government is also being "squeezed" in regard to the battle at the Nahr Al-Bared Palestinian refugee camp north of Tripoli, says Osama Safa, head of the Lebanese Centre for Policy Studies, perhaps making it more inclined to negotiate. "If they prolong this too long it will probably weaken them by weakening the only institution still standing, and that is the army. So their backs are against the wall right now and they're all looking for a graceful exit." France's change of guard is another factor. Concerning France's former colony, President Nicolas Sarkozy is unencumbered by his predecessor Jacques Chirac's close friendship with the Al-Hariri family. Although no radical change in direction is expected, analysts expect a slightly more even-handed approach to Lebanese affairs. "We no longer see the personal touch towards foreign policy that Chirac had," Safa says. "Sarkozy still toes the line, he's not about to reward Syria, but he's moving closer towards pragmatic policy-making, at least when dealing with the Syrians and Iranians." The acceptance of the other major Western powerbroker in Lebanon, Washington, will also be crucial. The opposition says the United States has blocked previous deals to end the crisis in order to put pressure on arch-foe Syria and Hizbullah, the latter at Israel's behest. "I think the Americans have also realised lately that they do need the Syrians, they do need the Iranians, and it's time for more realistic policy-making," Safa said. "The situation is a long way off from a full thaw in relations, but at least they are sitting and talking." Iran is Shia guerrilla and political group Hizbullah's chief backer. The United States and Iran held talks in Baghdad in May. Although the agenda of the most high-level contact in 30 years was narrowly confined to Iraq's spiralling bloodshed, any easing in US-Iranian relations could have a knock-on effect in Lebanon, where they back opposite sides. "I think there's a good chance we might have an agreement, maybe 50/50," Safa said. Outlining the unity government's programme in advance is at the crux of the French proposal, Safa says. "It's a whole package deal." The opposition will look for reassurances on the status of Hizbullah's armed resistance. The other side is mainly concerned with finding a satisfactory compromise candidate for the presidential elections in September. The three-year extension, in September 2004, of incumbent Emile Lahoud's term, by means of a constitutional amendment and under Syrian pressure, precipitated the current crisis. The anti- Syrian faction called for his resignation after coming to power in June the following year. Agreeing on a couple of presidential nominees will be at the heart of negotiations in Paris, Safa predicts. Controversial names such as Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea and prominent opposition figure Michel Aoun would most likely be ruled out and compromise candidates agreed upon. Under Lebanon's constitution, the president should be elected by two-thirds of parliament. There are widespread fears of a power vacuum if no candidate is agreed upon. Under Lebanon's sectarian power-sharing tradition, the president must be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim and the parliamentary speaker a Shia. It remains unclear who the candidates will be, but oft-repeated names include Central Bank Governor Riad Salama, commander of the Lebanese army Michel Suleiman and "14 March" moderate Boutros Harb.
