Iraq's latest elections have proved that the future scenarios are still open for all possibilities. This means that both the Nouri al-Maliki government and the seven-year occupation have failed to put democracy on the right path in Iraq. The internal and regional players in Iraq have different, conflicting agendas. The Maliki bloc, the State of Justice and Law, talked about fraud while international observers said that the election process conformed with the international standards. They were the first who went to Tehran to get Iranian support after they lost marginally against their rivals the Iraqiya bloc of Iyad Allawi. The Sadrists are another group that is loyal to Iran. Their leader has just fled the country and lives in Tehran, but leads about 6,000 armed troops in the south from the Persian capital. Both al-Maliki and Sadrists blocs want to impose a Shi'ite domination of the government. This puts the country on the verge of another chaos and civil war. The Iraqiya bloc of former prime minister Allawi is a nationalist secular group. It believes that the future of the country cannot be built on sectarian division. They support reconciliation with non-Saddamist Baathists. In fact, the atrocity of Saddam Hussein was directed against all sectors and faiths. He had 17 Shi'ite ministers out of his 30- member cabinet. His first vice-president was a Kurd. It is unwise not to have reconciliation with Baathists. If Russia had condemned its army and security officers after the fall of communism, it would not have an army today. After the 1979 Iranian Revolution against Shah, the first decision taken by Ayatollah Khomeini was to pardon army and security officers. The problem is not about keeping the army only. Another important goal is achieved by pardoning and reconciliation, which is alienating those who are inclined to fight and to make resistance groups. Now the main resistance in Iraq is under the leadership of Ezzat Ibrahim, the former vice-president of Saddam Hussein. In the north, the Kurds support the incumbent President Jalal Talabani to have a second term. The main Kurdish problem is to keep the culture and wealth for themselves under a semi-independent local government. They know that Arabs, Turks and Iranians will not be happy if they declare their independent state. They are subjected to regular military operations by Turkey and to a lesser degree by Iran to dismantle bases of armed groups. Syria treats them badly as well. However, while the Arab leaders were in Libya for a pan-Arab summit with Turkish participation, Talabani flew to Tehran to discuss the future government. Al-Qaeda is another terror player that refuses all other groups. To fight it, all groups should unite, and the army officers should be loyal to the country not to the sectarian groups. Before the Americans leave Iraq, they should find a solution for the country that they have occupied for false reasons. If they left before containing al-Qaeda there, terrorism will have a boost in Iraq and in other places. Iraqi politicians should put the country's interests above other interests. If they keep their loyalty to ideologies, the country will have two probable bad scenarios. The first is a civil war that may open the door to regional forces to play more to achieve their agendas. The second option that is still in mind of American strategies is to plot for a military coup with the return of dictatorship. This option, unfortunately, will cast doubt on viability of democracy not only in Iraq but also in many other places. Even the delay to form a government will put this option on the table as the Americans should leave Iraq by 2011 to concentrate on another failed front ��" Afghanistan. They may choose dictatorship in Iraq to prevent Iran from using the Iraqi file to serve its nuclear ambitions and to have a regime that can support their allies in the Gulf to reduce the cost of the region's defence process. The months ahead will tell. [email protected] Hany is an Egyptian writer, who regularly contributes to the Gazette.
