THIRTY-one years after the fall of the Shah of Iran and the return of Ayatollah Khomeini, the new generation born after the 1978 revolution and with no real memory of it, now find themselves near those who had been at the core of the revolution. Three post-revolution generations are now asking for the same thing their ancestors asked for 31 years ago: freedom, democracy and a responsible government! When we look back to how Ayatollah Khomeini returned to Iran from exile, it begs the question: Could someone have prevented his return and therefore the whole revolution from taking place? If that was at all possible, why did Shahpour Bakhtiar (the last prime minister of the Shah), apparently do nothing? We can answer this question by having a closer look at the recent situation in Iran. Why in the past eight months has the Islamic Republic, or better Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenehi, not ordered the arrest, imprisonment or even assassination of opposition leader Mossavi? Most likely, the reason why Mossavi is safe today, is similar to why Bakhtiar did nothing with Khomeini 31 years ago: that both men were already too well-known and too popular to be removed quietly. The Iranian government today knows that the easiest way to fuel the fire of any resistance movement is to remove the leading figure, who would then become a martyr to the cause, a symbol of resistance and a powerful rallying cry for change, against the backdrop of a morally corrupt ruling system. Right now Mirhousain Mosavi's popularity is as high as it was during last year's presidential election. Iran's leaders are fully aware of this and the power that he now has both at home and abroad. Iran is today in a similar condition to 31 years ago with the fall of the Shah. People are tired and angry with the regime and the way it uses the name of God and religion not only to prop up its legitimacy, but to justify the killing, torture, corruption and despotism that goes hand-in-hand with it. Perhaps this is why that, despite the harshness used against protesters in the past eight months, which has often found its way onto the international media stage, no-one has yet decided to throw in the towel and return to the former uneasy order. What is more is that the regime knows that Iranians are able to tolerate and live in oppressed conditions, but that they will not tolerate similar conditions for their most beloved anti-establishment leaders. It is the people of Iran that form a shield between reformist leaders and the government. Now, we can fully understand why the regime does nothing to Mossavi or Karobi. When Bakhtiar allowed Ayatollah Khomeini's plane to land at Tehran airport, perhaps Bakhtiar hoped that such an act would appease protesters. That by having him among people, perhaps the government hoped that they would be fulfilled by his presence alone and throw aside any longing for change. But Ayatollah Khomeini was a smart and shrewd politician as well as a religious leader. He acted swiftly, forming a temporary government and called on the army to lay down their weapons and join the movement. He saw the chink in the plan to isolate him, and used the opportunity to topple the monarchy. For many, Mossavi's status can be likened to Ayatollah Khomeini's in 1978. Reviewing the events of the 1979 revolution gives us a clue as to what is happening in Iran in 2010. What last year's election did so successfully was to give Iranian people not only the opportunity to know Khamenehi better and to realise what kind of personality he was, but also his future vision for the nation as a whole. Perhaps this is why in 1978 people wanted to topple the regime, but today they want to change the leaders and not necessarily the whole system. Whereas Khomeini spent many years in exile in Paris and fundamentally opposed the nature of a monarchical rule, propped up for the most part by Britain's wishes to protect oil. Today, the Islamic Republic has opponents who stay in Tehran, who are loyal to the system and also wellknown by the supreme leader. What can a regime do with these types of intimate opponents? The best thing the government can do is probably just tolerate them. But tolerance or not, the proliferation of activities and efforts from groups outside Iran to the ruling system is evident. Some said that this could mean the dilution of Mossavi as the main opposition leader; but from the almost iconic status Mossavi has assumed, this seems unlikely. The anniversary of the revolution this year is apparently very different from the last. Iran is still on a precarious footing, but whereas the Shah gave away all his chances for peace, with revolution being the only bloody conclusion, now the situation is different. There is still time for both sides to come to a conclusion before bloodshed and revolution once more fills the air.
Entekhabifard is an Iranian journalist staying in New York. She contributed this article to The Egyptian Gazette.
