Many Egyptians are worried about what the future holds for their country. The revolution is only one year old and very fragile. A country of more than 80 million people has high expectations. But groups from within the country and others, from near and afar, are working hard to derail the revolution at best or halt it all together. The first group includes millions and are led by ex-Mubarak's people in politics, media, business, government, police and army. No one should underestimate their power, influence, and financial resources. They hate the word revolution and what it implies, and refer to the youth who led it as “al-‘eyeal - the boys”. They constitute the text-book counter revolution. They work underground and any victory of any kind in New Egypt is their defeat. Egyptians give this group the name “floul” – meaning “those who are left over from the old regime” – all of which who ran for the recent parliamentary election were defeated. “Floul” hope for a state of chaos, and for a military coup taking their side, freeing their leaders from prison. It is a farfetched scenario but in their view possible. The second group which also includes millions was loosely formed after the parliamentary elections and the popular victory by the Islamist parties. This group includes liberals, leftists, socialists and Nasserites. They claim that they are “the real revolutionaries” and their revolution was hijacked by others. They believe that the country would be better off if the transfer of power to a civilian authority is done immediately, not at the end of June. They are over critical of the military and do not trust that they will – as they say – step down. They escalate the confrontation with the military at the risk of having a military coup abort the revolution. Although the agenda of this group in political and economic reforms almost matches those of the Islamists, their massive loss in the elections left a bitter taste in their mouths. They never expected that the people would turn away from them in droves. They are desperate to score better in the next parliamentary elections, which they hope will be very soon, irrespective of if the revolution is derailed or not or if the country enters a long period of exhausting political instability. This group includes most of the Facebook groups. They look down at the masses that elected the Islamists claiming that their votes were cheaply bought. They blame the military for everything – from the deaths during the recent soccer match to the line ups to buy gas tanks for households who do not have access to gas lines. Dr. Amr Hamzawy, one of the leading US-educated liberals and member of parliament, devoted his formal comments during the last Thursday parliamentary session to blame the military for the recent deaths at the soccer match and call for the transfer of power to civilian presidential council. But Hamzawy – as an MP and professor of political science – failed to explain why an immediate transfer of power would prevent a similar tragedy from happening in the future. This group dominates TV talk shows and the print media. They do not trust the elected Islamist members of parliament and are on daily campaigns to smear them. They are over critical of the current government, who for only being 50 days old, have an impressive list of achievements. This group has some members of parliament and are led by the likes of Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei, who until recently was one of those who said he will run for presidency. ElBaradei, following the results of the parliamentary election, dramatically decided not to run saying “there is no real democracy in the country.” The reality was that he had no chance in hell to win, and this was confirmed beyond any doubt after the Islamist massive victory. “Real democracy” he says!? Of course ElBaradei did not say which country he considers to have “real democracy”. The world's largest democracy, India, after 60 years still could not claim to have “real democracy”, nor the world's oldest democracy, England, for that matter. The third group from within who are working to derail Egypt's revolution can be called “others”, and includes those who want to be “full-time protesters”. The majority of which are young; many are unemployed and include feminists. The first and the most aggressive external group who are working to derail Egypt's revolution is Egypt's arch enemy Israel, who is supported by the world's Zionist lobby in the West especially in the US. The second external group is the extreme right wing Western politicians who hate any good to come to Egyptians, Arabs and Muslims. This group also includes the West's 1% in politics, media, and finance who were, and still are, facing protesters in their own countries. The third external group are Arab countries who fear the influence of the Egyptian revolution on their own power base. Although rich Arab countries promised massive loans and grants to Egypt, they delivered next to nothing in the first year of the revolution. If Egypt's Revolution was a miracle to happen, a miracle to survive and a miracle to have an impressive list of achievements in its first year, I am hopeful that it will move forward despite the sabotage efforts of the above six groups. Elmasry is a professor emeritus of computer engineering, University of Waterloo. He can be reached at [email protected]
