Last Tuesday, Hashemi Rafsanjani told a group of university students in Tehran, while discussing the Arab Spring, that dictators are about to fall. “These days, people no longer accept shows of force and strength,” he said. Iranian politicians used to use this sort of ambiguous language to please their supporters or tease their opponents, depending on the circumstances in Iran. The following day, the Iranian leftist or reformist media would claim that a politician's remarks were very thoughtful, while the hard-line media would highlight whatever he said that might be beneficial for them. Such remarks might have excited the public some years ago, but not anymore, since they know that road for reforms, elections, foreign policy and internal affairs always lead to one person: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei can order a media blackout on the biggest banking scandal in modern history or stop MPs questioning President Ahmadinejad in Parliament about his performance in office. Rafsanjani's battle to stay afloat in Iran's murky political waters began six years ago when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became President, although he has managed much of the time since then to remain influential and to some extent untouchable. However, his strength within Iran's political arena began to fade significantly in the aftermath of the country's contested presidential elections in 2009, when his public criticism of Khamenei damaged his credibility and influence among Iran's hard-liners. Last time he addressed the public was two years ago after the presidential elections, at Friday prayers in Tehran; he hasn't led the Friday prayers since then. Indirectly, he took the opposition's side and that was enough for the Supreme Leader and his hard-line clerical supporters to dump him. Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, long considered one of the most powerful men in the Islamic Republic, was once betrayed by the reformists when Mohamed Khatami took office back in 1997. Traditional reformists sent for him again two years ago when they were desperate to defeat Ahmadinejad in the presidential elections. Hashemi Rafsanjani is five years older than Khamenei, who celebrated his 76th birthday last month. Although Rafsanjani is still Chairman of the Expediency Discernment Council, he is not expected to hold on to even that last bit of power for long. Rafsanjani hasn't retired from politics completely, but the decline in his public standing and concerns for his family's safety mean he can't stay in power for much longer. But it is thought that he will probably try and negotiate with the Supreme Leader for the release of the two opposition leaders, Mehdi Karobi and Mir Hussain Mossavi, who have been under house arrest since February. The crucial parliamentary elections in Iran are only five months away and the heat is on. The new Parliament will shape next year's presidential elections in Iran and the political situation even beyond that. As Ahmadinejad's rivalry with the ageing cleric Rafsanjani intensifies, it remains to be seen whether the latter's family will be compelled to leave Iran. Rafsanjani, once renowned in Iran for being a ‘dangerous' and ‘sneaky' strategist and negotiator, is now like one of the ancient Buddhas destroyed by Taliban in Afghanistan. Soon, all he'll have left will be faded memories.
Entekhabifard is an Iranian journalist, who regularly contributes to The Egyptian Gazette and its weekly edition, the Mail.
