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Collateral damage or all-out war?
Published in The Egyptian Gazette on 21 - 05 - 2018


By Ramadan A. Kader
The Middle East has started feeling the fallout from US President Donald Trump's decision to pull out of the 2015 international nuclear deal. While the decision came as no surprise, its repercussions are hard to predict. Put in the context of the scene in the Middle East and regional volatility, Trump's move will just increase tensions.
The exit from the Iran accord came weeks after the US along with allied Britain and France unleashed airstrikes against war-torn Syria over a suspected chemical attack. Significantly, London and Paris criticised Trump's move and reiterated their commitment to the Iran deal.
European economic interests are at stake as a result of Washington's ditching of the deal. The US neither suggested an alternative nor a plan B. Despite the European fears about the way ahead, it is the Middle East that is gripped by jitters.
Hardly had Trump announced his decision on May 8, when Iranian military facilities in Syria were pounded in airstrikes blamed on Israel. Israeli strikes are believed to have also hit Iranian targets and killed Iranian paramilitaries weeks earlier. Tehran vowed retaliation.
Support by Iran and its allied Lebanese Hizbollah movement has been instrumental in Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad's recent advances against rebels.
The Israeli-Iranian confrontation became more overt just two days after Trump's move. Israel carried out a barrage of missile attacks in different parts of Syria on Thursday, saying they were in response by Iranian rockets fired into Israel-occupied Golan Heights. The exchange was the worst between the two arch-foes and heralded further trouble.
Israel partially instigated Trump to nix the deal with Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently presented what he described as documents proving Iran had lied about its nuclear programme after Tehran had sealed the deal.
Israel has also expressed displeasure over Hizbollah's gains in Lebanon's May 6 legislative polls.
Last week's dueling between Iran and Israel may occur again, with Syria being the battlefield. The confrontation is unlikely to develop into an all-out war or a regional conflict as the main adversaries realise the high price in terms of casualties and finances.
Even though, each would predictably continue to flex their muscles in asserting regional supremacy.
Russia, which maintains good links with both Iran and Israel, looks bent on ensuring that none will cross the red line.
Ironically, the Arabs have opted to sit on the fence, watching the conflagration raging in their backyard.


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