CAIRO: Although global warming might not have a direct effect on the Suez Canal, it might create an Arctic water passage completely navigable to shipping, thus undermining the value of Egypt's famous waterway, Dr Mohamed Sweedan told Daily News Egypt. Should impending climatic changes eventually take their toll on the Suez Canal, Sweedan, a consultant on urban and regional planning and lecturer at the Institute of Housing and Architecture in Cairo, believes that several scenarios can be adopted when tragedy strikes. Sweedan's interest in the issue was aroused when several international magazines reported that the blocks of ice hampering navigation in the Northwest Passage were likely to melt within the coming four or five decades, turning the eyes of shipping experts worldwide to the importance of that vital waterway. Climate changes have been repeatedly discussed in Egypt, but many, "perhaps due to oversight, have failed to consider that any sea flooding endangering the Delta would also affect the Suez Canal, a water passage that generates a considerable percentage of Egypt's national income, argued the expert. For Sweedan the most important question is: How will Egypt respond if climatic change marked by a dramatic rise in the Earth's temperature results in making the Northwest Passage operational? The Passage cuts the distance between Europe and Asia by half. The Northwest Passage is a sea route through the Arctic Ocean, along the northern coast of North America via the waterways amidst the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. "The various islands of the archipelago are separated from one another and the Canadian mainland by a series of Arctic waterways collectively known as the Northwest Passages or Northwestern Passages, according to Wikipedia. "Experts say that a major change is expected to take place and we have to be prepared for all possibilities, said Sweedan. The first worrisome possibility, according to Sweedan, is the creation of "a rival water passage in the North Pole that would compete with the Suez Canal. "The second is what action should be taken if the North Pole passage becomes more accessible to Europe and more cost-effective in an age when the scarcity of oil is compelling shipping companies to opt for shorter routes, he added. He noted that the melting of icebergs in the area began 30 years ahead of expectations. A report carried by National Geographic in September 2007 said that the passage was ice-free for the first time since satellite records became available in 1978. The Canadian government considers the Northwestern Passages part of Canadian Internal Waters, but various countries, mainly the United States, the European Union and Russia maintain that they are an international strait or transit route, allowing free and unencumbered passage. Both Canada and the US are currently reinforcing their military presence in this zone. "The sovereignty question might delay the emergence of the project in years to come. But you never know how the world would react if that strait becomes the only navigable route capable of streamlining world trade. Geological experts also say that it is oil-rich and that the frosty climate is the only obstacle against drilling, said Sweedan. He explained that the rise in temperature could "reverse the future of the region by allowing oil drilling and the use of other natural resources. "And the fact that this wealth is within proximity of a water passage as such would eventually precipitate investment. We shouldn't ignore all these possibilities, said Sweedan. Environmentalists might have their own objections, but economic priorities are expected to have the upper hand. Geographical sources inform that, currently, only ships strengthened against ice could navigate the passage, and only during the warmest time of the year. The creation of the Suez and Panama Canals has long diverted attention from the Northwest Passage. Centuries before the Suez Canal was opened in 1869, caravans used land routes between Egypt and Syria on their way to Asia. Following the discovery of the Cape of Good Hope around the southern tip of the African continent and Cape Horn around the tip of South America, the caravans ceased to cross Arab lands. It was a development that dramatically destabilized the Egyptian economy and gave rein to isolation and the spread of extremism.
