ISTANBUL: Just a few years ago, Europe headed Turkey's agenda. Recep Tayyip Erdogan's newly elected government had embarked on a series of ambitious reforms to meet the European Union's political criteria for membership. At the end of 2004, the EU decided to initiate accession talks. But pro-European euphoria proved short-lived: for all practical purposes, the accession negotiations are now at an impasse. Euro-skepticism is now at an all-time high in Turkey, fueled by some European political leaders' rhetoric opposing Turkey's accession, and by the EU's own failure to dispel doubts about the feasibility of Turkey's eventual membership. Domestic support for EU accession was 70 percent at the start of the negotiations, but is now closer to 40 percent. Not surprisingly, Turkey's government has also lost its appetite for EU-related reforms. For more than two years, the European Commission has found little positive to say in its annual progress reports on political reform. Yet, just as Europe is looking more distant, the Middle East is looming larger, as Turkey shifts its attention from Brussels to Beirut and beyond. The frustrations of dealing with an undecided Europe have led Turkish policymakers to focus their efforts on an area where the expected return on their investment is more immediate and more concrete. In fact, whereas Erdogan recently visited many Middle East countries - Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Algeria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq - until this month, he had not been to Brussels since 2005. Turkey was traditionally a bystander in Middle East politics. Its leaders believed that there was little to be contributed or gained by getting involved in the region's problems, and that Turkey's Ottoman legacy would leave its Arab neighbors suspicious. But developments in recent years have enabled Turkey to become a more active player in the region, and to score several diplomatic successes. Turkey was instrumental in bringing about an end to Lebanon's factional strife, and its overtures to Syria - undertaken despite warnings from the United States - have paid off handsomely. Turkey was able not only to defuse the international tensions surrounding its Arab neighbor, but also to engineer the start of direct talks between Syria and Israel. Such activism has been even more pronounced concerning Iran, with Turkish leaders multiplying diplomatic efforts in recent months to help ease the nuclear standoff with the West. Turkey, more fearful of the regional repercussions of a nuclear Iran than of any direct threat it would pose, went as far as to host a visit by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad last August. Turkey's ability to make headway in the Middle East reflects the erosion of US legitimacy and lack of EU influence. The US lost its ability to play a more constructive role in the region following its ill-fated intervention in Iraq, while the Bush administration's neo-conservative "freedom agenda for the Arab world also backfired. While the US initially distanced itself from the more autocratic Arab leaders in a bid to support homegrown democratic alternatives, when the only realistic alternative turned out to be political Islam, America quickly returned to its traditional policy of supporting the status quo. Unlike the US, the EU's difficulties stem not from a perceived lack of legitimacy or crude attempts at promoting democracy, but from a real lack of unity and, therefore, influence. The absence of a common denominator among EU governments' positions has hardly been conducive to the emergence of the cogent and reliable diplomacy needed to address the Middle East's deep problems. In these circumstances, Turkey has been able to leverage both its regional ties and its standing in the transatlantic community to play a more instrumental role vis-à-vis its southern neighbors. Two additional factors further enhance Turkey's potential for regional influence. First, the rise of an Arab political class that is more influenced by religion than by secular nationalism has eroded the main structural barrier to Turkish engagement. The Ottoman legacy of a working state structure, tolerant of religion, has begun to be viewed in a more favorable light, and the contemporary Turkish model, with its ability to nurture a democracy-friendly Islam, is suddenly in demand. Second, Turkey has been more prepared than ever to take advantage of these fundamental shifts. Erdogan's ruling AKP traces its roots to political Islam, and many of its leaders' social networks are in Islamic countries - in stark contrast to the secular style of Turkey's previous leaders, who proudly displayed their Western identity. As a result, formal and informal links between the new Turkish political élite and the Arab world have been easier to forge. There can be no doubt that growing foreign-policy activism, especially in relation to the Middle East, has begun to enhance Turkey's role and influence in its own region. Indeed, Turkey is now firmly set to become a regional power, with its recent election to the UN Security Council a further testimony to its diplomatic prowess. But does Turkey's shift of focus southward and toward regional power status come at the expense of the country's EU ambitions? For optimists, Turkey's growing regional influence enhances its value for the EU. But this assumes that Europe is willing and able to benefit from what Turkey has to offer. In other words, this strategy is compatible with EU accession only if the EU strengthens its own capacity for concerted action on foreign policy. In that case, Turkey's membership would not, as European federalists argue, lead to a weaker Europe. On the contrary, it would make Europe a more influential and capable world power. Sinan Ülgenis Chairman of the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM) in Istanbul. This commentary is based on an article that will appear in the Spring 2009 issue of Europe's World, and was prepared to coincide with a debate on January 19 in Brussels on "Turkey's European Future, organized by Friends of Europe, Europe s World, and the Security & Defence Agenda (SDA) and featuring Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoðan. This commentary is published by DAILY NEWS EGYPT in collaboration with Project Syndicate/Europe's World (www.project-syndicate.org, www.europesworld.org).
