Turkey secures date for EU talks but stormy waters lie ahead, reports Gareth Jenkins from Istanbul On Friday the European Union finally granted Turkey a date for the opening of accession negotiations, but the process is likely to be long and problematic with no guarantee of eventual membership. Perhaps more critically, the Justice and Development Party government no longer has an excuse to avoid confronting a series of potentially incendiary domestic issues it had put on hold pending receiving the date from the EU. Last Friday the EU gave the green light to the most ambitious enlargement in its history when it finally set a date for the beginning of accession negotiations with Turkey in a move which, if successful, will not only make Turkey the first Muslim member of the world's largest trading bloc but extend the EU's border into the Middle East for the first time. The announcement came at the end of two days of often tense negotiations at an EU summit in Brussels as Turkish and the EU leaders haggled over the terms on which they will open talks on 3 October 2005. The main stumbling block was Ankara's continuing refusal to grant official recognition to the government of the Republic of Cyprus, which joined the EU on 1 May this year after the failure of a UN-backed plan to reunite the island, which has been divided since 1974. Ankara maintains that the Republic of Cyprus government only represents the Greek Cypriot community. Turkey is the only country in the world to recognise the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in the north of the island. The EU argued that Turkey could not expect to open accession negotiations until it recognised all 25 EU members. In the end, a compromise was reached under which the Turkish delegation, led by Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, promised that by 3 October 2005 it would officially acknowledge the Republic of Cyprus government without extending it full diplomatic or political recognition. Erdogan returned to Turkey to a hero's welcome, feted by the Turkish media and greeted at Istanbul airport by thousands of members of his Justice and Development Party (JDP) carrying banners proclaiming him "The Conqueror of Europe". But, even as they basked in the euphoria, Turkish officials admitted that not only had getting a date been much harder than they had anticipated but that the most difficult part of the process still lies ahead. "I can't say that we got 100 per cent of what we wanted. But we were successful," said Erdogan. Even the most optimistic of observers expect the accession negotiations to take 10-15 years and EU leaders made it clear last week that they could not guarantee that the talks will end in full membership. Nor is it just a question of Turkey fulfilling all the political criteria for accession. Public opinion in the EU remains overwhelmingly opposed to Turkey becoming a member. Per capita income in Turkey is only a quarter of the EU average. Many Europeans fear that Turkey will drain the EU's budget and flood its job markets with cheap labour. While others are simply racially and religiously prejudiced against the Turks. France and Austria are already insisting that Turkish membership be put to referenda; and no one doubts that, if they were held today, Turkey would be rejected. For Ankara, the Brussels summit was also an unpleasant reminder that full membership is still dependent on a solution to the Cyprus problem. Most Turks had assumed that their support earlier this year for the UN plan to reunite the island -- coupled with the Greek Cypriot rejection of it -- would ensure that Cyprus was no longer an obstacle to accession. Such hopes evaporated in Brussels. Although Erdogan and the JDP insist that acknowledging the existence of the Republic of Cyprus government is not the same as recognising it, ultranationalists in Turkey do not agree; and Erdogan can expect furious public protests next summer when Turkey is expected officially to acknowledge the Republic of Cyprus government. Even without a nationalist backlash over Cyprus, the JDP was already facing a difficult time in 2005. Since it took power in November 2002, the JDP has indexed its entire political agenda to getting a date for the opening of accession negotiations. It has also presided over two years of strong economic growth, driven primarily by investor hopes of political stability and the rebound from a devastating recession in 2001 when the economy shrank by more than 9 per cent. However, in recent months there have been signs that the economic growth is now slowing. Few expect another recession but even in the boom years of 2003 and the first half of 2004 the economy still was not producing enough jobs for the one million young people joining the labour force each year. In 2005 Erdogan is also likely to come under increased pressure to deliver on political expectations. Although the JDP has a broad electoral base its grassroots support remains the deeply pious urban and rural poor. Over the last two years many JDP supporters have become increasingly disillusioned by Erdogan's authoritarian management style and his failure to soften some of the more draconian aspects of the Turkish interpretation of secularism, such as the restrictions on religious schools and the ban of women wearing headscarves in state institutions, which effectively prevents millions of young girls from attending university. But they were reluctant to pressure Erdogan, partly for fear that any internal unrest would jeopardise Turkey's chances of receiving a date in Brussels and partly because there was no viable alternative to the JDP on the political right. But in recent months the True Path Party (TPP), now led by the ultranationalist Mehmet Agar, has begun to emerge as a rival to the JDP. Although it is still not strong enough to challenge the JDP's grip on power, the TPP is at least threatening to erode the government's substantial parliamentary majority. Now that the date for the opening of EU accession negotiations has been secured, Erdogan is likely to find that the Islamists within the JDP are finally running out of patience. Yet any attempt to erode secularism will trigger a reaction from the ever watchful Turkish military. While if Turkey is going to make any progress in the accession negotiations it still has to implement a daunting range of reforms on human and minority rights and freedom of expression, which will both trigger domestic protests and play into the hands of the nationalists already buoyed by Erdogan's commitment over Cyprus. With little prospect of Turkey joining the EU soon, and maybe not at all, Turks are still keeping their fingers crossed in the hope of inching closer to Europe.
