Barely had the Lebanese started to recover from the July-August war between Hezbollah and Israel when instability came knocking again, in what seems like the beginning of a campaign to intimidate Lebanon and prevent its government from taking serious political decisions. The assassination of Christian minister and parliamentarian Pierre Gemayel came on the day that the United Nations Security Council was scheduled to approve the final by-laws of a mixed Lebanese-international tribunal to hold accountable the assassins of the late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Gemayel was one of the young leaders of the anti-Syria March 14 coalition and a key minister in the Seniora government, and his death dealt a strong blow to the slim government majority that is badly needed to ratify the by-laws. It is likely that more assassinations will come to undermine the final phases of the tribunal process. As the deadline approached to approve the final draft of the tribunal by-laws, attempts to obstruct it multiplied. Prior to Gemayel s assassination, Lebanese politics were already stalemated by a showdown between the governing majority of March 14 and the opposition led by Hezbollah. At stake are critical and decisive issues that will determine the weight of each political actor in the months to come. These include, in addition to the tribunal, expanding the government and giving the opposition a blocking minority vote, presidential elections and early legislative elections. The passing of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 last August provided a useful framework to deal with security issues in South Lebanon. Three months later, the front there seems to have quieted down; a fait accompli of stability appears to be emerging, one that could be jeopardized only by Israel s continued violations of the provisions of the UN resolution. Hezbollah s attention is now focused on internal Lebanese politics, particularly on finding ways to force an increase in its share in government and protect its political gains. As the government drew closer to voting on the draft by-laws of the tribunal, five Shiite ministers and a sixth minister close to President Emile Lahoud walked out in an effort to strip the government of its legitimacy ahead of a special session to approve the final draft of the by-laws. While it was widely believed that Hezbollah and its allies in the Amal movement walked out for reasons related to the tribunal, in reality Hezbollah was also preparing itself for the departure in a year s time of Lahoud ? a fierce ally of the party ? and the election of a new head of the country closer in orientation to March 14. With the southern front frozen for now, Hezbollah s spheres of influence in the Lebanese system will gradually be chipped away if they lose the presidency without securing a minority blocking vote in government. Hence, by making this strong statement opposing what it perceives as the majority s unilateral decision-making, Hezbollah positioned itself better, looking toward the time when agreement is needed on the election of a new president. Street demonstrations, drawn-out strikes and a carefully thought out campaign of civil disobedience were expected to be launched and to catch the government by surprise to force its resignation. Now the Gemayel assassination has reshuffled the cards. The opposition will find it difficult to carry on with threats of mass demonstrations and sit-ins and force the government s resignation. The March 14 coalition has regainedthe initiative and the moral high ground. It will resist for now the demands of the opposition and seek a negotiated exit out of the current stalemate, while guaranteeing the passage of the tribunal and possibly a commitment to early presidential elections. In the weeks to come, we might see a softening of Hezbollah s position onthe tribunal in an effort to defray mounting criticism after the assassination, but also to secure some gains in return. With opposition to the tribunal seen as a Shiite defense of Syrian interests against a largely Sunni demand, Hezbollah can only do so much to resist. It has been hesitant to take to the streets and paralyze the country after repeatedthreats to do so. While the assassination of Gemayel has allowed the March 14 movement to regain the initiative, it has also taken the pressure off Hezbollah from having to mobilize its supporters to delay and potentially obstruct the tribunal - to which it had pledged its support in the past. This could usher in serious negotiations over a way out of the current crisis, lest sectarian tensions and the Sunni-Shiite political divide spiral out of control. A negotiated exit from the crisis would rearrange the political balance of power in Lebanon and allow major political actors to reposition themselves, giving March 14 a much-needed win while accommodating the opposition. Prior to doing this, however, the deep-seated mistrust that characterizes relations between the government and the opposition will have to be dealt with through measured, incremental trade-offs, beginning with the international tribunal and extending to government expansion and the presidential elections. At a time of national mourning, the crisis is now ripe for resolution. Oussama Safa is director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies in Beirut. These are his personal views. This commentary was published at bitterlemons-international.org, an online newsletter.
