CAIRO: To many casual observers, the relationship between Egypt and the United States looks decidedly uneven; on the one hand is the leading nation in pan-Arab nationalism trying to shrug off its authoritarian Third World label, whilst on the other is the world’s only superpower and the champion of democracy. Yet, to readily dismiss this imbalance would betray the strategic importance it has served the alliance for almost four decades. Egypt’s vital role as a moderate voice in a region that is often hostile and suspicious of American motives is indispensable to the White House. In return, Egypt receives preferential treatments on the world stage as well as generous economic assistance. It is an arrangement which has served both countries well since the days of the Sadat-Carter era. As a gateway to not just the Middle East but also the rest of Africa, Egypt is strategically placed both geographically and politically through its memberships of the Arab League and the African Union. During the Cold War, the Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev enjoyed very warm relationships with Colonel Gamal Abdel Nasser – Egypt’s anti-colonial president and figurehead for the pan-Arab movement. Many of his neighbors followed Nasser’s lead by adopting closer ties with the Soviet Union through buying weapons, land reforms and forging diplomatic relations. The White House therefore recognized this vast North African nation’s influence and standing in the Arab World which in turn would be a useful asset in its Middle Eastern policy, as Margaret White, spokesperson for the US Embassy in Cairo, explains: “the United States and Egypt have shared the common goal of strengthening peace and mutual understanding in the region and we have stood together through many challenges.†And there is no bigger or more protracted challenge than the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It would be fair to suggest that this is the third ‘silent’ component behind the Egypt-US partnership. Never straightforward, and often problematic – Egypt thrives on its role as mediator, conduit, messenger and host to numerous summits and private meetings between the two warring sides. It is not a role without risks either; Egypt would often infuriate Israel and American with its stance, as its own population and Arab neighbors look on with suspicion and dismay. To say the Egyptians are caught between a rock and a hard-place is something of an understatement. But that is a role that Egypt has carved out successfully with pride for over 30 years. It wants to seen as the leading nation in the Arab world, and if that’s the price they have to pay for it, then so be it. Indeed, it was Egypt’s recognition of Israel back in mid-1970s that marked the beginning of this close transatlantic partnership. Egypt had just triumphantly reclaimed the Sinai peninsular following the Yom Kippur War with the Jewish state, and this fledgling alliance with the White House scaled new heights with the historic Camp David Agreement in 1978. It reached its peak during the first Gulf War in 1990 when Egypt threw its weight behind the American-led Operation Desert Storm in ousting Saddam Hussein from Kuwait. This crucial period also saw the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, thus leaving America as the undisputed superpower. More importantly, it also witnessed the Oslo Accords in which Egypt acted as one of the main brokers between Israel and the P.L.O., which not only increased President Mubarak’s international standing, but further cemented the relationship between Cairo and Washington. It was enhanced further by Egypt’s role in persuading Saddam Hussein to let in UN weapons inspectors in 1998 in face of renewed threats of air strikes by the Americans. Indeed, the 1990s was a long decade of shared objectives between the two nations. With Bill Clinton in the White House, this was arguably the warmest period between the two since the Carter years, and the Egyptians certainly proved their worth as a broker to countless Israel-Palestinian negotiations between 1992 and 2000 – one with ever-diminishing returns as the decade wore on, it has to be said. And things really began to go downhill towards the end of the Clinton presidency. An innocuous plane crash – Egyptair Flight 990’s accident in the Atlantic shorting after taking off from New York – almost escalated into a full-blown diplomatic row between the two nations. The Egyptian authorities were appalled by the National Transportation Safety Board’s initial suggestion and subsequent conclusions that the Egyptian pilot had committed suicide by deliberately crashing the jetliner, killing 217 people. The situation deteriorated further with the second intifada in the Palestinian territories in late 2000. Egypt heavily criticized Israel’s violent response amidst the mounting chaos, and this put an enormous strain on the alliance. Worse was still to come in the first decade of the 21st century, as the relationship reached its lowest ebb thanks to George W Bush’s election, the September 11th attacks and the subsequent wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Mubarak was no fan of Saddam Hussein, but even he would have had mixed feelings about the manner in which the Iraqi dictator was toppled and executed. It is of no incidence that Egypt has traditionally enjoyed better relationships with the Democrats than Republican presidents. Still, many commentators were surprised by just how bad the situation became during the Bush Jr-Mubarak era. Dina Shehata of Cairo’s Al Ahram Center described this period as “the lowest since the Carter years” and cited Bush’s “confrontational” style towards authoritarian regimes as the main factor behind their failure to see eye-to-eye. Shehata added that Bush’s moralistic approach meant that he had a particular distaste for regimes like Egypt’s. Issues which had hitherto been brushed under the carpet like democratic reforms, opposition voices, human rights, police torture, freedom of the press resurfaced. All the while, Egypt’s discomfort with the religious undertone of the Bush administration’s rhetoric to the war on terror became more pronounced, whilst the Israeli-Palestinian conflict plodded along at pedestrian pace. All the while, through the good and bad times was the continuous channeling of economic and military aid into Egypt from America, which had restarted after the 1973 War. Over time, the North African nation would gradually move away from a being centrally-controlled agrarian economy to free-market. The transition was difficult, however, and reforms were badly needed. Clinton had initially proposed a reduction in aid in exchange for increased U.S. investments across a range of industries, as well as negotiations for free-trade between the two powers. Mubarak agreed to the initiative, only to have the door shut by Bush who not only imposed strict economic and political conditions upon the negotiations, but halved the aid as had previously agreed by Clinton and Mubarak. At the same time, the promise of increased investments failed to materialize, with the majority again going into the traditional oil and gas sectors. Coupled with a hostile attitude towards America across the Islamic world over the violence in Iraq and Afghanistan, it was no wonder that Mubarak stopped visiting the White House on a annual basis. He, in return, made lots of negative public statements on President Bush, and the relationship between Cairo and Washington reached a critical stage. Under President Barack Obama, many now expect a return to “conventional” politics, restoring the warm relations they had enjoyed before the Bush years. It is telling that Obama used Cairo as the platform to call for a new beginning between the United States and Muslims around the world – one based on mutual interest and mutual respect. High on the agenda is, and as always, Israel-Palestine. They both support Fatah, the political-wing of the Palestinian authorities based in the West Bank, whilst Egypt is forced to deal with Hamas due to their shared border along the Gaza Strip. Likewise, Iraq will continue to feature in any discussions. Egypt has re-opened its embassy in Baghdad, and according to the US Embassy in Cairo, “Egypt’s increased diplomatic, economic, social, cultural and security engagement with the people of Iraq is essential to our shared goal of an Iraq that is sovereign, stable, and self-reliant.” Iran would also figure prominently in the next few years as Egypt and its allies in the region battle to contain the encroaching influence and military threats posed by the Islamic Republic. Many agree that Egypt will be on America’s side when it comes to dealing with Iran. Sudan could prove problematic, however. America and Egypt have never been on the same page when it comes to dealing with Khartoum. With Egypt counting Sudan as one of its closest allies, we can expect disagreements with the White House over the indictment on war crimes against its president Omar al-Bashir. Another rival for America to deal with is the ever-increasing presence of Chinese investments in the Suez zone, which extends down to numerous parts of Africa. Domestically, Egypt will continue to push for free trade with America, but that could fall on deaf ears as America struggles to deal with the aftermath of the economic crisis – its exports to Egypt fell by $750m in 2009 alone. But that is not to say that it is all bad on the economic front. There are a number behind-the-scene initiatives aimed at improving economic ties – even if they do not necessarily have an impact on what really matters: those crucial imports and exports data. For example, the American embassy in Cairo recently launched the Business Visa Program whereby certain Egyptian companies and their employees can now apply for business visas without having to make an appointment with the embassy. This, according to the embassy’s spokesperson, is aimed at “expediating business travel between Egypt and the United States.” Likewise, there is the Community College Initiative Program which helps to fund nearly 1,000 young Egyptians to develop professional and leadership skills and at U.S. community colleges. In addition, the Global Technology and Innovation Fund aims to promote access to and growth of technology in the Middle East through private funding. Lastly, Obama will be hosting a summit on entrepreneurship with businessmen and leaders from Egypt and other Muslim communities in April. This will act a curtain-raiser to the MENA Power 2010: A Middle East and North Africa Technology and Projects Forum that will take place in May in Cairo. Away from economic matters, the two countries are forging much closer cultural ties, with many more exchange students going in either direction than at any other time. Last year, more than 1900 Egyptians were enrolled at American universities – an 8.4 percent jump on 2008. Meanwhile, there was a 33 percent increase in the number of students coming to study in Egypt from the States. In fact, Egypt is the first choice for all Americans wanting to study Arabic abroad – and this may have something to do with the recent Gallup poll which shows a 58 percent approval-rate amongst the American public towards Egypt. In terms of migration, the number of Egyptians applying for US visas increased by 10 percent from between 2008 and 2009, and successful applicants also rose by 10 percent over the same period. In addition, the number of places allocated to the annual diversity visa lottery program was almost full last year for Egypt – meaning a huge of number of people are now eligible to emigrate to the US, and to our earlier notion that Egypt some receives preferential treatment from the Americans. In conclusion, as the alliance enters its fourth decade, there is no reason to suggest it is going to falter any time soon. Yes, there have been a few rocky patches along the way, but academics and political observers cannot imagine any drastic changes to the status quo, regardless of what Mubarak does next year. The next Egyptian president – whoever that is – will very much be an insider, and will not present a major break from the past. Besides, if Washington is willing to reach out to long time foes like Syria and even Iran, then Egypt’s position looks pretty secure. That is not to say that it is all rosy, however. Beneath the surface, anti-American sentiment is rife amongst the restless Egyptian population and America needs to win over their hearts and minds in order to maintain the good relationship for another 50 years. The trouble is, the damage inflicted by President Bush in the space of eight years could take even longer to repair. BM
