SANA'A: If western diplomats and Yemeni politicians are still willing to play “politics”, other factions are preparing for war. 10 days after an historic, yet controversial, signature in Riyadh, the Saudi Arabian capital, of a brokered GCC power- transfer deal which was meant to put an end to Ali Abdullah Saleh's rule over Yemen, nothing seems to have changed. According to the implementation mechanisms, which were debated and negotiated at length by the regime as Saleh wanted to make sure that no “dishonorable” party would try to interpret the initiative, a Military Committee and a coalition government should have been created by now. Instead Yemenis are left in a state of limbo wondering whether Saleh is still acting president, president in the shadow or on-the-way to the door president. Presidential Powers Although Vice-President Abdu Rabbo Mansoor Hadi is officially the country new acting president until presidential election are held on February 23rd 2012, he has been accused of solely relying on Saleh for all his decision-making, remaining a shadowy figure on Yemen's political scene. Close aides and former advisers to Saleh also revealed that the autocrat was in the habit of calling on ministers, making comments on their policies and ordering them to follow his instructions. To make matters worse Salah announced last week that he was granting a presidential pardon to all those who committed “acts of idiocy”, warning in the same sentence that those responsible for bombing his compound would be punished according to the full force of the law. Hoorayya Mashoor, the spokeswoman for the National Yemeni Council for the Revolution, immediately condemned the move saying that Saleh was in direct breach of the GCC agreement, arguing that he had no longer the powers required to make such a statement. But even if Saleh was indeed willing to wither away, his close family members, more particularly, his son, Ahmed Saleh and nephews, Ammar Mohamed Saleh and Yehia Mohamed Saleh might have a hard time doing so. In astute statesman, Saleh very early on in his career made sure to distribute strategic positions to his most trusted family members, conscious that a time would come he would have to defend his legacy. According to military sources, the Saleh would be in control of 60 percent of the country's army with access to heavy weaponry and warplanes. Military Committee According to the power-transfer deal, VP Hadi should have by now set up a Military Committee in which would sit, equally represented, members of the opposition and the regime. The idea behind the move is to ensure that all key military posts previously occupied by Saleh's relatives would be redistributed and powers reshuffled, turning Yemen's army into a neutral entity which loyalty would be to the nation and not a family. Sources both in the opposition and the presidential palace revealed that a list of names had already been presented to Saleh but that out of 7 he had rejected 5 nominees. One could wonder why the list was presented to the president in the first place since he is not supposed to have a say on the matter, never mind agreeing on whom the opposition chose to represent them. Added to that rumor that Ahmed Saleh is set to be the next appointed Defense Minister and Yemen is on point for another mighty popular uprising which this time around might be less than peaceful. Although many within Yemen are viewing Ahmed Saleh favorably, it is his family members who people will oppose as they are associated with corruption, repression and all around thievery. Victim of his father's legacy, Ahmed might never get the chance of proving his qualities to a nation which already branded him a liar. The UNSC The United Nations Security Council only recently issued a warning to Yemen's regime saying it was closely monitoring any developments and was condemning the new bout of violence in the southern town of Taiz as it waa breach of the agreement. Special UN envoy to Yemen Jamal Benomar is due to return to Sana'a on December 10th to review the agreement's implementation on the ground and issue his report back to New York. However, deterrent such as assets freeze and travel ban seem to have little weight in the matter since the regime is still cracking down on the revolution accusing “unknown armed groups” and “foreign hands” of plotting against the nation. The Opposition The opposition, which so far has only managed to anger the nation as revolutionaries felt betrayed by the political class when it agreed to a GCC proposal, which was granting Saleh, his family and aides immunity, is reaching the end of the road if a transition does not indeed occur. The risk essentially lies now with the tribes and dissident troops as much in on the line for them. Regular Yemenis might still want to pursue their dream of a new Yemen by demonstrating peacefully but al-Ahmar and Saleh will soon come to a clash. Yemen knows that the two could never co-exist peacefully as too much bad blood is lying in between. As both families are in pursuit of powers, both equally powerful and rich, one will have to bow down to the other. Sources on both sides, the regime and the opposition, have confirmed that al-Ahmar and Saleh were preparing for the eventuality of war with more men being recruited, more barricades being built and more military equipment being shipped in. BM
