CAIRO: If we analyze the “revolution of 25th of January,” which caused the collapse of former President Hosni Mubarak's regime, it is not difficult to find some similarities with the 1979 Iranian revolution. In the Egyptian case the “last Pharaoh” has been overthrown, whereas in the so-called “Islamic revolution” of 1979, the Shah was overthrown. Both leaders were charged of corruption and both leaders had strong relationships with western countries, most notably the United States. In both countries, revolution was the result of the rage of the masses; the young people calling for social justice. In both countries media were used to support the protest: the Internet and social networks in the case of the Egyptian “awakening,” tapes with speeches of Ayatollah Khomeini, recorded during his exile in Paris, in the case of Iran. In April of 1979, Iran officially became an Islamic Republic. Despite both nationalists and Marxists having joined with Islamic traditionalists to overthrow the Shah, thousands were executed by the Islamic regime afterward. The revolution ultimately resulted in an Islamic Republic under Ayatollah Khomeini, and the majority of Iranians who fought in the name of social justice, ended up with a regime that was not what they wanted before the uprising. Could a similar situation repeat in Egypt? The youth revolution of 25 January could end up supporting radical Islamic forces' government plans. In order to avoid a new Iranian revolution, Egyptians should promulgate a new Constitution before Parliamentary and Presidential elections. All the current political forces and movements recognize that Egypt currently needs a new Parliament, President and Constitution. But there is no agreement on the sequence to pursue such purposes. The Supreme Military Council already modified the Constitution promoting 9 amendments through a referendum in March. But that is not enough, especially if we consider that Parliamentary and Presidential elections have been confirmed for next September and December, respectively. It seems that in the Supreme Council's view, the Constitution's modifications introduced are enough to guarantee freedom and Democracy so that new Constitutional amendments will be introduced after next elections. While the Muslim Brotherhood seems to approve such plan, other political parties, such as the new liberal and social democratic movements, back a different sequence of operations instead. Such parties call for a new Constitution that would make clear which powers will be held by Parliament and the President after the next elections. This is the only way to avoid the sequence of political operations set up by the Supreme Council, which would bring the next political winner to hold too much power, with consequent risks for democracy and freedom. Therefore, it is absolutely necessary that a new fundamental law is approved by national referendum. Such a Constitution should be set up not by the Supreme Military Council, but by an assembly, which would ensure all the principles, values and purposes for which Egyptians took part to the January uprising, posing their lives at great risk and in some cases paying for it by death. This is probably the only way to avoid a Iranian-style deja-vu. BM
