The emergence of ElBaradei gives the United States a chance to improve its dismal track record in its foreign policy in Egypt and the Middle East, and change its past habit of being unable to see beyond its short-term interests. In the years since the revolution of 1952, the United States has made less than stellar choices when it comes to Egypt. Its paranoia about the rising influence of the Soviet Union led it to encourage Sadat to allow the Muslim Brotherhood to operate more freely as a counterpoint to the Communists. That turned out badly for both Sadat and, in the long run, the United States. Since then, the U.S. has turned a blind eye to the abuses of the Mubarak regime and supported him, seemingly unconditionally–although, admittedly, U.S. officials are likely more critical of Mubarak when they meet with him behind closed doors than they are in public. Nevertheless, Egypt’s record on human rights is abysmal and, for the most part, the United States’ criticisms in that arena have been anemic at best. The various U.S. administrations have been acting out of understandable fear, but their decisions have been wrongheaded. Focusing on the Communist threat during the Cold War era led them to overlook the arguably greater threat of radical Islam. And then we had the presidency of George W. Bush, whose push to thrust American-style democracy upon the Middle East led to a Hamas victory in the Palestinian territories. Given the Muslim Brotherhood’s 2005 showing in Egyptian parliamentary elections, it’s small wonder American officials have said little about open elections in Egypt. Here, though, with the arrival of ElBaradei on the scene, is an opportunity– one I hope the Obama administration will have the clarity to recognize and act upon. It’s not the prospect of ElBaradei as president that is so alluring, despite his credibility in the West, rather his ability to represent something bigger than himself. If we are to take him at his word, ElBaradei’s primary goal is not to ascend to power himself, but to provoke constitutional reforms that would open up Egyptian society and politically empower its people. Up until now, the Mubarak regime has been able to quash emerging opposition, with the Americans apparently quite content to ignore blatant human rights violations so they can continue supporting one of their most important allies in the region. That meant that the only viable game in town, aside from the National Democratic Party, was the Muslim Brotherhood, whose potential ascendance left the United Sates feeling less than thrilled. The big tent of the National Association for Change, though, gives Egypt an unprecedented opportunity to move towards pluralism, and ElBaradei’s global profile gives the United States a compelling excuse to challenge the current regime’s repressive ways. ElBaradei’s presence in Egypt and his impossible-to-ignore calls for systemic reforms that would benefit all of the country’s political movements leaves the United States with only two clear choices. It can continue its path of willful ignorance and support of a regime that is already nearing the final days of its shelf life, or it can use ElBaradei’s calls for reform as an opportunity to press the Egyptian government to make meaningful changes. Regardless of the United State’s choice, it’s too late to turn back. As so many long-stifled populaces have shown us, once the spark of self-determination is ignited, those pro-democracy flames are difficult to extinguish. Hopefully the United States will recognize that and come out forcefully at the highest levels of government in support of the NAC and its goals because, in the end, that is the only viable option. If it doesn’t, both Egyptians and American interests in the Middle East will suffer. In the long run, though, the change that has begun will not be stopped. BM
