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The Egyptian Revolution Cornered Iran
Published in Almasry Alyoum on 08 - 04 - 2011

The revolutions in the Middle East were about freedom not about creating Islamic States as the Iranian regime declared after the Egyptian revolution. They received a prompt answer even from the Muslim Brotherhood group that the revolution is people's one and it is about creating a civil state. Some Sunni groups further discussed that Islam does not give scholars the right to rule in the name of the religion.
In fact this is one of the differences between Sunni Islam and the Shiites who believe that their superior guide represents the absent Imam and rules in the name of God. They cannot impeach him and no one can try him for any cause. When the Iranian opposition asked for a permission to arrange demonstration to praise the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions the regime refused for two reasons. The first was the negative response by Egyptian revolutionaries that Sunni Islam does not know the religious state. Second the Iranian regime itself has many problems with the opposition after the rigged elections that extended the period of Mahmood Ahmadi Nejad for a second term.
When the Libyan revolution erupted and was transformed in a civil war between the incumbent leader Qazzafi's forces and the repellants the Iranian regime sided with the repellents. From day one in the Yemeni civil war between the government and Houthis Iran armed the Houthis to topple the incumbent resident and to create a Shiite state. When the war stopped and the Southern wanted independence and others wanted liberalism Iran still supported the removal of the Yemeni government.
However in Bahrain the Iranian viewed the revolution there as a sectarian struggle by the Shiite majority against the Sunni minority who rule the country. When the Saudis and the Emiratis sent forces to support the Bahraini government the Iranian regime considered this an invasion. Even Syria the closet ally to Iran in the Middle East supported the Bahraini government. The game was about to be open between the Saudi Arabia and Iran. When Syrian people revolted against the Baath rule that is Alawiite (a Shiite sector), Iranian media blacked out the news. Even it told about the riots supporting of the regime ignoring totally other anti-regime riots.
It is clear that Iran used the riots in the Middle East to support the higher causes of its regional agenda of reaching the Mediterranean through Lebanon and controlling the Gulf. Iran tries to play the card of the Shiites in the Gulf States including Saudi Arabia to create instability so that it could press or even divide the Arabian Peninsula to form new states. However the Gulf countries accuse Iran frankly of interference in their internal policies and violating their sovereignty.
The open game between the Saudis and the Iranians in Syria and Lebanon will determine the shape of the Middle East. Toppling the Syrian regime will drastically affect Iranian steps and it would lose Hezbo-Allah and Hamas factions, its other allies in the region. While turning the game in Syria to another civil war will create an area of instability from Basra in Iraq to Southern Lebanon in on the Mediterranean on the Northern borders of Israel. This may give an unprecedented chance for the Kurds to declare their state dragging both Turkey and Iran into open military game.
To achieve its goals in the Gulf during all these uncertainties Cairo will emerge as a pivotal player. After the revolution Cairo expressed its willingness to improve relations with Iran. The revolutionaries in Tahrir square support their brothers in Syria and want the cruel Baath regime to leave. At the same time they support people in Yemen and Bahrain against the regimes there.
If it is true that the Arab Monarchs press on the Egyptian government not to try Mubarak it will be the grave mistake of these Monarchs as there will be a confrontation between the Arab Gulf and the Egyptian people who know that their government should express their interests. This will polarize Egyptians around their interests opening a window for Egyptian-Iranian relation to improve if the two countries reach a formula that preserve their interests without interference in internal affairs especially the religious ones.
If Arab Monarchs kept good relations with Egypt, the greatest Arab-phone country will support these monarchs to contain the internal troubles. After the revolution Cairo started talks with Syria and other Arabs. Art the same time it sent signals to Iran. It started new chapter of cooperation with Turkey. The Egyptian are tolerant to other faiths and many became fed up with the Arabism and the Arab League that gathered dictators but never united the region to be an economic giant although all means are present to be.
Iran needs more openness to have a role in the region and not to be dragged in unnecessary wars. The Iranians should rethink the slogan of the rioters in Tehran when they said, ‘no for Gaza, no for Lebanon, we sacrifice our souls for Iran only.'
The Gulf States should know that changes are necessary and they should find ways to create constitutional monarchs if Royal families want to continue. They should not play games that beyond their capacities and capabilities. The Syrian regime should think about dignified stepping down as Iran will not go into civil wars with Kurds if it insists to repeat the Libyan trial. The Egyptian revolution just changed the map in the Middle East but lines are being drawn. Not only Iran but Israel should also think about that but this is another story.


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