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The businessman, the general and the outsider
Published in Almasry Alyoum on 30 - 10 - 2009

Ahead of the annual ruling National Democratic Party's congress, Egyptian press has been largely dominated by the ever lasting question of presidential inheritance.
Old themes and names re-floated on the surface partially ignited by veteran journalist Mohamed Hassanein Heikal's call for the establishment of “The Trustees of State and Constitution,” a political body he envisioned to assume the responsibility for drafting a new democratic constitution for Egypt in a transitional period of three years.
In an interview with the Al-Masry Al-Youm Arabic Edition, Heikal suggested that the 12-member body be composed of Secretary-General of the Arab League Amr Moussa, Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency Mohammed el-Baradei, along with handful other prominent public figures who are all not members in any political party.
To shield his proposal with an element of political realism, Heikal, who stridently opposes the possibility of grooming the president's son-Gamal-to Egypt's top executive post, proposed that President Hosni Mubarak himself to supervise the outlined provisional period with the aide of both the military and the intelligence.
Heikal's blatant call was welcomed by some opposition voices, while utterly dismissed by leading members of the NDP.
Ibraim Eissa, chief editor of the independent daily el-Dostour, rendered the NDP's argument that nominating public figures to run for presidency is a “scheme by independent and opposition papers to increase circulation,” as baseless.
Eissa referred to the mushrooming of groups established on social networking sites, such as Facebook, to promote candidates such as Baradei and the Director of Egyptian Intelligence General Omar Suleiman for presidency, as an evidence of the public's inspiration for these figures.
Safwat el-Sharif, the Sectretary-General of the NDP and Shura Council's Speaker, forcefully rejected attempts to engage the Egyptian army with the 2011 presidential elections.
In an interview with the weekly state-run Al Mussawar magazine, el Sharif warned against “any reference to the Egyptian military forces because it is the shield of the nation and the protector of its security and stability.” The veteran politician added that “the military forces are keen not to be implicated in political struggles.”
Minister of Legal and Parliamentary Affairs Mufeed Shihab described the idea of independent figures such as Moussa and Bradaei running for presidency as “unrealistic. The constitution is clear about the selection criteria of presidential candidates,” Shiab was quoted by the state-controlled daily Al-Ahram.
According to Article 76 of the Egyptian constitution, a presidential candidate must be a high ranking member of a political party which has at least one seat in the parliament.
Independent candidates must receive the endorsement of 250 elected members of Egypt's representative bodies, a condition that not a single party including the Muslim Brotherhood enjoys.
Some independent and opposition voices were also skeptical of the idea of campaigning around an independent figure to compete against the NDP's candidate in the presidential elections.
Tarik el-Bishry, a prominent Egyptian judge and historian, believed that all opposition forces, including the Muslim Brotherhood, lack the strong grass-root bases which he deemed necessary for exerting enough pressure on ruling elites to allow for a plural constitutional and democratic process.
“The balance of power in the society is not in favor of the opposition,” said Bishry in an interview with the independent daily el-Shorouk.
He called for all opposition forces to concentrate instead on demanding the abolition of the Emergency Law, which has been in force since 1981 and a comprehensive judicial supervision on all stages of the electoral process.
Bishry, nevertheless, thought that the scenario of presidential inheritance, is not inevitable.
“Throughout its history, Egypt has never been ruled by anyone who wasn't a state's bureaucrat, and I am here differentiating between the realm of ‘presidency and government' and all administrative apparatuses of the state,” explains Bishry.
Bishry's rather vague remarks reveal the underlying rationale behind many anti-Gamal campaigns. For those opponents, Gamal lacks the essential characteristics to be qualified for presidency. As a civilian, he was never trained in the military-the laboratory of patriotism, firmness and discipline.
And although a leading member in the NDP, Mubarak junior has been widely perceived as inexperienced of the complex dynamisms of the highly centralized and bureaucratic post-colonial Egyptian state.
Finally, as a proponent of neo-liberalism, Gamal's possible presidency is viewed as threatening the social fabric of the country where nearly half of the population lives around or below the poverty line.


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