The threat that IS poses to the Gulf states is about as existential as it gets. All of the ruling families, with the possible exception of Qatar's al Thanis will feel the hot winds of Islamist extremism blowing hard in their faces. And nowhere more hotly than in Saudi Arabia. Islam's two holiest shrines are under the protection of the house of Saud but Islamist extremists have long considered the ruling family corrupt and therefore unworthy guardians of Mecca and Medina. Understandable then that the card that the Gulf states have played in the current crisis, with the Saudis taking the lead, has the word security stamped in bold letters upon it. And while it makes good sense to pressure the West and principally the United States to take up the cudgel against IS, with the Gulf states playing some kind of as yet to be specified supporting role, the security card is also usefully deployed against those who are calling for freedom, democracy and respect for human rights in the region. Of courses it is a card that has already been well played in Bahrain, where human rights activists and opposition politicians calling for reform have been bundled together with violent protesters and effectively labelled enemies of the state. A comprehensive review of how the government of Bahrain handled largely peaceful protests in 2011, a review commissioned by the King, emphatically proved gross human rights violations and showed how police and security forces behaved with impunity using excessive force to quell the uprising. The Bahrain ruling family says it has taken the criticisms on board and the government has embarked on what it says is a far reaching programme of reform. The opposition and human rights activists insist that is just window dressing and empty rhetoric - abuses continue, they say, with new laws in place that further erode individual rights and freedoms. However the US fifth fleet is based in the capital Manama. And Britain too has a smaller but not insignificant military presence. The rise of the Islamic State may have overtaken concerns about Iran but a strong military presence has been hugely important to Gulf security. So neither country has pushed as hard as it might when it comes to supporting reform initiatives. And both have now pretty much bought in to the Bahraini government narrative of ongoing reform. In the UAE, the conservative religious society al Islah has been linked to Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood. Dozens of members are in jail, serving long sentences, having been convicted of plotting the overthrow of the government there. International observers may have widely decried the lack of a fair judicial process - a criticism the UAE government routinely rejects - but the fact remains the governments of United States and Britain have allowed the Emiratis' version of events to go mostly unchallenged. In Saudi Arabia thousands of peaceful political dissidents languish in jail tarred with the same brush as violent jihadists. Once again western governments have remained silent. That's because in the great game that is being played out in an increasingly unstable region, security now more than ever easily transcends the call for democracy. And that is bad news for activists urging dialogue and peaceful change. The ruling families are in even less of a mood to listen than ever before. And to quiet any western government concerns over human rights abuses they need only point to the urgent need to crush IS as the clear and absolute priority. What that means in the short to medium term is that whatever momentum for democratic change that the Arab Spring brought to the Gulf has now ground to a halt. Indeed, it could be argued that the activists have been routed. Some are in exile, others in jail. And draconian new laws have silenced many who had previously used the internet to criticise Gulf governments. That is a perhaps unintended consequence of the rapid rise of IS. In that regard, if in no other, the jihadists have proved a useful buttress to the argument that security in the Gulf must inevitably trump human rights. But human rights and the call for democratic reform will never be entirely stilled. And once the threat of the Islamic State has been dealt with those calls will be heard loudly again. Whether the ruling families and their western allies choose to listen is another matter altogether.
