I will handle this episode a topic filled with mines, but as usual, we deal with dangerous points, and get out of them safely, because we ultimately work for the sake of this country and the Arab nation whose officials know well their stability comes only when Egypt is stable. "The New generation in the Gulf" seems as a tempting and interesting title to many, everyone is asked to contemplate. Our approach doesn't meet the insatiable desire of political gossip. Over my long journalistic and research career, I have never written to entertain readers but to warn of danger and put important issues on the list of my priorities. So who represent the new generation in the Gulf, especially the new rulers? When we say that, the mind goes out directly to the promising Prince Mohammed bin Salman, deputy of Saudi crown prince, perhaps because he played many roles that attracted attention not only in the Arab world, but also globally. It was no surprise that the British newspaper The Independent described him as the most dangerous man in the world, for his big ambitions and puts his enemies at home and abroad in mind, and seeking to be the most powerful commander in the Middle East. The Independent's important statement concludes that Mohammed bin Salman, who wants to follow in his grandfather King Abdul Aziz Al-Saud'd footsteps as a warrior who keeps balance between options. It is possible for him to think of a military strike against Iran, an idea which is described as appalling by the newspaper. The report ignored a statement by Mohammed bin Salman after Saudi Arabia executed Shiite Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, who spread sedition in the country. There was a possibility for a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, but Mohammed bin Salman resolved the matter. On January 8, 2016, Arrabeya Net website tackled bin Salman's remarks to the magazine «The Economist» in which he said that Saudi Arabia would not allow the outbreak of war directly with Iran, and warned that it would be a major disaster, and considered that his country's decision to cut ties with Iran came to avoid the real escalation between the two countries, after the attack on the headquarters of the Saudi diplomatic mission during the demonstrations from Iran to protest the execution of Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr. Asked on the possibility of a war with Iran, he said decisively: "This is not expected at all, and pushes in this direction is not in their right mind, because the war between Saudi Arabia and Iran means the beginning of a major disaster in the region, and will be reflected strongly on the rest of the world, and certainly will not allow that to happen". Bin Salman also emphasized he would not hope Iran was considered Saudi Arabia's biggest enemy. GCC relations with Iran have been one the most important challenges in the Middle East. Although there are some forms of relations with Iran, by virtue of diplomacy and geography, but that did not remove the fact that permanent tension and fears of the Gulf States towards the Iranian danger that comes from the threat of multiple historical experiences, and based on the strong and continuing objective reasons. It could be argued that the fears of the Gulf States from Iran are based on fundamental considerations that we are going to handle: 1- Contrasts between Iranian and Arab projects Since the Iranian revolution outbreak, Iran has sought to export the concept of revolution to the Arab States of the Gulf countries, particularly from neighboring countries, and even though some question the remains of the Iranian revolution, even within Iran itself, but the Iranian project is still strong. Iran is also talking all the time about their rights and influence in some areas of the Gulf, and try to replace the Arab identity of the Arabian Gulf, renaming it the Persian Gulf. The Iranian project is based on historical and religious references. The imperial ambitions of Iran expressed by Rohani, and Ahmadinejad have voiced dreams to rebuild the Islamic caliphate. The ambitions explicitly expressed by leading Iranian officials gave the right to the Persians to lead the Islamic Caliphate at this historic moment. 2- Iran's role in the new Middle East Project New Middle East project, which was put forward for the future of the region, depends on the existence of Iran as representative of the Shiite forces in the region in the face of Sunni forces (specifically the Gulf). And this proposal has been magnified in light of Iran's interference in the affairs of the Gulf countries by feeding sectarianism in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and neighboring countries and harming the Gulf direct interests in Iraq, Yemen and Syria. Iranian endeavors have been supported by the US following nuclear agreement with Iran was signed. 3- The growing conflicting interests after the Arab Spring Revolution The history of relations between the Gulf and Iran is full of crises and numerous disagreements, especially with Saudi Arabia, and perhaps the most important differences are related to the UAE islands occupied by Iran, on the eve of the exit of British troops from the UAE in 1971. It, then, continued to reject the UAE's efforts to solve the crisis with all peaceful methods and took unilateral measures to change the legal and demographic situation of the islands. The first Gulf War between Iraq and Iran caused a crack in Gulf-Iranian relations, and increased hostility. Also, one of the most important features is the tension in the intelligence activity in the Gulf, with several intelligence reports indicating the existence of Iranian cells in Gulf countries gathering information about economic and military installations and infrastructure. We refer here to the espionage case, which caused a crisis between Kuwait and Iran, where the Kuwaiti security forces discovered in May 2010 a spy network belonging to Iran's Revolutionary Guards targeting the infrastructure in this country. Stress and anxiety in the relations also include Iran's role in supporting the Houthi rebellion in Yemen for instability on its borders with Saudi Arabia, as well as the role in dumping Gulf States with drugs. The rift has grown due to the increasing Iranian role in Iraq since 2003, in the consecration of security chaos in this country through its support with money and weapons and some armed militias, something that worries the Gulf from Iran plans aimed sectarianism to enshrine in the region, which would destabilize the security situation in these countries. Recently, Saudi Arabia began supporting Sunni forces in order not to be dominated by Shiite government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki supported by Iran. In Syria, Saudi Arabia found the opportunity to dislodge President Bashar al-Assad, despite Iranian role forces with Lebanese Hezbollah in repelling the aspirations of Saudi Arabia. Lebanon was the most important point for Saudi Arabia. Therefore, it sought to force Hezbollah out of Syria through thwarting the formation of a new government in which Hezbollah is strong and has a large share with March 8 Movement. 4- More tense relations: Iran's nuclear programme Iran's nuclear ambitions and lack of transparency are common concerns for the Gulf states and a threat to their security, especially that Tehran acquire nuclear weapons that lead to instability in these countries, and cause an arms race between the countries in the region, given the gravity of turning Iran a nuclear state dominates the regional surroundings. The Arab view to enter Iran's nuclear club bearing vibration of trust between Arab governments and the Iranian government, particularly the Gulf states, which tested the real trends of Iranian politics more than once, and the triangle of Gulf fears represent in oil, economy and Iranian influence, through the following aspects: (1) The deal allows a breakthrough for Iran to have a large market for oil and gas. After the West has lifted economic sanctions on Iran, an increase in Iran's oil exports is expected amid other expectations that oil prices will fall, taking into account the fact that Iran owns the accumulation that reached 20 million barrels of crude oil per day. (2) It provides significant economic advances, especially with talks about the European governments releasing billions of dollars to the government of Tehran as well as other economic gains based on Iranian military industry. (3) The most important concern is the growing Iranian influence in the Gulf States which affects Saudi Arabia and the extent of its influence in the region. The Gulf States fear so much the appearance of another Bahrain within their territories, especially that the Shiite presence in the Gulf countries is very strong. It seems that the new rulers of the Gulf are deliberately cooling the conflict a little bit until they resolve a very important issue, the position of Egypt in particular in the regional political game after the Arab Spring revolutions. Factually, we have a new generation in the Gulf who sees that Egypt is not necessary to lead all the time. The old generation that saw Egypt's leadership as a destiny has completely disappeared from the scene. The new generation has a vision that the Gulf should participate in leadership, and in a later stage, to lead alone since it owns all the elements of leadership including a strong economy and strong international relations and openness to the Western and US theories in governance and politics, with all of them studying in the best and biggest western universities. This can be analyzed not only through political theories, but also through psychological analysis. But this new generation has been convinced over the time that they have to put Egypt in its right place, and never stop supporting it, because if it fell, they all would fall.
