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Is Yemen Becoming America's New Afghanistan?
Published in Albawaba on 30 - 04 - 2015

The local media in Yemen has claimed that a naval base, allegedly part of an increasing American military presence on Yemeni soil, is due to be established in Khor al-Umaira in southern Yemen, near the strategic Bab-el Mandeb. According to press reports, the base will include a floating dock, a training centre and a shooting range. US army corps of engineers estimated that the construction could be completed in around 730 days for a cost of approximately $5 million.
As US troops are slowly withdrawing from Afghanistan, US may need to reassess its strategic presence in the region and Yemen could be the perfect solution.
"Yemen is fast becoming a new US military outpost now that Washington has lost its footing in Afghanistan," said Catherine Shakdam, an American political risk consultant focusing on Yemen, told Islamist Gate. "It's been kind of hush-hush but now there are so many people talking about it, it is kind of the worst kept secret in Yemen."
In June 2013, the Al-Sharea daily reported for the first time that the US had deployed 1,500 marines to the al-Anad military base in Lahij. A Yemeni diplomat told the daily that American troops normally were deployed in small groups, and that a larger operation could indicate a forthcoming establishment.
The US has, however, not yet confirmed its alleged increase in military presence. "Systematically since 9/11 the Americans have increased their military foot-print in Yemen, it's slow but now it has grown so much that they can't deny it anymore," argues Shakdam, and adds, "Everything on the ground indicate that it is happening."
US currently has a diplomatic presence in the country's capital, which officially due to the security situation has been subject to expansion. The former Sheraton hotel has already been transformed into a semi-military base with US Marines positioned on the rooftop and all points of entry.
"US officials have also arranged for the US Embassy to build an estimated six to seven subterranean levels," explains Shakdam. There is also al-Anad military base in the southern city of Lahij and on Socotra Island, strategically located in the Indian Ocean in between the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula.
A US national security source recently told Reuters that the US government is suspecting that al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is plotting attacks against US targets, including the embassy in Sana'a.
Fearing that Yemen will become a haven for the terrorist Islamist group, which President Obama has described as the "most active in plotting against our homeland," the US administration has stepped up its drone attacks. The drone policy has become the Obama administration's counterterrorism trademark. However, the US government neither denies nor confirms such attacks.
Yemen's strategic value is undeniable, natural resources include oil and natural gas and the Arab League state's geo-strategic location, overlooking the Horn of Africa, the Gulf of Aden and its important oil route, as well as being an entrance to the Persian Gulf, is making it an important security outpost.
The US resumed military aid to Yemen after the resignation of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh in 2012. The same year the US intensified its air strikes policy on suspected al-Qaeda targets with the approval of Yemeni government, which and has become one of US's most loyal allies against radicalism.
In the beginning of 2013, US Homeland Security Undersecretary Rand Beers remarked, "The United States has a profound interest in advancing Yemen's security and prosperity... By enhancing collaboration with the government of Yemen, we reaffirm our commitment to more effectively secure our two countries against evolving threats and improve the trade and investment climate in Yemen."
However, the US military expansion comes at a controversial time for the US. The last few years the drone programme intensified and has killed a large number of civilians causing growing discontent on the ground. While the American government defends its policy, claiming it is an efficient counterterrorism apparatus, which has killed 35 key al-Qaeda militants, local sources argue that it is the civilian population that suffers the most from the warfare.
Analysts argue that the main accomplishment of the strategy has been limiting the group's whereabouts. Yemeni President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi continues to stand by the anti-terrorism measures, describing it as "a strong message to the elements of evil and terrorism."
"The Yemenis are quite nationalistic, and don't like foreign troops on their soil, regardless of nationality and motive," argues Shakdam. But President Hadi is politically weak, and the country is experiencing an unstable political government, AQAP threat and a strained economy, making the country dependent on foreign aid. It is not in President Hadi's interest to argue with the Americans right now," explains Shakdam.
Once there is a new constitution and a new elected President everything could change, adds Shakdam, but at a time of US slow withdrawal from Afghanistan and the increasing security threat posed by AQAP, "The US can't afford to leave Yemen right now. They are not going to go anytime soon."


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