Issues related to Iran's ballistic missile development program where never on the agenda in its nuclear talks, Dore Gold, the Director General of Israel's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told members of the Foreign Press Association at a meeting in Jerusalem's King David Hotel on Tuesday. Quoting Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Hossein Dehghan, Gold said that the missile development program would continue to progress. Gold warned that within five to ten years Iran will try to have nuclear weapons and Iran's long range missiles would be a danger not only to Israel but to the world. It's not just an Israeli problem he said, it's a global problem. In the not-too-distant future he predicted, Iran will have inter continental ballistic missiles that can hit America. The Shahab ballistic missile is brought out in Iranian military parades bearing a sign that Israel should be wiped off the map, he said. There is concern he admitted, that Iranian missiles are now getting well over Israeli air space and can reach Central Europe. As for the deal reached with Iran, Gold was convinced that just as Saddam Hussein had violated United Nations Resolution 687 with regard to review and oversight of weapons of mass destruction and the dismantling of Iraq's chemical, biological and missile programs, Iran would also find a way of circumventing the conditions set down in the accord. Gold was not troubled about the declared nuclear sites which Iran acknowledges. What bothered him were the undeclared sites, which according to the deal require that 24 days notice be given before they can be inspected. Recalling that Saddam Hussein's Special Republican Guard had been tipped off about inspections and had cleared sites of non-compliance, Gold had no doubt that Iran with 24 days notice would also cleanse sites of nuclear activity. "Everyone in Israel is concerned about Iran breaking out of restrictions," he said, declaring the 24 day period to be "the Achilles heel" in the agreement. Another lacuna in the agreement instanced by Gold was that it did not cover Iran's regional activity and its increased budgetary activities as sanctions are lifted and economic relations renewed. Iran's funding of terrorist groups will increase and will result in more regional chaos, he said. As things already stand, Iran has its boots on the ground all over the Middle East, said Gold, adding that Iran has aspirations to become a hegemonic power in the region and beyond. With such ambitions, he surmised, "how can you expect Iran not to try a nuclear breakout and create an atomic bomb?" Gold recalled that former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger had told him of the importance of the principles of international behavior when America was negotiating with the Soviets. Gold believes that this should also have been a factor in agreements reached with Iran. "You can't have a long term controllable arms agreement without dealing with the behavior of the parties," he said. "You can't have a reliable agreement with Iran while Iran is invading its neighbors." While Israel is not part of the deal, despite the futile efforts of German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel to get Iran to recognize Israel, Gold said that Israel must expose violations of the deal as they occur and must tell the truth. Even before the deal was concluded the Iranians tried to hide radioactivity in suspected sites, said Gold, giving as examples the digging out of top soil and covering a six foot depth with other soil, retiling walls and putting asphalt over another site to avoid detection of radioactivity. Aware that this may go against the grain of American policy, Gold said: "The US is an ally of Israel's and any discourse must be done through mutual respect." Despite Israel's disappointment and dissatisfaction with the deal, Gold nonetheless saw "a silver lining" in the regional situation. Emerging threats have created similar perceptions and a convergence of interests between Israel and the Sunni sector of the Middle East, he said. Israel's problems overlap with those of other countries in the region. He instanced a ballistic missile which the Iranians put in Yemen that was fired at Saudi Arabia. Another example was the Iranian take over of Bab-el-Mandeb, which impacts on the shipping of Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Iran is also active in trying to undermine Turkey, said Gold. Meir Javedanfar, an Iranian-born analyst who now lives in Tel Aviv and lectures at the IDC Herzliya took issue with some of Gold's statements Because Iran is obliged to allow inspection of undeclared sites, it cannot hide nuclear activity, he insisted. "Nuclear material is extremely difficult to remove from air, land or water, he said, and therefore no matter what Iran might do, it would not succeed in hiding its nuclear operations. The deal is not about trusting the Iranian regime, he insisted. "When it's not in their interests they don't keep deals. When it is in their interests they keep deals that others would throw away. Nobody trusts the Iranian regime, but you have to look at their political ecosystem. It's not a question about trust. It's a question about mistrust and verification." Javedanfar also made the point that if the Iranians wanted to make a nuclear weapon, they would have done so before the agreement. He suggested that what the West does not understand is that "in Iran there is a regime and there is a government, and we have to make that distinction." President Hassan Rouhani does not make any decisions without the instructions or approval of the supreme leader, the Ayatollah Khamenei, said Javedanfar, who remarked that Khameni is now distancing himself from Rouhani and letting him take the blame for anything that looks like compromise on Iran's part in the agreement. "If you want a moderate Iran, you have to worry about Rouhani," he said.. Javedanfar left room for hope by saying that "Iran's image in the region is starting to nosedive." Iran's ethnic cleansing of Sunnis is impacting on the region and is contributing to a strong anti-Iran coalition, said Javedanfar. Talking peace with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas would make Israel's position more acceptable in the region, he added as a coalition corollary. As an Iranian who knows the language and the mentality of his former fellow countrymen, Javedanfar was adamant that "the Iranian regime is not an existential threat to Israel. It is a strategic threat."
