What place will Egypt occupy on the emerging regional map? And how are the contours of a post-revolutionary society shaping up? Shaden Shehab quizzes prominent analyst Al-Sayed Yassin. Two years separate the revolutions of 2011 and 2013. Is the confusion of that time lifting or is Egypt still passing through an ambiguous phase? We are passing through a very sensitive period characterised by the fall of one regime and attempts to establish another. After everything that happened under the Muslim Brotherhood rule we are now trying to build a democratic state. We have a new constitution, a new president and now we are waiting for a new parliament. The structure of the coming parliament is probably the most difficult part of the whole process to predict. It is not clear which group will dominate, or at least have enough seats to have an effective input in legislation and the exercise of oversight. The new constitution gives parliament far more power than it previously had. It will be up to MPs to define the relationship between parliament and the presidency. Why are we still struggling to fulfill the goals of the 25 January Revolution? The period immediately following the January Revolution was not revolutionary enough. The country was ruled by the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF). Revolutionaries and pol-itical party leaders were out of the loop, opening the way for the Muslim Brotherhood, the largest and most organised group. The failure to establish a revolutionary council in which members of different generations could participate in the decision-making process was a big mistake. Another big mistake, of which the Brotherhood was the only beneficiary, was to hold parliamentary elections before a new constitution was agreed. Revolutionary forces were divided across more than 300 movements and groups. Given such division it was inevitable that the Brotherhood would win the greatest number of seats in parliament and then be able to push its candidate into the presidency. Responsibility for what happened must be shared between SCAF, youth movements and newly emerged political parties. A lot of opportunities were squandered. Do you believe the January Revolution was orchestrated by the Brotherhood, conspiring with Western powers? I do not believe the conspiracy theories. It is important, however, to examine the different roles played by various parties. It is a fact that some young revolutionaries had travelled abroad and received training in how to oppose entrenched regimes, but this was not the real trigger for the uprising. The real cause was the weakness of the Mubarak regime. Dissent has started a decade before Mubarak fell. There were strikes and a general outpouring of anger. The popular uprising that followed was a natural progression. I do not think any deal was struck between the Brotherhood and SCAF. More likely is that SCAF recognised the Brotherhood as the only organised political force in the country and in such a complex situation said, "Let's cooperate with this force." Do you think we are on the right track? Not yet. The new regime doesn't appear to have a clear, or comprehensive, vision. Where is the strategy, the comprehensive plan — covering the political, economic, social and cultural fields — for the next 20 years? I was once part of a group of intellectuals who met Hosni Mubarak. I told him, "Mr President, Egypt lacks a strategic vision." I suggested forming a higher council for strategic planning and he said, "Yes, we will think about that." When Mohamed Morsi was chairman of the Freedom and Justice Party I saw him interviewed on television and he said the party was committed to working with all political forces. I then called Essam Al-Erian, whom I knew, and told him I wanted to contact Morsi. Then I called Morsi and told him that if what he had said was true the people would back him because it meant the Freedom and Justice Party was serving the majority. Later I was invited to the presidential palace to take part in a meeting with intellectuals and actors. I asked Morsi if he remembered our telephone conversation. Then I told him no political party could hope to govern Egypt by itself. I urged him, as I had urged Mubarak, to formulate a strategic vision. I told Morsi there were already two available models, one produced by Dr Fathi Al-Baradei, a former housing minister and professor of planning in Ain Shams University, contained in four volumes, the second by Mohamed Mansour, a director of the Center of Futuristic Studies, which could serve as a basis for development. He asked me if I had the four volumes and I told him to speak to Al-Baradie. They did speak but nothing came of it. Whatever regime is in power, in the absence of a strategic vision nothing can be achieved. You are saying we still lack a strategic vision? We have taken some good steps. The Suez Canal project and plans to cultivate an additional five million feddans are important steps. But the initiatives remain scattered and do not yet add up to a comprehensive strategic vision. The importance of a vision is that it gives people a goal. It says what will be achieved in 20 years time. A comprehensive vision must have political, economic, social and cultural aspects, and must be aware of international developments in all these fields. You cannot think about Egypt without knowing what is going on in the international system. Is Egypt taking steps towards regaining a leading role in Africa and the Middle East? The international system is passing through a crucial period. It is moving from a unipolar to a multipolar system. US power is dwindling. China, India and Russia will have caught up with the US in two decades time. Decision-makers need to study the future map carefully. They need to start building relations with the key players of the future from now. Secondly, the cultural factor is very important. I think what we need in Egypt now is applying cultural analysis. Take for example Islamic State (IS), the reason of their formation needs cultural analysis, not just political. We need to understand the dominant values within the Arab community that contributed to the rise of those extremists and understand why the younger generation in Germany and France are joining IS. Do you think the current lack of vision will be remedied anytime soon? The first step, as I mentioned, is installing a new parliament. And we need to establish better communication with the people. The president and parliament must provide a clear diagnosis of the problems we face, and a clear prescription of what they intend to do to solve those problems. They must adopt the language of planning and identify short-, medium- and long-term goals. Social justice, for example, cannot be achieved in the short or medium term. It needs to be stated clearly that it is a long-term goal. That is perhaps why people feel nothing is really happening and want more to be achieved, and quickly ... This is a failure of rational thinking. Immediately after the revolution there were activists asking where the social justice promised was. This is ignorance. Social justice cannot be achieved in one or two years. It needs at least ten to 15 years. We must be honest with the public. We need to say this is what we want to do, and this is how long it will take. People need to have hope, but the hopes have to be realistic. This is the only way tensions can be contained. But we haven't even defined social justice. In terms of policy it seems to have been reduced to a question of the minimum and maximum wage. This is one element. German sociologist Ralf Dahrendorf defined social justice as opening ways to satisfy the basic needs of human beings, not just material but also moral needs. Education is very important. But how do you go about raising the consciousness of the people? Asked by the Higher Council of Culture to submit a cultural policy working paper, I discovered that 26 per cent of the Egyptian population is illiterate, that 26 million people live under the poverty line and 16 million live in informal areas. We need to understand the ramifications of these indicators. We should measure the quality of life, the quality of education, the quality of hospitals, the quality of transport services. Nor is it enough to say, "Oh, we've built such and such a number of new hospitals" and not worry about the quality, because the fact is the hospitals and clinics have been built but then do not offer any services. We need to educate both the masses and the elites. It is the responsibility of every politician and intellectual to daily update his own knowledge. We are living in the age of globalisation and the Internet. Everything is out there. We cannot speak the language of the fifties or sixties any more. We must be aware of what is going on in the world, for how can we understand it if we are not? This is the elite's responsibility. The map of Middle East is being reshaped as states sink into turmoil and terrorism crosses national borders. How will Egypt fit into the emerging map? We are in a period that is being characterised by the retreat of the nation state. Libya has collapsed as a nation state. So has Syria, Iraq and Yemen. This is a dangerous phenomenon. The state, after all, has been the only viable vehicle for development in the Arab world. Do you believe that the collapse of some Arab states is part of a plan to fragment the Arab region? While there are internal and external causes for the failure of Arab states, the internal causes are the most significant. Muammar Gaddafi abolished all state institutions following the revolution in Libya, replacing them with revolutionary gangs, leaving Libya very vulnerable. Syria was ruled on the basis of Alawites vs Sunni. The dictatorship of Saddam Hussein paved the way for Iraq's fall. The dynamics of dictatorship in the Arab world have undermined national states. But doesn't the recent history of Iraq indicate the existence of a Western plan to fragment the region? The US has attacked Iraq illegally, and against the will of a majority of Security Council members. This, combined with the fallout from Saddam Hussein's dictatorship, helped divide Iraq. Yes, there have long been schemes to divide the Arab world but it is the Arab world's tendency to dictatorship and lack of democracy that has allowed those schemes to be pursued. Is the battle against terrorism distracting us from other priorities? We are in a real war against terrorism but what about the whole picture? Where is the strategic, rather than tactical, vision? We are adopting an exclusively security approach to confront terrorism, which is wrong. We need to raise the consciousness of the masses, especially in rural and poor areas. Too many people have been left prey to extremist slogans. Work must be dome to correct their attitudes, to open closed minds. Decent education must be offered, and an enlightened religious discourse. What role is the media playing? It is playing a very negative role. For a decade now businessmen have been setting up TV channels. They pour money into these ventures, which compete with one another, championing this and that without paying lip service to objective coverage. They do not enlighten their viewers. They do not promote any understanding of what is actually going on in the country. The responsibility for this lamentable state of affairs falls squarely on the shoulders of those who fund the channels. Some political thinkers and revolutionaries say a third revolution is inevitable. What do you think? You make me laugh. Revolutions do not happen overnight. History shows every revolution has been preceded by a period of accumulation. The July 1952 Revolution had been brewing since 1945. Between 1945, the end of WWII and 1952, Egypt's liberal democratic parties failed to address the social problem and bridge the gap between the rich and the poor, and failed to address the national problem — i.e., the British occupation. The response was a coup d'etat that Nasser and the free officers turned into a revolution by pursuing social justice, working to provide equal opportunities, liberating the middle class and improving the lot of farmers and workers. The last decade of Mubarak's rule was also a period of accumulation, culminating in the 25 January Revolution, an explosion of the anger felt by many different segments of society. But what about the 30 June Revolution? Just one year of accumulation ... You are right. But it is unique, an astonishing case. The people staged what I would term a popular coup d'etat. Millions took the streets because they believed Morsi and the Brotherhood were tampering with the identity of Egypt. But might this not happen again? There are those who believe Al-Sisi is overseeing the return of Mubarak's repressive deep state. Such talk is childish. It's not that simple. We will never return to the Mubarak-era and I am astonished that supposedly educated people think it possible. They are not looking at the current situation objectively. We cannot leap to any conclusions before a parliament is elected and the third step of the roadmap completed. Are you optimistic? A difficult question. I am certain Egypt will regain its regional role, and that the country will move beyond the current political and economic crises. I would hope that once a new parliament has been elected it will exercise the powers given to it by the constitution, that the president will interact with it, and the interaction will create a democratic atmosphere in which we learn to agree to differ without being at one another's throats. We are in a critical phase. Let us wait. originally published by Al-Ahram Weekly
