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No peace deal
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 19 - 07 - 2007

Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad commits to peace, resistance, the Golan Heights but ignores Lebanon, reports Sami Moubayed from Damascus
There were few surprises in Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad's inauguration speech, given at the People's Assembly (parliament) 11 July. Observers expected a groundbreaking peace initiative towards Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. That did not happen.
They expected the speech to concentrate on Lebanon and the international tribunal which was set up under Article 7 of the UN Charter to trial the murderers of former prime minister Rafik Al
Hariri. None of that happened as well and surprisingly, the Syrian leader completely neglected Lebanon -- much to the displeasure of the anti-Syrian 14 March Coalition in Beirut. Instead his speech focussed on Syrian domestic policies.
He spoke about wage increases and economic, administrative, and political reforms, stressing that Syria would reform itself according to its own timetable and not under pressure from any foreign party, particularly, not the United States. He blamed the West for much of the stalemate in reforms in Syria. Assad mentioned that Syria had requested assistance from a foreign company to help with administrative reform, and that it had accepted, but had then been asked by the US not to come to the assistance of Syria.
Democracy was a tool for a better life, and not as many people claim, an end in itself, he stated. People cannot enjoy democratic practice, he noted, unless they are enjoying better economic conditions, meaning, priority should be given to socio- economic reform rather than political. Assad noted the achievements made during his era, and referred to private banks, private publications, private universities, and greater political participation within the National Progressive Front (NPF), a parliamentary grouping of leftist parties created by his father, the late president, Hafez Al-Assad, in the 1970s.
References were made to IMF statistics on the healthy economic growth in Syria. Politically he made reference to an forthcoming political party law, which would authorise political activity which was not administered by, or under the umbrella of the ruling Baath Party. He also said that a Shura council would be created in Syria (as was the case in 1918-1920).
During earlier speeches, Assad concentrated on Lebanon, rather than domestic issues, and the situation in Iraq and Palestine. This time while no reference was made to Lebanon, only a few statements referred to Iraq, with expected talk about the need for a timetable for US troop withdrawal. And with regard to Palestine, Assad pledged to use Syria's influence to foster dialogue and understanding between the Palestinians after the bloody clashes between Fatah and Hamas in Gaza.
He noted that despite all the promises that Syra made not to interfere in the affairs of its neighbours, the US and the West actually wanted it to interfere to safeguard their own interests. He also said that some people in the West claimed that Syria was a weak country. "If we were weak" he asked, "then why do they need us?" And if Syria was to fulfil US demands regarding the Middle East, then it should be given a permanent seat on the Security Council, he joked, because that would mean -- if anything -- that Syria was a regional superpower and not a weak state.
The most important part of his speech concentrated on peace with Israel. For some weeks now, the international and regional media has been abuzz with stories on the possible resumption of Syrian- Israeli peace talks. Earlier in this year, the daily Haaretz had spoken of Israel's secret talks in Europe with the Syrians in 2004, something that Damascus denied. This month, speaking to Al-Arabiya TV, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said: "Bashar Al-Assad, you know that I am ready for direct talks with you. I am ready to sit with you and talk about peace, not war."
Olmert added, "I will be happy if I could make peace with Syria. I do not want to wage war against Syria." On 11 July, however, The Jerusalem Post quoted a recent intelligence report saying that war with Syria was possible if Olmert did not find a peaceful solution for his problems with Damascus. Talk of war has similarly risen due to the mobilisation of troops from both countries. Israel is training 70 per cent of its reservists and military units are taking part in exercises along the Golan Heights.
One of Israel's most famous units, the Golani Brigades, recently completed high-profile war games. Guy Hazoot, the officer in charge of the 91st Division deployed along the border with Lebanon, noted: "The worst case is war, and we have to be prepared for the worst case." The Jerusalem Post added that if war was to break out, it would be many times worse for Israel than its confrontation with Hizbullah last year.
In his earlier speech before parliament in May 2007, Assad made statements that could be interpreted along the same lines. He noted that war was possible because "there was no progress in the peace process and there was no contact with Israel, whether covert or overt. The deputy chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces, Major-General Moshe Kaplinsky, said last week that war with Damascus this summer was unlikely.
"I hear the voices," he noted, "but to the best of our assessment, which is also my personal assessment, we do not expect a war this summer from Syria." Israel's mobilisation on the Syrian border was in response to Syrian troop movements, he added, calling it a "defensive" measure. According to further press reports from United Press International, quoting "well-informed sources in Washington," a "confrontation between Syria and Israel may happen this summer". This was echoed by Dennis Ross, the Middle East envoy of the Clinton era, who was quoted in the online version of Yediot Aharonot as saying there was a serious "risk" of war between both countries adding, "the Syrians are positioning themselves for war."
However, according to Assad Syria was not preparing for war, but was more interested in restarting talks with an honest broker who would help to restore the occupied Golan Heights. Secret talks, he added, were also off limits. "The most Syria could do," he noted, "was send a Syrian to a neutral place to negotiate with a third-party, who in turn, would convey Syria's message to the Israelis, who might be staying at another hotel."
"Direct talks between Syria and Israel were also out of the question at this stage." He spoke of the Israeli prime minister's initiatives, saying that Olmert had referred to 'peace' not 'land,' adding that the basis of any Syrian cooperation would be the borderline of 4 June, 1967. He also asked for guarantees, saying that from experience in the 1990s, Syria did not trust the Israelis.
"We did not trust them before the 1990s and now distrust them further." He asked for something similar to the agreement reached with the late Israeli leader Yitzhak Rabin which promised to restore the Golan Heights in full to Syria.


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