Hizbullah's opponents are playing for time, reports Lucy Fielder from Beirut Lebanon feared a showdown over the "false witnesses" saga this week. All sides hoped for a behind-the-scenes agreement before a cabinet session set for Wednesday, averting the need for a vote that could spark a government crisis. The indictment of Hizbullah members by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) for the 2005 killing of former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri is widely expected at any time in the next few months. The Shia military and political group wants Lebanon's highest court, the Judicial Council, to investigate the case of several witnesses who gave testimony to the international probe that implicated Syria in the killing, then retracted it. The group and its allies say those actions changed the course of the international investigation. They have made clear that if the pro- Western parliamentary majority gets its way, and the file is handed to Attorney-General Said Mirza, seen as close to their political opponents, they will escalate their campaign against the tribunal. The former opposition believes that the STL would have to take into account any Judicial Council findings on the false witnesses, which would take time to reach and, unlike those of a standard court, could not be appealed. "This is the real battle that's taking place now," Alain Aoun, member of parliament for the Free Patriotic Movement, a Christian ally of Hizbullah, told Al-Ahram Weekly. "The opposition wants the court to take the Judicial Council's findings into consideration; they could be important. And that will delay the indictment." Hizbullah, which is backed by Syria and Iran, is powerless to prevent the charges, whose date and content have not been disclosed by The Hague court. It can only knock the tribunal's credibility, especially in the eyes of the Arab world. A few months ago it aired what it said was evidence of Israel's perpetration of the crime. It is also pushing hard to uncover who paid and backed the witnesses, in the belief that would open a particularly damaging can of worms. The other prong of its attack is to try to get supporters of the tribunal in Lebanon, the pro- Western alliance also known as 14 March, and their Arab backers Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, to turn against the tribunal. "14 March are saying 'the court is inevitable, it's invincible'," said Omar Nashabe, justice editor of the pro-opposition Al-Akhbar newspaper. "But it can be done by Security Council vote if there's an international will. And if the Arab world and Lebanese turned their back on it, it would have no credibility." He cited the case against Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir over the Darfur conflict, and how it lost steam without regional backing. Al-Hariri's son Saad Al-Hariri, the prime minister, is under pressure to publicly reject the indictment of Hizbullah members. There are widespread fears of sectarian strife should the Shia group be implicated in the killing of the Sunni former premier. Al-Hariri said in August he no longer blamed Syria for the killing of his father and that false witnesses had led his team to their "politicised" accusation. Several visits by international figures from countries supporting 14 March, of which Al-Hariri is a part, have given the movement a shot in the arm. US Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner and US Senator John Kerry have all touched down in Beirut in recent weeks expressing support for the tribunal. "They want to see if they can bet on their people again. They're giving them a testosterone injection," Nashabe said. Last week's cabinet session was delayed because Al-Hariri was abroad. The next day, the former opposition carried out its threat to boycott a national dialogue session convened by President Michel Suleiman at Baabda Palace. "That was a message by Hizbullah to Saad Al-Hariri that if parliament doesn't meet this week on the false witnesses, it could lead to the resignation of its ministers and the fall of the government," said George Alam, a Beirut-based independent political analyst. "Hizbullah fears the 14 March team are dallying so that the indictments are issued before an agreement is reached. And that would change the picture completely." That the session went ahead with just one side present prompted accusations the "consensus president" had forsaken his neutrality. "That caused Syria's concern," Alam said. "He's meeting Feltman and Kouchner, but not coordinating with Damascus? That didn't go down well." Since no one expects the opposition to back down, any internal agreement would likely constitute a transfer of the witnesses file to the Judicial Council, but with Al-Hariri's backing. Should there be a vote, the wild card is Druze leader Walid Jumblatt. Officially part of Al-Hariri's majority in the national unity government, Jumblatt has moved towards the opposition. Now a strident critic of the court whose establishment he supported, he is seen as highly unlikely to vote with Al-Hariri. "As far as we know, there is still no agreement," Alain Aoun said two days before the hearing. "There is no common vision on the false witnesses issue." Aoun said that did not make confrontation inevitable. Hizbullah's alliance cannot push for a vote; the president has to call one. And he will do all he can, Aoun said, to avoid that happening. "I think the outcome of this session is vital. It could trigger a real government crisis," Aoun said. As so often in Lebanon, all eyes were on a speech Hizbullah Secretary- General Hassan Nasrallah was due to give on Thursday, the day after the session. Aoun said neither side wanted an explosion and that the Eid Al-Adha holiday could postpone the crisis. Such a crisis could entail Hizbullah and its allies withdrawing their ministers from the cabinet, bringing it down. "I do not see a serious clash in the near future, but for sure rising tensions and the government may collapse," Nashabe said. "Some people do not understand that Hizbullah will do anything, sacrifice anything, for the cause. This is a matter of life and death." Israel, too, "will do anything" to crush Hizbullah, he said. Like the United States, Britain and France standing behind it, the Jewish state sees its security as paramount. "This is not about justice for a former prime minister or Lebanon's sovereignty," Nashabe said. "They want to launch a massive legal battle against the resistance. It's about politics and interests." That battle followed Israel's failure to crush Hizbullah in the July war of 2006, he said. Nashabe predicted an attempt at mobilisation of Arab public opinion against Hizbullah and its Iranian backers following the indictment, as happened after 2006.
