Dina Ezzat gauges reaction to an Egyptian presidential commitment to develop peaceful nuclear energy "What nuclear reactor? We heard that talk before, but I don't think that we can do such things. We cannot be like Iran," commented a middle-aged civil servant. Speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly on condition of anonymity, this Egyptian argued that all official talk about "mega- projects" is empty rhetoric: "they just want to improve their image. They keep telling us about things that never happen. Didn't they tell us about Toshka, as a mega development project that will change the face of life in Egypt, and then nothing happened?" For this sceptical and frustrated citizen, the announcement made by President Hosni Mubarak Monday on pursuing a long ignored national strategy of building nuclear facilities for peaceful uses is simply camouflage for government plans to increase the price of electricity, gas and a host of other basics. Upon inaugurating an electricity power plant north of Cairo Monday morning, President Mubarak declared that Egypt was going to pursue peaceful nuclear technology. "We believe that energy security is a major part of building a future for the country, and an integral part of Egypt's national security system," he said. According to Mubarak, soaring prices of non-renewable energy sources -- particularly oil and gas, of which Egypt has comparatively limited reserves -- makes it imperative to pursue alternative means of energy generation. Increasing domestic and industrial demand for electricity is compounded by a growing sense of awareness on the climatic and ecological hazards resulting from fossil fuel emissions. Mubarak promised to shortly issue a decree to establish a supreme council for peaceful nuclear power development. This body would coordinate a national nuclear energy strategy with all concerned actors, including the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN nuclear watchdog. The president has meanwhile instructed the government to promptly draft laws to regulate the peaceful uses of nuclear technology. The announcement of Mubarak made headlines in all state- run and owned media the following day. It also received some positive nods of approval from leading world capitals. Domestic political opposition quarters, however, perceived the declaration as propaganda ahead of a much-anticipated congress of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) chaired by Mubarak. Opposition figures highlighted the dismal record of the government in honouring such commitments. Pointedly they were critical of the failure of the government to live up to a similar commitment made a little over a year ago by the president's son, Gamal Mubarak, assistant secretary-general of the NDP. Some saw that announcement as a step towards his succession as president. Economist Ahmed Sayed El-Naggar is far from being an admirer of government policies or regime priorities. However, when it comes to the proposed nuclear plant, El-Naggar is more than willing to switch from being a harsh critic to a keen supporter. According to a paper written by El-Naggar prior to the early promotion of peaceful nuclear energy last year, in view of the soaring price of oil -- jumping in less than 10 years from $17.5 per barrel to $61 last year -- it is economically insane for a developing country like Egypt to keep ignoring the nuclear option. "This year we expect the average price of oil per barrel to reach $70. We really have no other choice but to go nuclear," El-Naggar said. Like other government critics, El-Naggar is dismayed at the state's failure to live up to the promises it made a year ago. "This created a major credibility problem for a government that is already short on credibility," he said. Egypt originally launched a nuclear energy programme in the 1950s, during the heyday of Egypt's developmental ambitions, but it was abruptly shelved in the wake of the Chernobyl disaster. Unlike other critics, El-Naggar does not immediately qualify Mubarak's latest announcement as empty political rhetoric: "I believe the announcement that was made by President Mubarak this week is based on sound economic assessments and is not at all linked to succession speculation," he said. El-Naggar added, however, that the regime is finding it increasingly imperative to walk the nuclear road in the name of protecting its regional influence. "I think the regime has become very sensitive to the fact that Egypt is perceived as a lesser regional power than Iran," which has pursued its own nuclear energy programme with vigour, El-Naggar argued. "If this government wants to prove it is serious then I expect to learn of a bid for the construction of the first reactor at the previously chosen site of Al-Dabaa in a few weeks, not a few months." El-Naggar added that the ruling regime could not have been impressed with unfavourable comparisons made in regional forums that ranked Egypt as less important than Algeria, which has an active nuclear reactor. In press statements Tuesday, Minister of Electricity Hassan Younis indicated that the government is planning prompt action but offered no specific details, save for the important fact that Egypt will most likely buy, rather than process, nuclear fuel. For his part, Ali Islam Metwali, chairman of the Nuclear Energy Agency, is not willing to commit to a specific date on the taking of bids for the construction of Egypt's first nuclear power station. Speaking to the Weekly Tuesday, Metwali confirmed the determination of the state to build and operate its first reactor within eight years "maximum", and at an estimated cost of $1 billion. According to Metwali, the past 12 months were spent in studies that grounded the commitment announced by President Mubarak Monday. Of the little detail Metwali was willing to share, the state is certain to own and operate the first reactor, though the participation of the private sector in the future, under the strict supervision of a nuclear safety body Metwali said would be soon established, would not be ruled out. Further, Egypt would seek the help of the US, Canada, Japan, France or Russia, or perhaps more than one country, in the construction of its first power station that is likely to be based on a single reactor. Metwali did not exclude future cooperation among Arab states, in line with a resolution adopted by the last Arab summit in Riyadh urging Arab possession of peaceful nuclear technology. All scenarios for cooperation with Israel are excluded, however. "Israel is the only country in the Middle East that is not member to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and as such we do not cooperate in nuclear matters." Nuclear scientists who spoke to the Weekly on condition of anonymity expressed keen enthusiasm for the project. They argued that it would make use of overlooked nuclear expertise built up by state funds in the 1950s and 1960s. They dismissed concerns of another Chernobyl. "Chernobyl is a story of an old Soviet-style reactor. Nowadays reactors are built differently," commented one. ( see Editorial p.12)
