Political intrigue is again holding Sudan back from embracing peace, writes Gamal Nkrumah Sudanese President Omar Hassan Al-Bashir is visiting South Africa on the first leg of an African tour that also takes him to Burundi. The Sudanese president's deliberations in South Africa are not restricted to the political sphere. Indeed, strengthening economic cooperation is high on the agenda. Sudan produces 500,000 barrels of crude oil per day, and energy-starved South Africa is keenly interested in buying Sudanese oil. On the domestic front, the Sudanese government is still reeling from a rupture a fortnight ago when the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) decided to withdraw from the coalition government of national unity after accusing its chief partner, the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) of President Al-Bashir, of failing to abide by the terms of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed between the Sudanese government and the SPLM on 9 January 2005. Though the NCP and the SPLM have patched up their differences, at least the major ones, palpable tensions remain. Sudanese officials, both NCP and SPLM, are nonetheless presenting a united front, at least for the moment. First Sudanese Vice-President and SPLM leader Salva Kiir was at Khartoum International Airport to bid farewell to Al-Bashir. Kiir told reporters after seeing off the president that the two men had "reached agreement on various issues". He reiterated the Sudanese president's claim that only "Abiye" remains contested. Various tribes and ethnic groups inhabit the oil- rich enclave of Abiye, including the Dinka people predominant in southern Sudan. The disputed enclave is regarded as part of Southern Sudan by the SPLM. However, the NCP considers it as part of the territory of northern Sudan. Second Vice-President Ali Othman Mohamed Taha, too, made reconciliatory statements. He had earlier been vociferously anti-SPLM. He was especially uproarious about Abiye being part of Northern Sudan. Abiye has for long been administered as part of Kordofan province, a large multi-ethnic province that borders Darfur. Already there are signs that the conflict in Darfur might spill over into Kordofan. Last month Iraqi and German expatriate technicians were kidnapped and held hostage by Darfur armed opposition groups. The two men are in Sudan as employees of a Chinese oil company. China, which imports four-fifths of Sudan's oil exports, now plays an important behind-the-scenes diplomatic role trying to foster peaceful co-existence between the NCP and the SPLM. Factional fighting between various political groups compounds political problems in Sudan. But the overriding concern of most political observers of Sudan is the schism between north and south. The SPLM insists that it does not necessarily advocate secession. That, it claims, depends on the manner in which the ruling NCP in the north conducts the national reconciliation agenda. So far, the SPLM contends, the NCP has failed to follow through. Tensions are also ideological. The NCP is Islamist in orientation while the SPLM is avowedly secular. Two particular bones of contention are the withdrawal of Sudanese government forces from southern Sudan and the distribution of oil revenues. The two issues are inextricably linked. The SPLM claims that government forces are concentrated in strategic garrison towns and in the vicinity of oil-producing areas such as Abiye. It is estimated that 17,600 Sudanese government troops are currently stationed in southern Sudan. It is against this backdrop that Sudan's Ceasefire Political Committee (CPC), an independent, multi-party group that oversees the implementation of the CPA, urged the Sudanese armed forces to withdraw from oil-rich Southern Sudan by 15 December. By the same token, the SPLM/A is called upon to withdraw from the Nuba Mountains in southern Kordofan province and Abiye by 15 December. The SPLM/A has massive popular support in certain northern Sudanese regions, including southern Kordofan, the Nuba Mountains, and the southern parts of the Blue Nile region. Recalcitrant armed opposition groups in Darfur, too, are stepping up the pressure. Not only did they spoil the chances of peace at the Sirte conference in Libya last week, but they also threaten to derail Sudan's slow march towards democratisation. They do not trust the NCP on political liberalisation. The leaders of several groups met in the southern administrative capital of Juba last week and confirmed their close cooperation with the SPLM. Recurrent divisions among Darfur's armed opposition groups have emerged as the main stumbling block to kick-starting Darfur peace talks.
