It might be spring equinox but it's a new political era for Sudan, declaims Gamal Nkrumah By common consent, Egypt is never happier than when Sudan is secure and Sudanese territorial integrity and national sovereignty safeguarded. President Hosni Mubarak congratulated in person his Sudanese counterpart on the electoral victory secured by the latter. Sudanese President Omar Hassan Al-Bashir made it a point to visit Egypt immediately after the announcement that he had secured another term. The visit highlighted the exceptionally close relationship between the two neighbouring countries, and the special friendship they currently enjoy. The oil-fuelled Sudanese economic boom is now serving Egypt well. The procedure for calling on the Egyptian leader by the Sudanese president is notably informal these days. The broad lines of Sudanese national security mirror the fraternal relationship between Egypt and its southern neighbour. Never before has Sudan seemed more crucial to Egypt's economic and political well being than today. The Nile, new trade routes and oil pipelines are criss-crossing the African continent. Common economic interests bind Egypt and Sudan. Egypt is no enforcer of peace in Sudan, even though there is a powerful peacekeeping presence in Sudan in the shape of Egyptian peacekeepers in war-torn Darfur. The visit of Al-Bashir hints at the scale and scope of the bilateral relations between the two nations. Immense commercial and economic, not to mention strategic and political considerations, are redefining what Sudan means to Egypt -- and what Egypt means to Sudan. For all its promise, Sudan faces serious challenges -- politically and in terms of economic development. A penchant for political intrigue and conspiracy among Sudanese opposition parties is no help to Sudan's image as a country grappling with democratisation and radical political reform. The Sudanese opposition has not yet openly acknowledged the legitimacy of President Al-Bashir's political victory. And, it is unlikely to do so anytime soon. The Sudanese opposition fared badly in the 11-15 April poll. Its wounds, however, were self-inflicted, according to Al-Bashir and his ruling National Congress Party (NCP). The Sudanese opposition cried foul. Key parties had withdrawn from the presidential race leaving the arena for Al-Bashir to outstrip them all. His nearest rival, Yasser Arman, the presidential candidate of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement scored an impressive 22 per cent, considering that he had withdrawn from the presidential race, indicating that the SPLM has a wide base of popular support in northern Sudan. Moreover, the SPLM received a walloping 93 per cent of the southern vote, paving the way for a landslide victory in the 2011 referendum. The Sudanese president stressed after his historic victory that the southern referendum would take place on schedule. The southern Sudanese political rivals declared the results fraudulent. Lam Akol, leader of the SPLM-DC (Democratic Change) and a former Sudanese foreign minister, secured a paltry seven per cent of the southern vote. It is not clear if the 10 political parties that competed in southern Sudan's presidential poll are for outright independence. All of the southern contenders are vague on this particular question, including the SPLM and the SPLM-DC. What is clear is that all eight of the parties in the north would prefer to see a united Sudan. The critical issue here is the preference of the international community, and especially Sudan's African and Arab neighbours, not to mention the United States. If diplomatic recognition is not the vital prerequisite that marks out a sovereign nation, what does? Southern Sudan is not yet an independent, separate state. That is to be decided in the referendum next year. The danger that Sudan will disintegrate into breakaway statelets looms large. The peace process in southern Sudan is still in a nascent and experimental state. Southern Sudanese rivals to the SPLM are determined to establish their political credentials. However, the critical struggle for the future of Sudan lies in the north of the country. The two major political opposition parties fared poorly in the polls. Hatim Al-Sirr, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Unionist Party barely scraped two per cent. Sadig Al-Mahdi, leader of the Umma Party, who withdrew from the presidential race, wrested one per cent of the presidential poll. President Al-Bashir described the Sudanese elections as "civilised" and praised the "respectful conduct" during the elections which he stressed witnessed "no clashes or friction". Even though there was no palpable violence in northern Sudan, clashes did erupt in the south of the country. The African Union and the Arab League both approved of the Sudanese elections. The European Union disapproved, dismissing it as a sham, while Washington was vague. Sheer inertia threatens to do Sudan a great disservice. The results of the Sudanese elections are bound to have profound repercussions on the country's neighbours to the north and the south. Parallels between the democratic transformation process in Sudan and Egypt have been drawn. Egyptian pundits, taking their cue from their Sudanese counterparts, have questioned not only the credibility of the Sudanese presidential poll but also the precise role played by regional and international observers. Ibrahim Eissa, writing in the independent daily Al-Dostour, suggested that if Al-Bashir can accept international observers across the country, then Egypt should follow suit in its own up-coming presidential and national assembly elections. Eissa pointed out that Al-Bashir still managed to chalk up a healthy if dubious majority. However, votes don't translate easily into acquittal as far as the International Criminal Court goes. Al-Bashir might be given the red- carpet treatment in Egypt but he is still indicted -- wanted in the West. But the undemocratic days of yore are now long gone. (see p.7)
