Lebanese politics continue to be driven by regional rivalries, writes Omayma Abdel-Latif from Beirut Could there be a worse moment to praise Lebanese democracy -- as US President George Bush did in his opening statements at Annapolis -- than now? Lebanon, mired in a bitter conflict over presidential elections, the proxy battleground for regional rivalries, is a steadily failing state struggling hard to keep the spectre of civil war at bay. Lebanese democracy is a fantasy shared by few outside Washington. Almost one week after Lebanon tumbled into its presidential vacuum there are no signs of the crisis abating. Doomsday predictions may have taken a back seat for the time being, but there are growing fears, particularly among the country's Christian population, that the paralysis will continue for some time. Parliament has failed five times to muster the two thirds quorum necessary to elect a president. A sixth session, due on Friday, is expected to be postponed. The latest reports suggest that the pro-government US-backed March 14 is floating the idea of amending the constitution to allow figures such as military chief Michael Suleiman, and the head of Lebanon's National Bank Riyad Salama, to be nominated as presidential candidates. Article 47 of Lebanon's constitution prohibits first degree civil servants to run for presidency while employed by the state or during the first two years of their retirement. Asked whether 14 March would agree to constitutional amendments, Samir Geagea, a key Christian figure in the alliance who had earlier opposed the idea, said "all options were open". Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir has also come out in favour of amending the constitution "if it means saving Lebanon". Many commentators argue that floating Suleiman's name as a presidential candidate is an attempt to isolate Michel Aoun, head of the Free Patriotic Movement. He controls the largest Christian bloc in parliament. Aoun's popularity has soared to new heights as increasingly he is viewed as a bulwark against attempts to marginalise Lebanon's Christians as significant political players. It is fast becoming clear that both the opposition and pro-government forces remain keen to maintain the status quo, and neither party wants to resort to violence as a means to end the crisis. Actions that might be seen as provocative are being carefully avoided. The 14 March alliance is scrupulously abiding by the two-thirds quorum in the process of selecting the president and the Western- backed government of Fouad Al-Siniora, unwilling to provoke the opposition and large sections of the Christian street, has been loath to invoke the presidential powers delegated to it by dint of the constitution. The unspoken deal is that in return the opposition will not mobilise its own popular base in order to bring down the government. As the Saudi-Iranian power struggle and Syrian-US political manoeuvring continue to exact a high price in terms of Lebanese stability, the political stalemate, which some commentators suggest could last until parliamentary elections due in 2008, has once again exposed the extent to which Lebanon is prey to regional crises. The Lebanese, explained Ibrahim Al-Amin in the independent daily Al-Akhbar, have come face to face with a basic political fact. "The strategic decisions that impact on Lebanon," he wrote, "are not taken here." Hizbullah, representing the majority of Lebanon's Shia, and Tayar Al-Mustaqbal, which commands the report of Sunnis, are the two most powerful political forces. Both are tied to a larger alliance outside of Lebanon, Hizbullah to "the axis of resistance", and Tayar Al-Mustaqbal to moderate Arab regimes allied to the US. It is this inside-outside dynamic that is sustaining the impasse, underlining the complex way in which local, regional and international rivalries are interlocked as they play out in Lebanon. Typically, the March 8 opposition movement claims the presidential vacuum is an American strategy while March 14 claim it is part of a Syrian scheme to engineer a comeback in Lebanon. The subtext of the crisis is that Damascus and Washington have tacitly agreed to maintain the status quo until a deal can be brokered ending the US-imposed isolation of Syria. Internal dynamics, though, should not be underestimated, and cracks are beginning to show in the opposition and pro-government alliances. Both parties worry about the frustration and disappointment among their grassroots supporters at their failure to deliver on promises made to their constituencies. Antouan Zhara, a Lebanese Forces MP, acknowledges that "14 March is not winning". The evidence, he said, was the "failure to force the election of a president in time". The same sentiment is echoed in opposition circles. The opposition's failure to bring down the Siniora government has proved a litmus test. Hizbullah's fear of sectarian strife, argued one opposition figure, has made it drag its feet on any move that might provoke Lebanon's Sunnis. Michael Al-Mur, a key ally of Aoun, has distanced himself from the Rabiya meetings -- called for by Aoun Sunday for consultation with Christian politicians on an exit strategy -- while a public spat between Geagea and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, left the pro- government alliance bruised. Jumblatt sent shock waves in political circles when he toned down his criticism of the opposition, calling for compromise and instructing his supporters to build bridges with Hizbullah. A source close to Hizbullah revealed that Jumblatt sent a letter to Sayed Hassan Nasrallah recanting many of his outspoken criticisms of the group. Hizbullah has yet to respond to his overtures. What next for the opposition? The onus is on Aoun, says one Hizbullah figure. The General is hoping to build public opinion so as to pressure the Maronite Patriarch to take a clearer stand and force Christian ministers to resign from Siniora's cabinet, playing on Christians' fears that they are being marginalised. Whether such fears are real or imagined is less significant than the fact that their role as political actors is being questioned. How long Lebanon can withstand the political polarisation and high levels of sectarian tension is unclear. Most commentators believe that there will be no resort to violence to resolve the deadlock. And as long as there is no will on the part of the country's two Muslim sects to resort to violence armed conflict will be kept under wraps.
