In Focus: Israel's next aggression Brazenly, Israel is planning a full-scale attack on the starved people of Gaza. Will the world and Arabs just watch, asks Galal Nassar Former Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin used to wish that he would wake up one morning and Gaza would be gone, sunk in the sea along with its inhabitants. Many Israelis now share the same thought, with only one difference. They want to make it happen. The Israeli government assumes that it has no further obligations towards Gaza, not since Ariel Sharon's plan of withdrawing from the Strip and evacuating Jewish settlements was carried out in September 2005. Quite a strange assumption, if you ask me, considering that Israel still controls Gaza's shores and airspace as well as most of its borders. Its army keeps launching incursions, and it is the sole source of electricity, fuel, water and basic supplies for Gaza's 1.5 million people. Israel's religious extremists suddenly discovered that Gaza is not part of Biblical Israel. They joined a chorus of Israelis who want Gaza to disappear from the map. Even peace activists seem to agree. A Peace Now leader recently wrote an article in Yediot Aharonot claiming that: "Israel has exhausted all possibilities for alleviating the fanaticism of Hamas through self-restrained action in Gaza. So now it is time to do what it takes to get rid of the Strip, even if that involves sending the Gaza population into shock through starvation, liquidation of political leaders, and even bombardment of residential areas... Perhaps hundreds will die... Perhaps a quarter of a neighbourhood in Gaza would do the trick." Such is the extent to which the destruction of Gaza has become a public and government quest, even a military necessity. Israeli officers often describe Gaza as a "snake pit" not worth sacrificing the life of one Israeli soldier for. Israel has discovered lately that it cannot manipulate Gaza in whatever way suits it, not even through a brutal blockade that has turned Gaza into a beleaguered Palestinian ghetto. You'd think that Qassam rockets were the main reason Israel tightened the noose on Gaza. But Israel's main concern is to weaken the supposedly hardline Hamas, whose very existence obstructs "progress" in talks between Israel and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Still, Israel's siege of Gaza has so far failed to stop the rockets or weaken Hamas. The recent breach of the Egyptian-Gaza border by thousands of Gaza inhabitants brought into focus Israel's responsibility as an occupying power. Israel is not just responsible for Gaza because it is the occupying power; it also had a hand in encouraging the birth of the Hamas movement, which it used initially to undermine the authority of Arafat and Fatah, in much the same way President Anwar Al-Sadat used Islamists in the 1970s to undermine Egyptian leftists. Later on, Hamas succeeded in challenging Fatah for leadership, a success due in part to Fatah's own corruption and abuse of power. But what exactly does Israel hope to achieve in Gaza? According to Israeli military analysts, leaving the Rafah checkpoint unsupervised would be a doomsday scenario, one that would lead to the smuggling of terrorists and modern weapons across the checkpoint. Some Israelis, on the other hand, thought that opening the border between Gaza and Egypt was a good thing, for it was an excuse for Israel to abandon its responsibilities towards Gaza's inhabitants. According to this scenario, the Gazan population would get food, fuel and medicine from Egypt, perhaps even exporting their agricultural products to Europe through Arish Airport or the Port Said harbour. But Egypt, unwilling to humour the Israelis, sent the Palestinians back and tightened the border. Having failed in Gaza, Israel now sees Hamas as a major threat to its security and is hoping to destroy it. Most Israelis oppose any agreement with Hamas, citing its support for suicide operations against civilians. But let's not forget that it was Hamas that brought Netanyahu to power in Israel in 1996. It was Hamas that brought Ariel Sharon to power as well. And it was Hamas that created the current state of chaos among Palestinian ranks. Hamas doesn't want Gaza alone. It wants to control the West Bank so as to open a wider front against Israel. In the light of the above, Israel is now thinking of waging a massive military operation in Gaza aimed at destroying the organisational structure of Hamas, its arms depots, and to shock the Gaza population into rallying around President Abbas. All this before the resumption of peace talks with Mahmoud Abbas, for the latter cannot make a deal with Israel stick unless he has the backing of the overwhelming majority of Palestinians. According to estimates by the Israeli Defence Ministry, a major operation in Gaza may cost Israel anywhere between 100 and 200 soldiers, against a death toll of 1,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians. Extensive damage to property, especially in residential areas, is to be expected. Supporters of military action in Israel think that this would be a small price to pay. What makes an Israeli offensive in Gaza even more likely is that Fatah is giving up on reconciliation with Hamas. Israeli military action that ends the current power struggle is, in Fatah's eyes, a tantalising prospect. The Israeli army has made plans for an offensive that it likely will execute if Hamas fires another rocket on settlements close to Gaza or on Ashkelon. But Israel may not even wait that long. An Israeli defence assistant recently said that Israel could not tolerate a Hamas-led state on its southern borders. The timing for the offensive, therefore, is purely tactical. Israel will attack once it is confident of success. Israeli Defence Ministry sources say that two armoured brigades and one infantry unit are likely to be used in the offensive, with backing from the air force and the navy. But Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is yet reluctant to order the attack. He prefers a long running economic blockade instead, a view shared by the head of Israeli military intelligence and opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu. Ehud Barak and the commander of the army's southern zone think otherwise. They are trying to get the prime minister to order the attack right away. Israeli sources say that Hamas has 20,000 fighters at its disposal, from its own militia as well as those of Islamic Jihad and the Popular Resistance Committees. The Israeli plan is to wage a massive infantry and armoured forces offensive against northern Gaza, while sending another force to the Philadelphi Corridor in southern Gaza. Optimistically, the Israelis think they can bring Gaza under their control within five hours and hand over the crossing points to the security forces of President Abbas. According to the Israeli plan, the forces sent into Gaza would return to Israel within 72 hours. Only the forces deployed along the Philadelphi Corridor would remain in place. Now we know what the future holds, are we to expect Arab and Palestinian action to avoid the deaths of hundreds of Palestinians and the destruction of Gaza's infrastructure? I doubt it, not when everyone seems to have concluded that there is something to gain one way or another from doing nothing. The Palestinians are therefore likely to suffer another tragedy. And Egypt's national security is unlikely to improve as a result.
