Hizbullah has proven its resolve when under threat. Unless there is a swift political deal, civil strife could be the net result, Lucy Fielder reports from Beirut Hizbullah's swift military takeover of west Beirut and strategic parts of Lebanon last week broke a drawn-out political deadlock and laid bare the issue at its heart -- the Shia guerrillas' weapons essential to confront Israel. Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora's government is besieged in the Serail; the main leaders of the western-backed 14 March movement cowering in their homes. Hizbullah took a government attempt to ban its telecommunications system and sack the Shia head of airport security as the opening shots of a US- and Israeli-inspired war on its weapons. This tiny country has attracted more than its fair share of international and regional interest and interference focussed on these weapons. As Al-Ahram Weekly went to press, an Arab League initiative was awaited with unusual eagerness, despite the body's failure to end the 18- month political standoff. A compromise enshrined therein would likely be a sign that the Saudi regional powerhouse -- and backer of the ruling team -- has given its blessing to defusing the crisis. However, analysts warn that if the initiative contained nothing to appease the opposition, whose main demand remains a veto-wielding third of cabinet seats to block any attempt on its weapons, then a drawn-out crisis could be in the cards. A comment by Saudi Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faisal this week was taken as a sign that the government would be pressured not to strike a deal with Hizbullah. "For Iran to back the coup that happened in Lebanon and support it will have an impact on its relations with all Arab countries," Faisal said. Amal Saad-Ghorayeb said it appeared the government was ready to accept Hizbullah's two formal demands: rescind the decisions and return to the dialogue table. "But then the US, Saudi Arabia and Egypt stepped in with threats and now the government looks emboldened again," she said. "It partly depends on how far the Americans are willing to go to support Al-Siniora. Will they support him at the risk of pushing the country into civil war?" US President George W Bush has again thrown his weight behind the government and pledged support for the army. "The international community will not allow the Iranian and Syrian regimes, via their proxies, to return Lebanon to foreign domination and control," he said. Hizbullah is unlikely to blink first, so if the government holds out, the standoff could again erupt in clashes. That would put the army in a precarious position, especially given constant fears it could split along sectarian lines, as it did during the civil war, if embroiled in an internal conflict. After opposition gunmen seized 14 March- backed Future Movement centres in Beirut, the army took weapons caches, arrested Future fighters, and set up of checkpoints that appeared to consolidate rather than prevent opposition control. These actions fuelled government supporters' suspicions that the armed forces were siding with the opposition. "The army has been reduced to the role of cleaning up after Hizbullah, which is not very dignified for a national army," said Paul Salem, head of the Carnegie Endowment's Middle East Centre in Beirut. Quds Press and several other media reported that around 60 senior officers in the Lebanese army had written a letter threatening to resign. Saad-Ghorayeb said Army Commander Michel Suleiman, the nominal consensus candidate to take over the five-month-vacant presidential seat, was again acceptable to Hizbullah after several months in which it feared he had shifted. "The military ethos that Israel is the enemy cannot be changed overnight. When it comes to Hizbullah's arms, he's proven to the group that he's solid," she said. Hizbullah appeared to have won the military battle, for Beirut at least, at the time of writing. It had also seized high points in Shouf, Lebanon's watchtower with views over the coastal plain and Beirut from one side, and the eastern Bekaa Valley on the other. Judith Palmer Harik, president of Metn University and author of a book on Hizbullah, said control of the Beirut-Damascus highway was one aim behind the fighting there. "In thinking about the next war with Israel it is very important for Hizbullah to have the strategic areas," she said. "What we've seen this week is Hizbullah trying to cover all bases for the next fight." Hizbullah figures interviewed since the July 2006 war said they expect any future Israeli invasion to be via the southern Bekaa, the area overlooked by the Barouk mountain and other areas taken by the group and handed to the army. Hizbullah fighters stayed out of the Druze villages to avoid a sectarian bloodbath. Saad-Ghorayeb said Hizbullah had moved to neutralise armed internal opponents. "Hizbullah said that the next war with Israel would be a two-pronged attack, that an internal militia would fight it, and Nasrallah has made clear it would be ready to fight that war." That explained the controversial Hizbullah and Amal "cleansing" of Future Movement areas' fighters and weapons, she said. About 80 people lay dead after a week of clashes. Now that the "resistance weapons" have for the first time turned against domestic foes, many Lebanese fear Sunni-Shia strife could be the long-term fall-out. "The tit-for-tat potential is enormous," Saad- Ghorayeb said. "All this is also fuelling an anti- Shia backlash and giving the Future Movement a new-found identity, a cause to fight for. Hizbullah's source of strength, its weapons, is also a source of weakness." Ibrahim Al-Amine, chairman of the board of directors of pro-opposition Al-Akhbar, warned Hizbullah, with whom he has excellent contacts, that Salafi militancy could be the unwelcome alternative to Future. He reminded Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a column: "The goal behind any protest, whether it be peaceful or violent, is to reach actual partnership in power. This requires serious reconciliation, and the door to this is through opening a hole between the wall separating Hizbullah from the Future Movement."
