For three days in Sharm El-Sheikh, the World Economic Forum on the Middle East cautiously projected a positive image of the future of the region. Dina Ezzat attended and listened Al-Qaeda pushed back Iraqi officials say they are making progress in stabilising Iraq, but can offer no promises Adel Abdul-Mahdi, Iraqi vice-president, Burham Saleh, Iraqi deputy prime minister, and Hoshyar Zebari, Iraq's foreign minister, have their differences over the management of Iraq. This week in Sharm El-Sheikh, however, as they participated in a special session on Iraq during the World Economic Forum on the Middle East (WEF-ME), all three officials seemed in harmony as they said one after the other that Al-Qaeda is being defeated in Iraq. Promptly, however, each of the three officials added that much work needs to be done before the victory of US forces and the nascent Iraqi army over Al-Qaeda in Iraq is affirmed. "There is no fast 'Yes' to the question of Al-Qaeda's definitive defeat in Iraq," said Abdul-Mahdi to the nods of Saleh and Zebari. Despite progress, he added, "Al-Qaeda is still active, even if much weaker than before." According to the three Iraqi officials, the signs of success over Al-Qaeda in Iraq go beyond what they qualify as a significant -- even if uncertain -- drop in operations targeting Iraqi and US forces. They include, they said, the lowered number of victims of attacks and fewer areas where attacks take place. Nonetheless, as they listened to the arguments of US Democratic Congresswoman Jane Harman, who suggested that by 2009 US combative engagement in Iraq should come to an end, the three officials were quick -- one after the other -- to protest. The three argued that it would be too early for the US to withdraw its military support for the Iraqi government. If it does so prematurely, they warned, the setback could be troubling. According to US Republican Congressman Christopher Shays, who also took part in the WEF-ME session on Iraq, a premature US withdrawal from Iraq, "after having turned it into a failed state", would be an unforgivable mistake and setback for a nation invaded by the US for the "wrong" reasons. The three Iraqi officials and Shays proposed three measures for consolidating gains made against Al-Qaeda. First, there needs to be a more effective control of Iraq's borders, to end the infiltration of Al-Qaeda operatives into Iraq. Otherwise, Zebari warned, the war between Al-Qaeda and the Iraqi government will continue. Second, Zebari called for sustained dialogue between Iran and the US over the situation in Iraq, despite tensions between Washington and Tehran over other issues. Third, Shays argued, the Iraqi tribal leaders who have been cooperating with the US and Iraqi army in their battle against Al-Qaeda operatives need to be rewarded. Also in need of encouragement, he added, are Iraqi political leaders who during the past few months demonstrated their will and ability to put aside political differences and cooperate in the interests of their country. Late last month the International Crisis Group (ICG) argued that, "the US military surge contributed to a significant reduction in violence, but has reached the limit it can achieve," in a two-part report entitled Iraq After the Surge. The ICG report suggested that two main measures be taken to contain any security deterioration. First, the Iraqi government should embrace political compromise by engaging "in negotiations with a further range of Iraqi actors, including still active insurgents," especially now that the "insurgency has been cut down to more manageable size and, after believing victory was within reach, now appears eager for negotiations with the US". Second, regional powers must come to the support of the Iraqi government. Al-Qaeda, the report suggested, "cannot be decisively defeated through US military means alone". "Without cooperation from regional actors, progress will be unsustainable, with un- satisfied groups seeking help from neighbouring states to promote their interests," the report added, specifically identifying the need to engage Iran and Syria. The report advocates the organisation of "provincial council elections no later than 1 October 2008" inclusive "of all parties, groups and individuals that publicly accept non-violence". The ICG further argues the need for Iraqi refugees and internally displaced to be encouraged to return to their homes, the need to provide free and equal media access to all prospective candidates, and the need for independent monitors to observe the elections. Crucially, the report suggests, there is a need to encourage reconciliation, remove all traces of sectarianism, establish effective power and wealth sharing, and protect minority rights within a context of federalism. Should the above fail, the ICG proposes the convocation "under UN auspices" of a broad and inclusive conference "bringing together Iraqi actors, regional states and key members of the international community with a view to reaching a new political compact".
